Trip Report: Harrahs E. Chicago

[jmpoehler]

I recently got back from Harrah's East Chicago and was pretty disappointed with my experience. First they only had maybe 5-10 BJ tables in the whole place, and the lowest table limit was $15 at 2 tables on a Sunday afternoon (one was full and the other had one "spot" open - sandwiched between two rather large people - luckily for me - they lost their money faster than they could say "super-size" me).

This is my story, I sat down with $200 and bet 15-15-20-25 progression, I play perfect BS w/ some AS thrown in. I only get a chance to visit casinos on vacation (2-3 a year) so this was a treat to get to play. I started off really well and was up $215 after my second shoe. After that I proceeded to have a terrible run and within an hour and a half lost my winnings (215) and my original limit (200). In retrospect the best thing to have done, is get up and walk away when I was ahead, but only playing for 15-30 minutes, didn't seem plausible, since part of the fun is getting to play, and I only do it a couple of times a year.

I know it would be best to bring more money to the table when the limit is higher, but as I see it, I can't lose what I don't have on the table! I think it is nonsense to get up and go to another table (for one the BJ tables were crowded and for two what makes the difference if you are at one table or another!)

Any comments would be appreciated on how you would have handled the situation? Do you set a limit that you will lose, and do you walk away when you win X amount of dollars?

[Sage]

You just got hit with standard deviation. The bank roll was too small to carry that size bet. A swing of +/- $400 with that average bet size on the progression is not unusual. (Not nice! But not unusual)
Either cut the bet size or take more money to play with. :roll:

[slimeo]

But HOW will he carry all those bills from a bigger bankroll??? :roll:

[jm2552]

You just got hit with standard deviation. The bank roll was too small to carry that size bet. A swing of +/- $400 with that average bet size on the progression is not unusual.

Hmmm, Sage, what's the formula (or is there one) to determine that standard deviation swing? Let's say, a progression of 25-35-50. What might be the "swing" for that?

John

[Sage]

BJ is a game of ups & downs in your $$ BR. You must have enough BR to ride out the negative swings to stay in the game.
Don Schlesinger in his book "BJ Attack" has a section on bankroll and Standard Deviation (SD). If you remember your math class, One SD will cover 68% of the results, two SD will cover 95.4% and three SD will cover 99.7% (or about all). Let's use 2 SD as acceptable. (SD is plus or minus EV, but most of the time EV$ is so small it can be ignored)
The formula is SD = 1.1 x (hands played) ½ x bet $
So let's take 144 hands (makes the math easy, square root of 144 is 12)
144 hands at 60 hands per hour is about 2 1/2 hours.
Using the 25, 35, 50 progression. (Use the $$ second step of the progression.)
SD = 1.1 x 12 x 35, = 462.
Assume a 95% coverage, which is 2 SD = $924.
So with about $900 you could play 25, 35, 50 for about 2 1/2 hours and not bottom out.
It’s interesting to note, that the two major reasons players lose at BJ are:
1. Not playing BS :cry:
2. not have enough BR to ride out the negative SD :cry:

[jm2552]

So with about $900 you could play 25, 35, 50 for about 2 1/2 hours and not bottom out.
It’s interesting to note, that the two major reasons players lose at BJ are:
1. Not playing BS :cry:
2. not have enough BR to ride out the negative SD :cry:

Scary. I've been doing it with a 400-500 BR. A bit ahead of the game right now, but there have been times that I've bottomed out. Your second reason players lose is on target. I wonder how many "bottom outs" would have turned around with a few extra hundred.

On a weekly basis, playing twice, I've been ahead so far. But I think it's time to tap the bank account for a little more security. Thanks for the math enlightenment Sage.

John

[jmpoehler]

Sage, I definitely believe what you say, the math makes sense.

The problem I have is the penny-pincher tight-wad part of my brain saying don't bring that much money to the table. I would have to put down $500 at the table for my progression (that is 2.5 more than I brought).

Say I would have brought that much money and lost $200 (like I did), I am sitting now at $300 - since the shoes before don't effect the current shoe, I definitely could continue the bad luck and lose the rest of the money! Plus once you have lost so much money, sometimes it seems impossible to get it back. I big bet could wipe you out (splitting severals times and doubling down).

I know what your answer is going to be to this post, and I probably will agree with what you will say. It is a lot easier on the ego (and pocket book) though when you only lose $200 compared to $500. I guess I need to just discipline myself a little more, and lay the money on the table (or bet smaller!).

