Positive Progressive is working for me overall

[BlackJack]

Does this work for you?

The method I've been using is to Start with 2 chips, on a win you would add half of the winnings back to the bet and keep the other half. Keep going until a loss or the 5th progression is reached, then collect the winnings and reset back to 2 chips.

I've heard both sides of the argument - It Works / It Doesn't work

For the most part, I've found it works if you stop at the 4th or 5th win, and you still have more chips than you started with if you have 2 or more winning hands and then suddenly lose.

Here's my 2 (+½) chip positive spread, starting with 2 chips not counting splits, blackjacks or doubles: (2-3-4-6-9-13)
Chips Remaining When You: Win / Lose
#1) Bet: 2 Win: 4 (2) Lose: 0 (-2)
#2) Bet: 3 Win: 7 (5) Lose: 1 (-1)
#3) Bet: 4 Win: 11 (9) Lose: 3 (1)
#4) Bet: 6 Win: 17 (15) Lose: 5 (3)
#5) Bet: 9 Win: 26 (24) Lose: 8 (6) (Recommended stop point)
#6) Bet: 13 Win: 39 (37) Lose: 13 (11)
#7) Bet: 19 Win: 58 (56) Lose: 20 (18)
#8) Bet: 28 Win: 86 (84) Lose: 30 (28)
#9) Bet: 42 Win: 128 (126) Lose: 44 (42)
#10) Bet: 63 Win: 191 (189) Lose: 65 (63)
(Units are in CHIPS, not dollars)

Even if you made it to the 4th win and lost you would still be ahead by +3. You never risk more than 2 of your own chips per session!

You only lose money if you don't make 2 wins in a row, and the loss is kept to a bare minimum. (A 1 chip starting point takes 3 wins in a row to start showing any profit and the subsequent profits are weak)

Also, a smaller winning streak can easily overcome a much longer losing streak!
Getting 13 losss in a row (2 chips each = 26) would be nearly erased by only winning 5 hands in a row.

Overall, this strategy has me winning way more than losing, plus it gets way more exciting during favorable runs. I also have more spare change to place some small side bets on my favorite BlackJack variation so far: Jack Magic. The odds of winning anything, even a 1:1 payout, are not that favorable (about 23%) but the time I made $120 on a $4 bet was fun!!!


I calculated many other progressions...
2 (+1) 2-3-4-5-6-...
3 (+1) 3-4-5-6-7-...
3 (+½) 3-4-6-9-13-...
4 (+1) 4-5-6-7-8-...
4 (+½) 4-6-9-13-19-...

and found that 2 (+½) offered the best risk management, and the others where you bid half of the previous wins can have explosive growth and also offer security after the second hand, but require a bigger bankroll to cover losing streaks.

Does anyone see any flaws in this idea? Thanks

[NYB]

You will lose more hands than you win in the long run. There is no way of getting around that fact.
Even the best players lose more hands than they win.
The hand after your first win,when you have raised your bet by 50%-you will lose more than 50% of the time.In a typical W,L,W,l,W,L sequence,you'll have won 6 chips and lost 9 chips.This sequence will occur much more often than a four hand streak,either winning or losing.
Play this system often enough and you'll burn thru your bankroll pretty quickly.

[jm2552]

FWIW, here's my take on progressions. Some of you might remember that I like progressions. I don't live and die by them, or swear they're the one way to win, but I do think they have their place. In some cases. I know the arguments for counting (and I agree with them, mathmatically), and I also agree that in the long run a progression will leave you holding your hat. But I think it does have it's uses for someone who doesn't want to count, for whatever reasons. Here's what works for me. The basic idea for a progression to work (for a time, anyway) is 1: not be greedy, 2: use a large enough bankroll to cover the fluctuations. Let's say someone plays twice a week. Using a 1K bankroll. Using a positive prog of 25-50-75 and reverting back to the start after the third bet even if it's a win. Yeah, I'm gonna be up, I'm gonna be down. At times I was down as low as 900. But "usually" the fluctuations will be in both directions. The key is (my key, anyway) to STOP at a +300 gain. With a 1K bankroll, you "usually" will hit that mark a lot of the time. You have enough of a cushion to grant you enough opportunities to get there. If you stop at that limit, and can do this twice a week, that's $600/wk clear. Enough to keep me in gasoline, cigarettes, scotch and a couple of dinners out with the wife. And maybe a couple of bucks toward the next time. Plus the total win is generally low enough to stay under the radar.

