Share your Journal Entries

[PLuv]

Just want to share some of my journal entries, perhaps others will post also:

As of 9/30/05

31 days of gambling (approx 4 to 7 hours each day)
$700-$1000 avg BR
$30-$50 avg bet
$700 biggest one day gain
$900 biggest one day loss
$3700 net total gain to date
$119 avg gain for each day played

Note 1: My biggest avg gain per day was when I was on vacation. A cruise trip and two seperate trips to the Caribbean. I do better when I'm out of the country. Go figure! These "vacation" wins have compensated for some of the losses in the US casinos.

Note 2: As of 9/30 of last yr (2004) my total gain was $1900. By 12/31/04 I had a net LOSS of $1500 (I dropped $3400 in 3 months, from October to December 04 ... Ouch!). So, the casinos won last year, and there's no guarantee they won't do it again this year, unless of course, I stop playing and quit while I'm ahead ... LOL! Not likely however since I enjoy this game too much. And even though I would rather win, last year's net loss of $1500 was acceptable (yeah right ... LOL) considering the good times and the tons of comps I received.

Note 3: Gonna have to force myself to go on vacation more often ... LOL!

Note 4: Btw, I am NOT a card counter by definition. I am a "table/hand reader." I play strictly BS and my betting spread is influenced by my table/hand "reads," not based on progressions.

[Surfteq]

I must admit that in addition to Counting CARDS,
I also Count HANDS,
because I Know that eventually,
especially in an Adequately Shuffled Double-Deck Game,
the Dealer is gonna Bust/Lose a HAND (25% of the Time),
and I'm gonna Win a HAND (25% of the Time)...
some call it the "gamblers fallacy",
but there is a Mathematical and Statistical BASIS for it...
After the Dealer Wins 3 HANDS in a Row,
he or she is Mathematically and Statistically "due" to BUST (25% of the Time = 1 out of 4 HANDS)...
This is the most Common "PATTERN" I experience in Double-Deck Games...
Also, in the 6 Deck Shoe Games,
the Dealer BUST Rate is usually about 20% (=1 out of 5 HANDS).

[Ray]

For all practical purposes the dealer bust rate for all games is approx
28%. If the dealer does not bust in three hands, he is not due to bust
in the next hand. Here is what is wrong with that logic: Suppose I lose
5 hands in a row, what should happen next? If I follow Surfteg's logic,
I should win 4.7 of the next five hands, because my win rate is 47.5.

I can't say that after 3 hands the dealer is due to bust or anything else.
This is true and it makes no difference if you count or not. History (what
just occured in the short term) has no meaning, is not an indicator of
anything whatsoever.

[Grifter]

Absoulutely right, Ray. The dealer is not mathematically "due" anything. His chances for busting the next hand are 28% before the deal, and precisely the applicable percentage for his up card after the deal.

Grifter