Thomason progression

[tuffy88]

I have been playing blackjack for years. After reading Fred Renzy's Blackjack Bluebook I have been using the Ace-Ten front count for over two years. I read about Walter Thomason's book, 21st Century Blackjack,
here and ordered it from Amazon. Just finished reading it. I decided to practice it on my computer for at least two hours a day and post a running count of the results here. Will start now, and report results for 30 days. Won't know for 30 days how many hands that will be.

Will use the $10-15-20-25 dollar progression. Increase bets on a win. Back to $10 on a loss. After 4 wins bet $25 until a loss. In other words Thompason's rules.

Game rules:
1. Stand on soft 17.
2. 3 to payoff on blackjack.
3. Double down on any two cards, and double down after splitting pairs,4.

[tuffy88]

4. Resplit to 4 times. No resplitting of Aces.
5. No surrender.

Will start playing now for at least 2 hours. Will play at least 2 hours a day for 30 days. Will post results each day. Not long enough for a real sample, but should be interesting.

Charles

[tuffy88]

Forgot to mention: 6 decks. Quit after 4 straight losses, but continue playing at $25 per bet after 4 straight wins until losing. Then back to $10 bet.

DAY 1 results.
(1) hours played 2 hrs. 31 min.
(2) total bet $3810.
(3) average bet $15.25
(4) total amount won $168
Nice start. Will see what follows. Will post again after at least 2 hours today.

Charles

[Grifter]

Tuffy - I have about 8,000 hands of Walt's Progression on computer. After you finish your test I will post my results.......Grifter

[tuffy88]

Day 2

(1) hours played 5 hrs. 18min.
(2) total bets 525
(3) Total amount bet $8095
(4) Average bet $15.40
(5) Total amount won $295

The figures are all cumulative. The totals to date, not the one days figures.More bets per hour than could be made at casinos around Chicago as $10 tables here are often full, always at least 3 or 4 players.

Grifter: Look forward to reading what your results were.

Charles

[tuffy88]

Day 3

(1) hours played 7hrs. 51 min.
(2) total bets 784
(3) total amount bet $12092
(4) average bet $15.22
(5) total amount won $358

Charles

[Walter Thomason]

Tuffy: Neat stuff! Keep up the posts... I'm curious to see when the first losing session occurs, and how much it effects your building bankroll.
Two questions: Are you keeping track of how many times you hit a four-loss stop point? What software program are you using?
Truthfully, I'm skeptical of computerized analyses of my betting system, but as long as it's showing a profit I won't complain!

[tuffy88]

Walter: I'm using a 9 or 10 year old Avery Codoza program to do this. I haven't been keeping track of the 4 losses or 4 wins progressions. The Cordosa program does not do this. I could do it manually I suppose. A little more work, but not much. May do it. I don't have a count on the 4straight wins & losses, but I have have had 4 or 5 five straight wins and one 6 straight win. About that many 4 straight losses. No string of more than 4 straight losses as I quit that shoe after 4 straight losses and start another shoe. I finish less than half of the shoes I start as I hit 4 straight losses on more than half of the shoes I start.

When I go to a net loss it will be posted here.

Charles

[brett5]

Hi everyone,

New to this forum and had a couple of questions. I will be able to say more later. What is progression play and what is a must to read about blackjack strategy. I hate to be so short and do app-reciate any responses. Thanks, Brett5.

[Mr. Ed]

Progression play means changing you bet based on whether you win or lose. For example: increase your bet by one unit each time you win a hand; decrease each time you lose. On this board, it is often compared to card counting, where the size of your bet is determined based on your expected advantage: bet more when you have an advantage, bet less (or zero) when the house has the advantage.

I read "Take the Money and Run" by Henry Tamburin (I may have spelled his name wrong - I apologize) and found it to be very good (and it was cheap, too!)

Fred Renzey often posts on this board, and although I have not read his book, he has a very good understanding of the game and explains it clearly.

Blackjack Attack II, by Don Schlesinger is often toted as the "bible" of serious BJ players, but it is for advanced players and a casual beginner would find it tedius and dense.

