Is it possible to win consistently without counting?

[Andy]

I have always enjoyed playing BJ. I want to get into it a bit more and have really started studying the BS and am getting good at that. I understand the concept of the Hi-Lo counting system. But my question is, is it possible to win consistently without counting? I would like to start out using just the BS and then learning some more AS down the road. I am thinking about buying the BJ Bluebook II as well.

Thanks,
Andy

[Ray]

I don't think it's possible to win consistently regardless of your skill level.
However, you can go a long way toward being a winner by improving on
how much you know about the game. The more you know, the better your
chances. Win sessions must exceed loss sessions; not a complex reality to
say the least. Some say use win/loss goals. Well, only "Mystics" play that
game of wishfull thinking and as we have seen in more than one post, this
is not the way............................

[Helter]

Nope. At least, not statistically. Depending on the rules of the particular game, I believe the house advantage when you're playing BS ranges from about .95% (let's just say 1%), to .20%. I mean, it's possible to construct a BJ game that gives the player the edge, if you're using a single deck, but I can't imagine why any casino would.
So what that means is that over a sufficiently long period of time (meaning, a sufficiently large number of hands) you will lose money. Of course, if you pick your table carefully, and can get the house edge down low enough (which is decided again, by the rules of the game), and play flawlessly, you'll keep your loses pretty low (again, this is over the long run), and if you really enjoy the game, that might be an acceptable cost to you.
But in the end, BS is simply the best way to play a losing game. In order to consistently win you need some way to vary your play to account for changes in the deck.

Edit--
I should point out that I don't have anywhere near the real life experience that others here do, I just like, and have faith in, numbers.

[Nickels_n_Bullets]

Consistently win.... I would say no overall. But you can have an edge over the house for more than 50% of the time you play IF you manage your play conditions, your strategy, and your bankroll. And of course, if you ONLY play when YOU have the advantage, most any simple method as described elsewhere in the BJ Forum, looks even better. Basic Strategy doesn't have a player advantage, so the phrases "consistent winner" and "consistant good luck" are one and the same. IMHO you need a player advantage to be a more consistant winner than lucky.

I define consistency as a 2:1 ratio of W:L and I look at 70/30 as being consistant. Thats me... other people have their own or math proven definition.

N&B

[Grifter]

Andy - I agree with Ray, Helter, and N&B, but I'll post this anyway so you know all four of us are in agreement as to the answer to your question. IMHO, you can not win consistantly without counting. Helter probably says it best, "BS is simply the best way to play a losing game."

Grifter

[Ray]

Helter: Your point on average disadvantage reminds me of this past Jan &
Feb. I had a run of two months where it was like I could not make doubles
or I just didn't get the chance to try. You're not going to win when that
happens and when you look at HA vs player rules it's not hard to see why.

Starting out with a HA of 8%, you can reduce that by 3,1/4% by playing
perfect B/S; blackjacks gets another 2,1/4% and my double troubles gets
another 1,1/2%. The other mix of rules gets it down to the typical .5%.

Now consider the situation where you play a complete shoe without any
blackjacks or double opportunities. Thats 2,1/4 + 1,1/2 + .5= 4,1/4%
underdog. Now, it's not likely that you'll have the situation where you
don't get at least one of these favorable conditions, but I can tell you for
an absolute fact that you will fail to get one of these pretty often. Too
often back in Jan/Feb...................

Ray

[PJ]

The first six months of last year I was averaging $18 per hour playing basic strategy. I guess standard deviation caught up with me 'cause in September things started going bad with a few consecutive losing trips. I'm a believer that BS alone is not a long term money making concept.