double down a fools bet?

[gerry_brown21]

im havin second thoughts

ok so ive been told that takin insurance is a fools bet....some can argue that......but what about doubling down...??? somebody please analyze this for me because people make it seem like its a sure fire thing that your going to get a 10 when you double down on a 11...or a 5 when you have ace 5.....so basically your takin 1:10 odds of getting that card....i know when the dealer is showing a 5 or a 6 he HAS THE CHANCE to bust..but alot of times he doesnt ..in fact a lot of times he makes a pretty darn good hand out of that 6 or a five...why would you take the extra loss by doubling down...greed...if thats the case... why didnt you bet alot if the first place...somebody help...my ? is....is double down a fools bet...how effective is it....and i would like to know from experience ...not logic or generalization...

[stainless steel rat]

Go to www.wizardofodds.com..

take 11 vs dealer's 10 as the example you quoted...

hit has an ev of +.1129

double has an ev of +.1797

Since the latter is bigger than the former, doubling makes more money in the long term...

[Ray]

If you play every hand correctly(basic strategy) that reduces the HA by
3.25 %. The dealer will bust on a 5,10 or 6,10 about 42% of the time. Your
chance to get a 10 on your 11 will average at about 30%. If you expect
to win money in blackjack, you must play every hand correctly and that
includes all the doubles, splits, etc.

11 vs 10 double.....the player is a 6:5 favorite
A,5 vs 4,5,6 up....the player is the favorite

Every time you fail to complete/play a good double you're giving the house more of an advantage than he already has.

[gerry_brown21]

so your sayin in 20 hands if you get 5 double down chances...your gonna double on all of them?..if you dont win all of your 5 shots then you have basically lost a fourth of your money...(in 20 hands)..and why on earth would you double against a dealer showing a ten or even a nine...or a two...which i think is the deadliest card in the shoe.......and my high roller question post.....the high roller would win way more money because he can climb out of a hole with a couple hands while the good blackjack player coudlnt...at least it would be a tie ...thats at least....but anyways i understand ev's and odds...and they work most of the time...but if you only get so many double down opportunities...can you really trust 40 or 35 percent or watever he said...

[Ray]

Ok...whatever you say.

[PJ]

gerry_brown21,
If you do understand the odds, and the odds are in YOUR favor, why not go with the odds?!

[stainless steel rat]

The only way to not lose is to not play the game. Yes, you can (and will) lose every double you make during a fixed period of time. But on average, you win more of them than you lose, and you come out ahead.

If you don't trust the math, don't play the game, unless you just want to "gamble".

I gamble with my wife when we flip a coin to decide which one gets to choose the place where we are going to eat out. When I go to a casino, at least when playing BJ, I have no intention of "gambling". I use BS to cut the house edge to the minimum and I count cards to take it beyond that to the point where I have an edge over the house. If you frick around with bogus plays, you do nothing but increase the house edge, or if you are actually playing with an advantage, you are making it shrink unnecessarily.

Trust the giants that have walked before you (before us also). They did the math, developed the systems, and told us how to use them correctly. Screw around by using voodoo BS plays and you might have no edge at all, even with counting.