If you're looking for fiction, "The Counter" by Kevin Blackwood (I think that's his name) is very entertaining and Kevin went to great pains to make it realistic.

[midnite]

Brett- "Progressions" covers a lot of ground. There are "positive" progressions, where you only increase your bet after a win (or two) and the "negative" progressions, where you increase your bet after a loss. Two very good books are Walter Thomason's book Twenty-First Century Blackjack and Fred Renzey's book Blackjack Bluebook II. (not that Bluebook I wasn't also good) There are several other BJ books, but I would start with these two. Then you can read Wong and the others, if you want to.

[Renzey]

TOUGHY 88: I think a vital part of your experiment should include keeping a total of hands won/lost/pushed. That will tell you whether your sample contained a "normal" number of wins and losses, though not necessarily an appropriate amount of streaks. Keeping a record of both wins and streaks would be awesome.

[BJ_Fan]

Brett,

My favorite must have for blackjack is the attached link:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php
This will provide you with correct basic strategy for any rules. Memorize whatever rules you play the most first and then work on the alterations for other games.
The most important rule for a new player is know basic strategy COLD. It is the essential first step whether you decide to bet progressively or count cards.

[tuffy88]

Day 4

(1) hours played 9hrs. 55min.
(2) total bets 1025
(3) Total amount bet $15090
(4) average bet 14.85
(5) total amount won $243

Finally had a losing session. Knew it had to come. Sure many more.
Fred: My softwear doesen't keep track of wins, losses and puts.
Walter: Will start tomorrow keeping track of winning & losing streaks of 4 or if wins 4 or more.

Charles

[jm2552]

I've recently finished Walter's book (excellent read, highly recommended) and I'm amazed at the depths of the unique comparisions of the systems. I was happy with what the results seem to indicate, but then I'm pretty much sold on progression already. Nice to see it analyzed and compared in this way. Thank you, Mr. Thomason.

I've also come across what seems to work best for me. I'm trying a combination of Labourchere (with Bruce Irwin's modifications) and applying Mr. Thomasons' "quit points". The Labby/Irwin progression worked well before, but since applying the "quit points" I've had much more success overall, and less frequent bad runs. Thank you again, Mr. T!

There was one thing on quit points I wasn't quite clear on though. I understand your point about waiting for a new shoe after four quit points. But when you mention changing tables, does that in itself apply, or would you wait for another shoe at the new table?

In my case, just changing tables at that point mostly worked.

Anyway, your book is much appreciated!

[brett5]

Thanks to Mr. Ed, Midnite and BJ Fan and anyone else who might respond to my questions. Now a little bit about me. My name is Todd and I live on the East coast in the US. Ive always loved playing BJ but havent had any success. I went to the Bahamas in the late 80's and lost about $700. I started playing online in November 2002. ive lost about $15000 doing that. I will never play online again. I know basic strategy somewhat but not like I should. I went to Harrahs Cherokee in NC last weekend with a BR of $500 and left with $700. Its a start anyway. The rules arent that great: 6 decks, Dealer hit soft 17, Double on 10 and 11 only and no doubling after split. Thats around 1% house advantage I thinK. Oh, and its digital BJ. What about that? Im 2 hours from the casino but should I be traveling further to say Miss. for the better odds? Anyway, Im really enjoying reading the posts here and learning what everone has to offer. Feel free to respond with any advice. Its greatly appreciated. Todd.

[midnite]

O.K. Todd, I am going to have to give you the "Dutch Uncle" talk. First don't play anymore BJ until you "know" basic strategy. Not sort of know it or kind of know it. That is the first thing to learn. Well, maybe the second. I think you have already learned the first thing.... Don't Play On Line. I see a lack of disiple, that you will have to work on. You can do it. Take it a step at a time, like climbing a stair case or a ladder. The First step is Basic Strategy. Your post was open and honest and I will be glad to try and help. I am sure the others will too. The BJ game on this site is great practice. You can contact me at midnitegambler@cox.net
if you have any questions.

