Question about True Count

[Daysleeper]

Dear Renzey,

(though I am addressing this to renzey all knowledgable answers are welcome)

in your blackjack bluebook you stated that a TC of 2 or above means you are a "money favourite" on the next hand. what does money favourite mean? does it mean I will win more than fifty percent of my hands at a true count of 2 or above? or does it mean that because of additional occurences of blackjack I will make more than I lose, despite losing more than fifty percent of my hands? please forgive the rambling quality of my question and much appreciation for your book.

- daysleeper

[Renzey]

Daysleeper -- The term "money favorite" means that on average, you'll win more money than you'll lose. A good blackjack example would be the Insurance bet when the true count is say, +4. At that time, although only 34% of the cards are 10's, getting 2-to-1 payoff odds makes you a money favorite while still being an "odds on" dog to win the bet.

At a true count of +2, most shoe games will put the player at about a 0.65% advantage (0.50% of it being due to the elavated count and 0.15% due to profitable basic strategy departures at that point). At +2 true, the player will still lose more hands than he'll win, but he more than makes it up from extra blackjacks and more profitable double downs. The player just barely begins to be a money favorite at +1 true (insignificantly so), and does well to begin ramping up his bats at +1.5 true. The count needs to get quite high before the player stands to win more hands than lose and frankly, I don't know the exact count at which this occurs.

With the KISS Count, on an average, the true count vs. running count in a shoe game runs like this:

20 = +1.5
21 = +2.0
22 = +2.3
23 = +2.7
24 = +3.0
25 = +3.3
26 = +3.7
27 = +4.0
28 = +4.5
29 = +5.0
30 = +6.0

[STUARTCBRANDT]

I am wondering which is harder to learn, Video poker, or BlackJack,
Bob Dancer seems to imply folks can make money in VP, but VP seems to be much more complex then Blackjack, I have his Winpoker software and I am not convinced you can make money with VP.
Now on to Blackjack, there is no real game near me, Harrahs Cherokee NC has a type of BJ with a dealer and it is Video, for some reason I like real Cards am I nuts or what can one do well with this video BJ with a dealer.
Sorry I Spelled your name wrong.

Thankyou

Stuart Brandt

[ihate17]

I am wondering which is harder to learn, Video poker, or BlackJack,
Bob Dancer seems to imply folks can make money in VP, but VP seems to be much more complex then Blackjack, I have his Winpoker software and I am not convinced you can make money with VP.
Now on to Blackjack, there is no real game near me, Harrahs Cherokee NC has a type of BJ with a dealer and it is Video, for some reason I like real Cards am I nuts or what can one do well with this video BJ with a dealer.
Sorry I Spelled your name wrong.

Thankyou

Stuart Brandt

Stuart
I believe the machine used at Harrahs Cherokee shuffles after each hand. If that is the case, you can never get an advantage over the machine.

ihate17