Question from (somewhat) Newbie

[jm2552]

OK, I'm not truly a newbie, I've played for a while here in CT and in AC, but I've only recently gotten "serious" about using effective play.

I've searched the forums and could not find reference to this, but I'm sure there's folks here who know of it. I've just read Bruce Irwin's 1983 book "The Winner's Edge", where he discusses his "sequence" method of bets. Also called "staking", you set a pre-determined amount to win, and using his 40% - 20% - 20% - 20% method, achieve that amount at the end of the sequence. I'm no dummy, and I was skeptical, but I've been using this in a simulation for a week now, and it's driving me crazy, because it (so far) always does what it should. No matter what the pre-determined amount is. I've used it for amounts ranging from 50$ to $1000, and it worked. Sometimes the sequence was completed in as little as five steps (bets), other times as much as 46 steps. But each time, it worked.

My question is, since I am new to this part of BJ, is this an acceptable method? Has it been proven or disproven in the past? (As I said, the book was 1983) I feel foolish for believing it, but it's been proving itself for a week now.

And part two of the question, the system requires you to use a small notepad just to record the sequence/amount of the your bets. Now, I've read the other forum messages on note taking at the tables, but I'm still not clear if it is allowed or not. Say in AC, or CT.

So far this works at home, but I'm dying to try it out for real. However, I'd prefer to not be "politely" ejected! Any thoughts?

PS: Sorry for the length of this post, especially from a newcomer, but I've just discovered this board, and I'm really overwhelmed by the expertise and knowledge here. Thanks in advance,

John

[Renzey]

NEWBIE: I'm not familiar with the B/J book you mentioned, but it sounds as if it employs a "cancellation" betting system. That is, you write down a particular number sequence in advance, then bet the sum of the first and last number. With each win, you cross out those two numbers and with each loss, you add that particular bet size to the end of the sequence -- then always bet the sum of the first and last number.
Is that how it works? If it is, then you will have a very high probability of cancelling out the sequence, thereby winning the prescribed amount -- and will have a very low probability of being brutally wiped out. Eventually, the brutal wipeout inevitably occurs -- and the overall math is such that it will consume all previous profits plus an additional amount equal to the house edge on that particular game.
If I've described the wrong approach, then I've rambled on for no reason.

[jm2552]

Renzy, yes, that is almost exactly what it is. I understand this is known as the Labby method? Bruce Irwin's difference is that instead of betting the first and last amount to begin with, you only bet the first, which is 40% of your desired goal (the next three being 20% each). If you win, that is crossed off, and then the next and last combined is wagered. If you had lost, then that amount would be added to the end, and you would then bet only the first of the sequence. He (Irwin) claims this better protects your bankroll.

I see your point about the inevitable loss. Have to keep testing until I hit it. Maybe that will scare me off :lol:

Also, I don't see how this could be used if a small notepad is not allowed at the table. I've been able to visualize smaller string sequences, but the larger ones are impossible.

Thanks again,

John

[jm2552]

Well, I've been working with the cancellation method described, and I've been more than fairly competent (maybe 90%) at doing it mentally. So, maybe no need for a note pad after all. Just have to keep my mutterings to a minimum, and hope nobody talks to me at the same time :)

I've tried this at roulette, and of course it works the same, because it's a "money management" thing instead of a playing strategy. As far as BJ, I use the BS, and have been successful so far. I've also found that if the sequence becomes too long mentally, I can break it off there, calculate my losses, and move to a fresh start and recoup.

Wife and I are going to AC in October, but I'm thinking of trying this up here (CT) at the Indian casinos this week or next.

Any cautions about this? I mean it works so well in the sim, but I'm wondering how it will play out in a "real" atmosphere.

Alos, Renzy's inevitable scenario is taken well to heart, I just feel like I gotta play the odds this time!

John