[Doc]

brett5: I hope that was a typo, you didn't really lose 15 k on on-line BJ I hope. If you want to learn the game I think you came to the right place, and if you pay heed to folks like Midnite you should get to step 1, which is to have an enjoyable casino experiance, even if you don't come out a winner that day, because you know the game and know how to play it well enough to give yourself a chance.

[Walter Thomason]

jm: I generally wait for a new shoe, or wait to be invited to join the game if it's near the start of a new shoe.
Glad you found the book interesting.

[BJ_Fan]

Todd:

I definitely agree with midnite. Know basic strategy: exactly, totally, automatically. Play the blackjack game on this site. You'd need to alter your rules a bit as the site allows double any 2 and double after split. The proper basic strategy is listed under "rules and strategy" at the top of the website. Also, look into the books by Fred and Walter. Not only are they two excellent blackjack references but you have the authors here to "fill in any blanks" you may experience after reading them.
After you have BS down, you can decide if you want to take the progression or counting route :lol:

[Desert Dog]

Hey everyone, Brett5/Todd mentioned it and someone else did too: What the heck is Digital Blackjack? :?:

[tuffy88]

DAY 5

(1) Total hours played 12hrs. 04min.
(2) Total bets 1274
(3) Total amount bet $18410
(4) Average bet $15.01
(5) Total amount won $246
(6) Number of 4 straight wins (4) one 6,two 5, one 4
(7) Number of 4 straight losses (5) Quit after 4 straight losses & went to another shoe, so never more than 4.
Will repeat these totals are cumulative, not just one day.
Only one shoe finished without 4 straight losses. In a casino this method would cause a lot of table hopping. Wins-losses pretty even today.

Charles

[WILDBILL729]

Hey everyone, Brett5/Todd mentioned it and someone else did too: What the heck is Digital Blackjack? :?:

Desert Dog,

Here is the description....Not exactly sure why anyone would want to play it however

Live Digital Blackjack games have arrived. This innovative game combines real dealers and casino chips with state of the art video displays and digital cards to deliver the ultimate in Blackjack action, all in a table game atmosphere. Play Live Digital Blackjack

Bill

[Desert Dog]

Hey everyone, Brett5/Todd mentioned it and someone else did too: What the heck is Digital Blackjack? :?:

Desert Dog,

Here is the description....Not exactly sure why anyone would want to play it however

Live Digital Blackjack games have arrived. This innovative game combines real dealers and casino chips with state of the art video displays and digital cards to deliver the ultimate in Blackjack action, all in a table game atmosphere. Play Live Digital Blackjack

Bill

So the dealer essentially just handles chips and presses a button to deal? Do the players or the dealer press a button for hit, stand, split, double, etc.? What do they say they're dealing "digitally" from? A virtual six deck shoe with 80% penetration, or is it continuous shuffle?
I'd never play it. At least a CSM has real cards and dealers that are actually handling them.

[tuffy88]

DAY 6

(1) Total hours played 14hrs. 13min.
(2) Total bets 1517
(3) Total amount bet $22140
(4) Average bet $15.10
(5) Total amount won $248
(6) Total four straight wins (6) 4 3Times, 5 2times, 1 7times
(7) Total four straight losses (9)

Today a very volital day. Lost 4 straight 4 times befor winning 4 straight once. Then won 7 straight. Would have changed tables 8 times in little over 2 hours. Still very little change in bankroll. So far a very even progression in 6 days and over 14 hours. Bet over $22000 and less than $250 from what I started with. I don"t think it can stay this way, but we will see. Also I did not realize this game was so streaky.

Charles

[tuffy88]

To avoid confusion all posts except 6 and 7 are cumulative. The 4 straight wins and 4 straight losses are for today only.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 7
(1) Total hours played 16hrs. 32min.
(2) Total bets 1517
(3) Total amount bet $25945
(4) Average bet $15.05
(5) Total amount won $174
(6) # 4 straight wins (7) 4 3times, 5 3times, 7 once.
(7) # 4 straight losses (9)

Profit slowly droping, but still on the + side.