[Sage]

The Book, "BJ, Take the Money & Run" by Henry Tamburin, makes the point; be happy with little wins as they add up better than big losses.
A formula to get a handle on the probability % of a win is:
% Probability = Bankroll divided by Bankroll plus expected Win.
Let's take your example;
BR = $200, let's set a goal of winning 50% or $100.
What are the chances of being successful?
%P = BR/BR + Win
% = 200 / 200 + 100 = 66% chance, not great.
However, I like to get the % up around 75%.
So % = BR/BR + W = 3/4 or 75%
Thus for a 75% chance of winning $100, you need a BR of $300, and smaller $$ bets plus play perfect BS.. BUT don't forget the extra 25% that could wipe out the BR. Also when (if) you hit the magic $100 win, take a walk and enjoy the win.

[jm2552]

A formula to get a handle on the probability % of a win is:
% Probability = Bankroll divided by Bankroll plus expected Win.


Interesting little calculation there, Sage. If I take what I'm using, usually $400, and play till expected win of $500 (which has happened enough times to keep me happy) my probability is a scary 44%. But, if I were to make the BR $5000, the figure jumps to 90%! Fun to play with this calc.

I know my BR of $400 for a expected win of $500 is laughable, but like I said, it's been successful enough to keep me going back.

Thanks for the figures, Sage.

John

[midnite]

JM, think in terms of sessions. Your "total" win goal is $500.
Your session win goal is $100.
Using Sages calculations, with a $400 BR, you should win the $100, 80% of the time.
If you win the first $100, go for the second $100. You still have a 80% chance of making it. Of course that 20% chance of losing your $400, can jump up and bite you in the butt anytime.

[jm2552]

So, breaking it down into sessions, you would "mentally" start over after the first session goal. That's interesiting, and I think I'm going to try it. Reminds of when I was hooked on the "cancellation" progression. I'd play small segments until the desired goal.

BTW, does anyone at all use cancellation? I never hear it mentioned. I had good success on sims with it, but at the table it sometimes got hard to remember a long "string". I guess that's why it's not that common.

Thanks Midnite, good suggestion.

[Grifter]

Midnite – IMHO your advice (?) to John is meaningless. Please explain to us how setting these “mini-win” goals mathematically changes anything in regard to expected win/loss.

Or look at it this way. When John walks into a casino with “x” bankroll to play “y” game with “z” average bet, his EW/L, SD, and ROR are already established for “aa” number of hours/hands….Please explain how your hypothetical setting of win goals changes any of these numbers.

Regards…..Grifter

[midnite]

Grifter- It doesn't change the numbers. I didn't say that it did. The player is still trying to win $500, with a $400 bankroll and that is a tall order. What playing is sessions "may" change, is the players mind-set and confidence. Buying in at the table with $20 and a win goal of $1,000, is an unrealistic goal. Winning $100, with a $400 bankroll, is not. And no, a proper "mind-set" will not change that 10-6 that the dealer just gave you, into a 20 or 21.... However, I don't think going to the casino (or anywhere else) with a winning attitude and confidence, is a bad thing. To some people it is all about numbers. Everything has to be black or white. There can be no gray areas. But there are gray areas. Like the cop that pulls you over for going 5 mph over the limit. He may give you a ticket or he may let you off with a warning. You attitude may be the difference. If you are hostile and arrogant and want to argue, he will be reaching for his pen. Look at a prize fight, where both opponents are evenly matched. By the numbers, it should end in a draw, but seldom does. One fighter will want it, more than the other. He has a better mind-set, attitude, more confidence, heart, or will to win, whatever you want to call it. Yes, BJ is a game of mathmatics and numbers, but there is also a psychological side. Why do the casinos refer to the $5 chips as nickels and the $25 chips as quarters ? They want you to think they have less value, than they do. If you go to the casino thinking that you are going to lose........You are probably going to be right.

Regards
Midnite

[Ray]

Midnight: What grifter has said can be understood by thinking of a
plot of a 3-4 hour session. Here we have a visual of what goes on in
the session; all the ups and downs that we call standard deviation.
There is an infinite number of ways the SD can play out for any one
session/time period. Example: You could have 50-100 very small
swings or maybe only 3-4 major swings. either way they add up to
your expected SD. The very best you can say is that you have this
X% chance of not going down the drain. You can not say that you
have any chance whatever to win some amount.

Ray

[Grifter]

Precisely, Ray, and that is what Midnite is totally failing to understand. John has already admitted his bankroll is so undersized it is laughable, and as you correctly stated, “You can not say that you have any chance whatever to win some amount.”

