Do you think this game is beatable?

[Stick]

8 deck shoe
BJ pays 2-1
Double on any two
Double after splitting
Split up to 4x
Only split aces once
Dealer hits soft 17
late surrender
Bet spread from 1-200 with no heat whatsoever
Reshuffle after 40 cards (you can also request a reshuffle at any point in the deck, so any time the count goes sour you can simply get a reshuffle)

I think I included everything, let me know if I forgot something...

Stick

[Ray]

Not with card counting because you only see about 9% of the cards which just simply is not enough. The 200-1 spread and the fact that you can request a shuffle anytime is of no value because card counting of only 40 cards is not reliable IMO. The 2:1 BJ payout and late surrender eliminates the HA. Are you sure about the 2:1 payout on BJ?

Example: Normal HA= .5, but 2:1 is double the pay-out of 3:2 for a reduction in the HA by an additional 2.25%. That would put you at a 1.75 advantage over the house as a B/S player. That just don't sound right............

[Stick]

I'm on meds right now, no idea why I put 2-1, 3-2 is right for bj payout.

Stick

[Ray]

All players lose.................

[Stick]

All players lose? What do you mean? Remember, meds, be clear lol I know 40 cards isn't much but if indeed the HA off the top of the deck is less than .5 and I can bet $1 until I get a count of +whatever, don't think it's possible? I've had a count +2x, which is a TC of +3ish, where I can suddenly bet $200 a pop, no good?

Stick

[Ray]

Think about it this way: Your playing a game with 9% penetration and that
means that 91% of all cards are effectively behind the cut card. After you
receive that once in a blue moon +2 or whatever, you must assume that the
extra 10's in the deck have an equal distribution accross about 7.5 decks. How many will be available to you in the next hand or two? Extremely high risk situation and totally impractical. What I have just described is why penetration is so important to a card counter.