Charles

[Renzey]

TUFFY 88: Need to update total number of bets.

[tuffy88]

Fred: Your right. I just copied the old number. Correct Total # of bets is 1765. Thanks for catching that.
Charles

[brett5]

Desert Dog,

Ive played digital BJ on two different occassions. The dealer has a set of buttons that he pushes to correspond to the players choice of hit, stand etc. The player does everything he would do at any other casino except handle the cards.It is six decks but Im not sure about the shuffle you refer to. I Played BJ online for the past few months and can say this. The practice sessions were definitely different than the playing for real sessions. And it took my 15 K later to realize it was a rip off. At least at the online casino I was playing. I know Im an idiot for losing that much money before I realized what was going on. Anyway,my point is that having played online where cards are shuffled by a computer and playing at a land based casino where they are also shuffled by computer. So far I feel that The digital BJ games have been fair and are not cheating. I have walked out ahead on both ocassions. Hope this helps, Todd.

[Walter Thomason]

Tuffy: A quick calculation through Day 7... My claim is that my system will beat flat betting, even when the flat bettor has the same average bet as the progressive bettor. A flat bettor playing your same hands would have wagered $26,563.25 at this point in time (1765 bets @ $15.05). Assuming a house edge of one-half of one percent for your game, he would theoretically be losing $132.82 at this point.
Also, either player would have received "average" comps of $53.10 for their action. (Calculation: 2% of total action divided by 30%).

[Mike]

Also, either player would have received "average" comps of $53.10 for their action. (Calculation: 2% of total action divided by 30%).[/quote]

Walter,
Is this a typical comp calculation?
Mike

[Renzey]

TUFFY: With regard to Walter's comment about where the basic strategy player would be expected to be at any given point -- is why it would be very useful if there was a way for you to track the actual number of bets won/lost/pushed. Then you'd know how the progression did next to flat betting $15.03 every hand.

[tuffy88]

DAY 8
Got Hammerd Today.

(1) Total hours played 18hrs. 36min.
(2) Total bets made 1968
(3) Total amount bet $28855
(4) Average bet $14.95
(5) Total amount LOST - $172
(6) # 4 in row wins (2) 2 four times
(7) # 4 in roe losses (7)

Bad day. Many more 4 in row losses than 4 in row wins. Also choppy. Win then loss. Over and over. Win $10 on first bet-lose $15 on next bet. If I was really in a casino would have quit after about 45 min. Although Fred says it woulden't matter in long run, and he is probably right. Anyway tomorrow is another day. That loss is for the total 7 days. That is the loss to date.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 9 Better today.

(1) Total hours played 20hrs. 58min.
(2) Total bets made 2203
(3) Total amount bet $32815
(4) Average bet $15.02
(5) Total amount LOST - $36
(6) # of four straight wins (6) 3 four times--3 five times
(7) # of four straight losses (2)

Luck ran a little better today. No big deal. I just kept beating the dealer the whole 2 hours. Not all the time, but on balance. Made up a little, but not all, of yesterday's loss.

Charles

[Renzey]

TUFFY 88; Point of Interest on your Sample Run - At 2200 hands played, the "standard error" for your result is about $900. What that means is about 2 times out of 3, you can expect your result to be within $900 of what would be "perfectly normal". One out of 3 times, your found result will be more than $900 away from the true value of the experiment.

Now $900 divided by $32,800 in action is 2.7%.

After 4400 hands, your "standard error" is down to 2.0% of your action.

After 10,000 hands, it's down to 1.3%.

After 100,000 hands, it's down to 0.4%.

[tuffy88]

Fred

That is interesting. I did not have any idea about the math of what I am doing. I guess I have thought of it like I think about my wife's & my rollover IRA'S in our retirement portfolio. I believe in the efficient market theary as propounded at the University of Chicago. I understand it in general, but not fully as a profesional financial man would. But I know how to construct an assset allocation portfolio of low cost index funds, & that is really all that is necessary. Believing in an efficient financial market has always made me favor card counting in blackjack but I thought trying this would be fun. And being retited I have the time.

