Here is how it all started with my new system

[AlexD30]

Some years ago an idea come up in my head and I try it in computer playing in games ranging from Single, Double, 4D, 6D, 8D :roll: and I even try it ag 8) ainst a setup of 12D too. :wink: I had between one player all the way to full table at times. I did not use any stop loss or stop win. I bet strictly by a method that I discovered :idea: based I my observation during many ye :? ars playing strictly by the count. Playing was done according to basic strategy alone. Since then I improved a little and at this time I do play by the true count if I’m in single or double decks else I still use basic for playing with probably one single exception and that is the INSURANCE and probably the 16 vs. T. :twisted:

Here are my original stats from that time:
Current bankroll: $14, :wink: 030
Starting bankroll: $5,000
Largest bankroll: $14,030
Smallest bankroll: $4155
Money wagered: $245,005
Winnings: $9 :lol: ,030 or 3.69%
Number of rounds played: 8411
Number of hands played: 8609
Number of hands busted: 12 :P 74 14.80%
Hours 112
Hands per Hour 75

Base Unit $5
Max Bet $350
Average Bet $28

$ per Hour as INCOME $81

Wins 2 :wink: 8 :lol: 42
Loss 3863
Push 651
DDW 496
DDL 301
DDP 66
BJ-Win 372 :wink:
BJ-Push 13


If you calculate the house edge from the above stats you can see that the house it enjoyed about 0.82% edge over the 8609 hands. Taking in account the double downs and BJ all together I still would have been a loser if I would have had flat bet.

After seeing the results I couldn’t believe my eyes, I was skeptical keep telling my self the sam :D ple size is to small to have any valid conclusions. However, one day I decide to take a leave without pay from my regular job and travel to Vegas. I decide that I will stay ther :? e until I play at least 100 or more hours :cry: to match the computer sims that I did at home. Now, believe it or not after about 100 hours of play during my new experiment I come out with about $75 per hour profit for a total of $7,5 :wink: 00. :P Very close indeed with my testing that I did at home. I did stay in Vegas for about two weeks until I was able to accumulate 100 hours. Did play all kind of games: 1D, 2D, 4D and 6D wile betting by my new method and playing basic strategy.

Coming home from that trip I decide to continue my computer testing to at least 100,000 hands or even more to have some kind of assurance that my new system works in the long run. Well, I did not have patience playing on computer anymore after testing my method in real games but I did continue traveling every weekend in Vegas and southern CA. I put about 80 hours a month for many yeas now and I never lost. I come home with more money then I start with and every weekend and the average per hour income reflects my original findings of around $75 to $80. I suspect that by now I have over 300,000 hands in about 200 trips and the steady income is coming like a clock.

I have to be honest :wink: and tell you that I programmed a computer using C language to run a simulation of my system and it fails! Go figure!? I use a standard :idea: random generator for the shuffle routine and my system fails. It loses money over the long run and it puzzles me how is that I win in real games for so long time. :roll: I have no explanation whatsoever but I assure you that I will keep playing without fear. The real Vegas play stats resembles very closely my original computer play.

The system is some king of combination between Oscar’s :roll: Grind and Walter’s but is not a pure Oscar neither is a Walter system too. I adapt the play during live games according of the :lol: circumstances at the moment and I suspect that is that I cannot program into my code to simulate.

I just want to share this with you and see what is your opinion.

[colin563]

Hi Alex

Can you tell us what money management / progression you use :?: ? or are you wanting to keep that to your self ( keeping your cards close to your chest :) ) its great results you have been having, I would for one would love to go full time playing blackjack in stead of a lousy 9-5 job, and making " $ per Hour as INCOME $81 " when and where and if I want sounds good to me :shock: , pardon the pun but you sound like a advert for one of Silverthornes systems :lol: excellant post :!:

Cheers

Colin

[Lord_Li]

Hey Alex,

Care to explain you system of play? Without going overboard :)
To what extent do you adapt your system during live play 'according to the circumstances'?

Thanks for sharing,
Li.

[AlexD30]

Hey Alex,

Care to explain you system of play? Without going overboard :)
To what extent do you adapt your system during live play 'according to the circumstances'?

Thanks for sharing,
Li.

:arrow: Play Oscar’s Grind. I assume that most of you already know how to do it.