To me this is a no win situation, not to be played and it certainly will not be changed by Midnite’s “phycho babble” about grey areas, attitude, will to win, confidence, heart, etc. ad nauseum.

Midnite is not an advantage player so maybe his advice to John and the psychological mumbo-jumbo was a way of saying, “Play it my way and you will still lose, but have a more positive attitude about your losing.” 8)

Regards….Grifter

[Ray]

But, There is one theory that says you can determine a prob. of success
based on a 90 minute session that someone is testing. It says to
some extent; I think 80% best I can remember, you have a chance to
win some amount. Is that you Sage?

[jm2552]

Precisely, Ray, and that is what Midnite is totally failing to understand. John has already admitted his bankroll is so undersized it is laughable, and as you correctly stated, “You can not say that you have any chance whatever to win some amount.”

Hi Grifter, glad to see ya back, hope you're doing better.

The funny thing about all this, concerning the BR, is that most of the time it works pretty well. Sometimes I use a 500 or 600 BR, but mostly it's the 400. I seem to bottom out maybe three out of ten sessions, which still leaves a very comfortable profit. I don't know, maybe at this point it is pure luck, and my house of cards (pun intended) will eventually collapse.

When I used to play the cancellation method I used a BR of $5000 and never came close to the busting point. So I just kept winnowing it down from there.
I must admit, it is scary at times tho.

John

[Sage]

Hi Grifter, glad your back.
I agree that BJ is a game of numbers, math with lots of luck mixed in.
I completely agree with your statement:
When John walks into a casino with “x” bankroll to play “y” game with “z” average bet, his EW/L, SD, and ROR are already established for “aa” number of hours/hands…. >
But let’s relook at Midnite comments:
(Sometimes one can understand a concept better if it is pushed to a ridiculous extreme.)
Let’s say that John, with his established EW/L, SD, and ROR, hits his projected 80% win. Then he gets up from the table and walks to the parking lot, puts the $100 win in the car glove box, sits there for 5 minutes and then walks back into the Casino. As he enters for the second time, does he have the same EW/L, SD, and ROR already established for “aa” number of hours/hands??

[jm2552]

Let’s say that John, with his established EW/L, SD, and ROR, hits his projected 80% win. Then he gets up from the table and walks to the parking lot, puts the $100 win in the car glove box, sits there for 5 minutes and then walks back into the Casino. As he enters for the second time, does he have the same EW/L, SD, and ROR already established for “aa” number of hours/hands??

And don't forget that five minutes after walking back in, the local crackhead has broken into my car, taken the money, bought $50 worth of drugs, and won $5000 at roulette with the other $50 :lol:

John

[Grifter]

Sage/John – That is correct…..the “numbers” are the same for the “aa” hands. You can look at it this way. Consider the number of hands you played to win the first $100 as part of the “aa” amount you used in your calculations, therefore you are now $100 on the plus side of your SD bell curve. Perhaps the next time through the door you will lose the $400, and now you are down $300 on the bell curve…..etc., etc.

You wanted to relook at Midnite’s comments……It makes absolutely no difference whether you play your ‘session’ straight through, or stop and “celebrate” (and get “warm and fuzzy” with yourself) every time you get ahead $100……that is just “fluff”.

And of course if you take his suggestion, and the crackhead steals every $100 you stash in your glove box you will never make your win goal :wink:

Grif’

[Ray]

Taking a closer look at the above example, EW/L,SD and ROR=hrs/hnds
( 300BR @ 75%P for $100 profit )

Lets say we play 100 sessions and find that we win $100 for 75 sessions
and lose $300 for 25 sessions. My question to you becomes: Why play?
Because 75 * $100 = $7500 and 25 * $300 = $7500. You may decide
to put a stop limit on losing sessions and my question is: What is that
limit? If you make it $250, for example, you could never be sure that
you have not just given up on a big come back(one of those 75). If you
were extremely lucky, you may come out close to even, but don't bet
the farm on it.

One other thing: History don't count in blackjack unless your a card cntr.
For Example: You walk in the casino and have some expectation and sit
down to play. IF you lose/win the first hand your expectations are not
the same; they begin as of now and change with every hand thereafter.

If you play for an hour and find that you are dead even, then what occured in the previous hour is history and not a consideration for
anything.


Ray

[Ray]

A good strategy: The above strategy is not a long term winner, but
for the person who just likes to play 2-3 times a year while on vacation,
it's a very good strategy. If you follow all of the recommendations that
Sage has made, you will have the right BR and the best chance to win
for occasional play. Who knows? You may never hit that 25% time.

Ray