Charles

[Renzey]

TUFFY 88: I think what you're doing is valuable. I look for your results every day. I'm hoping you don't tire of it soon so we'll all have a look at the Thomason progression over an extended period.

[Walter Thomason]

Mike: The comp rating system I used is fairly typical... Some casinos might figure 1% as house edge, bu allow 40% in comps. Whatever formula they use, the results are about the same, depending upon competition. The more competition, the better the comp rewards. Also, most casinos look for at least four hours of play per day, and the big strip casinos usually won't comp much at less than green chip level.
Huffy: Keep up the good work! Your short sessions show how volitile the game can be. My hope is that you will hit one of those "long string" winning sessions, which really boost the bankroll and allow for lots of small losing sessions.

[tuffy88]

DAY 10 Another pretty good day.

(1) Total hours played 23hrs. 04min.
(2) Total bets made 2437
(3) Total amount bet $36485
(4) Average bet $15.26
(5) Total amount WON $232
(6) # of four straight wins (8) 5 four straight, 1 five straight, 1 six straight, 1 seven straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (4)

Good day. More winning streaks than losing streakes & three of the winning streakes were longer than four. Whenever that happens it is a good day.

Walter: You are right comps do count. In Illinois they are a little skimpy on comps due to a special tax situation here.
Fred: Twenty more days. I will do it.
Charles

[Desert Dog]

Not that it's a perfect comparison to what Charles/Tuffy88 is tracking, but just FYI, I'm running a six-deck shoe game on my software, counting and betting using Fred's KISS II system. After 871 hands, 387 wins (44.4%), 389 losses (44.7%), the other 95 (10.9%) pushes. To put it another way 49.85% wins and 50.15% losses. These are unusually favorable cards for the player so far. But the dollar position is even more favorable. The initial buy-in of $500 is now up to $2,600. Base bet at count of 19 or lower is $10, highest bet at 23 or higher is $100. Software reshuffles at 80% penetration. It's heads-up play. Normally about 46 hands played per shoe.

[crackers]

"Desert Dog,
Ive played digital BJ on two different occassions. The dealer has a set of buttons that he pushes to correspond to the players choice of hit, stand etc. The player does everything he would do at any other casino except handle the cards.It is six decks but Im not sure about the shuffle you refer to." (from Brett)

Brett, I play Digital BJ at Cherokee casino you mentioned in your post. Dealers there tell me that after 3 decks are played, the cards are "shuffled" back into the 6 deck total. If you have walked away winner twice in a row, you might expect the tide to turn on your next (3rd visit). Still, is much better than online BJ.

[Walter Thomason]

DD: Re Fred's system, can you calculate your average bet size at this point?

[Desert Dog]

DD: Re Fred's system, can you calculate your average bet size at this point?

Walter, unfortunately my software doesn't track that and I don't have the time to write down each bet for each hand. I can tell you that a large majority of bets are at the $10 level. Sometimes an entire shoe stays there. I'd be surprised if more than 25% are at higher than $10, but what's interesting is that of those that are, many if not most of them are at the $100 level (count of 23 or higher).

[tuffy88]

DAY 11

(1) Total time played 25hrs. 06min.
(2) Total bets made 2674
(3) Total amount bet $40370
(4) Average bet $15.09
(5) Total amount LOST $50
(6) # of four wins in roe (2) two 4 times each.
(7) # of four losses in row (8) eight

Many more losing streaks than winning streaks. That about tells the story.
8 times 4 straight losses.
Charles

[Renzey]

Walter/Desert Dog: If Dog is betting according to the schedule laid out in the book, he'll be averaging $21 per bet with about 82% of all bets being $10. I have to say though, that 80% penetration is uncommon, and will produce better results than most "real game" scenarios. 70% is more typical. In fact, at 80% penetration, his average bet will actually be somewhat larger since so many "20+" counts will occur in that extra 10% of penetration.

[tuffy88]

DAY 12 Another bad one.