:!: Dropping your bet at a certain point in a losing streak to reduce further potential losses by cutting your bet down the middle. However, balance is important -- do it too soon or too often, and your will not be able to bounce back. My rule limits the reduction of 12 unit bets only and requires to hold off until you have lost such a bet. Keep halving as soon you’ve reached the second 12 x UNIT but at the same time you have to cut in two the amount you have to recuperate. For example, if you are betting 12 units while being down 30 from previous rounds and lose that 12 unit bet then your next bet will be half of 12 that is 6 but now have to recuperate 15 units in the first attempt and go for the rest starting from 6 again. You keep halving as long as your bet gets around 12 units. At the same time, you have to keep track at what level you are at and how many halves you still have to work on.

:!: If you don’t do this trick then you stand the possibility to get into big/huge bets as predicted by Allen Wilson’s study. That study says that in about 1 in 5000 sequences or 25,000 hands you will sometime will reach 500 units bets. To avoid this you should use my advice, and if I’m not mistaken another study has been done in the past that confirm what I’m telling you. The odds of reaching your goal of one unit per sequence are greatly improved. In our case we try to recuperate half and then the second half + one unit. It takes longer but puts us in a position to play at some astronomical odds against losing. Don’t let yourself fall to far behind into compounding big bets.

:!: According to my results in live games, I get around 12 to 15 units per hour in profit over the long run. The most I have had in the past was that I needed to cut my bet in half 6 times and work on 6 separate recoveries plus one unit at the end. If I wouldn’t have cut the first 12 units in half I would have reached an astronomical bet by the end of sequence. This is positively confirmed by computer simulations too.

:!: You have to understand that once you have reached the one unit goal, the game starts over again. That’s a done deal. Every time you reach your goal of one unit you are again at the very beginning of your original odds. If you have to cut the bet in two and work on two separate sequences then you are also cutting the odds of getting into deep holes too. Sometime you have to work in small steps to reach your goal of one unit. It will take a little longer to reach that goal but if you follow my advice you will make it. If you played for example 10,000 hands during which you made around 1,500 units profit on average, that’s a done deal too. What has happed in the past has got nothing to do with what will happen in the future.

[chadinc]

Alex,
I'm brand new to all this and trying to soak up as much as I can. I'm one of the few that is not familiar with Oscar's Grind. Could you clue me in or point me somewhere to read up on it?
Thanks,
Chad :D

[colin563]

Hi Chad

Some info links for you :wink:

Oscar's Grind, Author: Rob McGarvey
http://www.top-gambler.com/Oscars-Grind.html

Modern Progression Systems by Mike Lea
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog2.htm

[chadinc]

Thanks Colin. Interesting reading. Think I'm trying to take in to much at once. My head is starting to hurt. :shock:
Perhaps someone could start a new "pole" topic with the different progressive systems listed (Martengale, Dahl, etc. etc.) and see which is most popular overall within this forum. Plan to go to the casino this weekend and trying to decide a strategy.
Chad :D

[AlexD30]

Three hours of grueling session tonight
I was playing tonight in southern CA, having a friend with me to keep track of the outcomes of the hands. I was keep saying that regardless of the initial house edge if one can follow my system to conclusion he then will make money every time.

Well, I split the bet in half twice tonight to avoid getting myself deep into the red and I managed to come out ahead after 3.5 hours with and edge for the money of about 1.6% taking into account that the house has enjoyed a 8.5% over the course of 265 hands. Any player that would have flat bet into that game would have lost over $1,000. I made $56/hour in a horrible/hellish game that I never encountered for long time before. I know that I can manage to beat any game that has up to 5% edge but to win only 33% of the hands it has been a unique experience.

Here are the stats that my friend kept.


Wins 68
Loss = 113
Push = 16
DD wins = 17
DD losses = 20
BJ-Win = 18
BJ-Push = 13

ACTION $11,930
Average Bet = $45
Profit = $198
My Edge = 1.66%
House Edge = (8.51%)
Profit per hour = $56
TOTAL HANDS 265
TOTAL HOURS 3.5

As you can see I was able to overcome the house over those 265 hands and come out ahead with a 1.66% for the money while the house enjoyed a 8.5% advantage (taking into account all the double downs and BJs from hell)

[gocabeza]

I'm confused on what you mean by cutting in half when you reach 12. Is 12 the number of units that you are down or is 12 the number of units of your last bet? Thanks