No, it doesn't work all the time, I've had my losses of course. But in general, this method seems to work good for me. I admit, I haven't kept an accurate record of W/L (I have to get around to doing that), but I know I haven't had to dip into my bank account for my weekly spending needs for a long while.

Yeah, it's a progression, but maybe more of a money management issue than a prog. Just some thoughts on my "system".

John

(PS:been away from here for quite a while, happy to be back. Hi Grif, Walt, Nickles and all the others I remember!)

(PPS: Still no Return Of the Bug?)

[LeonShuffle]

How long do need to stop for before you play again? A week? A day? An hour? Can you stand up, spin around and do it again? If so, don't do it twice a week. Do it 10 times a day, get rich and retire.

It's interesting that some people think raising their bets after wins helps them to win, and some people think raising their bets after losses helps them to win. They can't both be right, but they can both be wrong.

And welcome back.

[jm2552]

How long do need to stop for before you play again? A week? A day? An hour? Can you stand up, spin around and do it again? If so, don't do it twice a week. Do it 10 times a day, get rich and retire.



Not an option, because I would be "politely" asked to not play there again. One of the main reasons for my schedule (only twice a week) is to keep from becoming a "person of interest", so to speak. It's enough to keep me happy and interested. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this works for everybody, or that it works at all. I just know I'm happy with it, at least for the time being. Everything changes, but I got no complaints right now.

And thanks for the welcome back, really missed this forum.

[Grifter]

John - Welcome back....Good to hear from you again!!.......Grif'

[Dol Bil Tink]

If you can win some, lose some and still have fun, that’s great. A good money management system is essential. However, the big problem overlooked with any BJ progressive betting system that is not based on a counting method, is the Double Downs. What if you are at or near the top of a progression and get an opportunity to double and lose it? This can really set you back both financially and emotionally. Let this happen two or three times a session and you will rethink your scheme.

[jm2552]

True, but the chance of this happening at the bottom of the prog is exactly the same. That can occur anywhere. Don't get me wrong, it has happened to me at the last progression bet, and sure, it hurts. But also a sucessful double at the first or second step is a nice boost.

[Nickels_n_Bullets]

Howdy jm :o)

Been caught up in other hobbies, and haven't been around.
Still playing, but not as frequently as before.

As some might remember, I have a website, with some of it devoted to Progressions. Not that I believe in them, but as a cover to serious play, and the occasional fun-time distraction at a low price table. I prefer Progressions at a shoe, not on CSM's, and like 5-term types like 2-3-4-6-8 which amount to 10-15-20-30-40 on a 10 minimum betting reds.

About all one can do is slow the bleeding by not parlaying. This when the table gets choppy like WLWLWLWWLLWWLL. As most know this is a matter of luck, however one should use Basic for a fightin chance, maybe a score-based quit-point based upon counting. IMHO a key for the progression player is longevity, and that usually means not to ramp up the bets quickly. A look at Oscar's grind will bare some of this out.

At expensive tables like 25 minimum (here in CT, this is the rule not the exception) something like 25-35-50-75-100 can keep the cost of a choppy table down to 10. Nonetheless this is for farts and giggles when ahead on a good day.

I enjoy them, but realize I'm disadvantaged. Keeping score, and wagering according to score is the only way to keep an advantage... Luck plays a part in both styles of play.

[jm2552]

Hi Nickles, glad to see you're back here also. Always appreciated your comments/thoughts. Well, I hope to get up there Wednesday or so, after a very (VERY) down session last time. Like I said, everything changes!


Oh, and seriously, has the Bug been seen or heard this last year? You have to admit, that whole period was very entertaining!

[Nickels_n_Bullets]

No, haven't seen the Houston Chess Champ around these parts in a while. The weather was not kind in those parts last year... so don't know if he has much chance to play at Isle of Capri. Some rules that were good for the player are altered with the re-build along the Gulf Coast Casinos. Heard mixed stories about playability at new facilities.