(1) Total hours played 27hrs.--20min.
(2) Total bets made 2905
(3) Total amount bet $43815
(4) Average bet $14.98
(5) Total amount LOST $273
(6) # of four straight wins ((3) Two 4 straight and one five straight
(7) # of four straight loses (8) eight

Loosing streaks are killing me.

Charles

[Desert Dog]

Walter/Desert Dog: If Dog is betting according to the schedule laid out in the book, he'll be averaging $21 per bet with about 82% of all bets being $10. I have to say though, that 80% penetration is uncommon, and will produce better results than most "real game" scenarios. 70% is more typical. In fact, at 80% penetration, his average bet will actually be somewhat larger since so many "20+" counts will occur in that extra 10% of penetration.

You're right. The last few hands between 30% and 20% are often the ones with the highest counts. I'm going to finish this series at 1000 hands and then for the next series I will watch for the "30% left" message and hit the button that will reshuffle then rather than wait for the automatic reshuffle at 20%.

[Jeff Tedrow]

I was just wondering exactly what software everyone is using? I, being a programmer, was thinking about writing my own, but haven't got around to having the time to actually do it.

My guess is that by tuffy's remark that it's an Avery Cardoza program, you're probably talking about his Casino (2000) software, which I have. I really like it (and paly around with it often).

As for Desert Dog, I am baffled - I have looked around for a while now, but cannot find a program that is similar to what you are saying.

Any help would be appreciated.

[Grifter]

Jeff - I personally feel that "Casino Verite" is the best on the market and have been using it since 1995 when it first came out.

It is a tad "pricey" but worth the money.......The stats and graphs it produces are almost worth the higher cost in themselves.

Regards.....Grifter

[Desert Dog]

Jeff, I have two programs. One on my PC which is Hoyle Casino 2003 by Sierra entertainment. The handheld software that comes with it is terrible, but the PC version is very good.

The other is on my Handspring Visor (a Palm OS handheld) and it's called Blackjack, available at this web page:

http://www.pilotzone.com/palm/games_casino_default.html.

It's the one with the "four cows" rating. Now at ver 1.1. This is the one I am running the current simulation on, mainly because it is more convenient.

[Desert Dog]

Walter/Desert Dog: If Dog is betting according to the schedule laid out in the book, he'll be averaging $21 per bet with about 82% of all bets being $10. I have to say though, that 80% penetration is uncommon, and will produce better results than most "real game" scenarios. 70% is more typical. In fact, at 80% penetration, his average bet will actually be somewhat larger since so many "20+" counts will occur in that extra 10% of penetration.

You're right. The last few hands between 30% and 20% are often the ones with the highest counts. I'm going to finish this series at 1000 hands and then for the next series I will watch for the "30% left" message and hit the button that will reshuffle then rather than wait for the automatic reshuffle at 20%.

Here's the 1000 hands results, using the KISS II count, six deck shoe, 80% penentration, min bet $10, max bet $100.

Chips Bought: $ 500
Winnings: $2930
Ending bankroll: $3430
Hands won: 443 (44.3%, or 49.6% excluding pushes)
Hands lost: 451 (45.1%, or 50.4% excluding pushes)
Pushes: 106 (10.6%)

Up nearly $3,000 in a week, and 1000 is reasonable for the actual number of hands you can play in a week. Looks like a decent living. I'll send you all postcards.

Next series I'll reshuffle immediately after 70% of the cards are dealt.

[Jeff Tedrow]

Thanks Desert Dog!

[tuffy88]

Jeff

I am using an old Avery Codoza program. Have had it 8 or 9 years. I like it.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 13 Another loss, but not so bad this time.

(1) Total time played 29hrs.-39min.
(2) Total bets made 3136
(3) Total amount bet $47395
(4) Average bet $15.18
(5) Total amount lost $315
(6) # of four straight wins (5) three 4 times, one 5 times, one 6 times.
(7) # of four straight losses (7)

Keep having more losing streaks than winning streaks. Should have a winning day some time.

Charles

[Grifter]

Tuffy - That is still pretty d**n good. You are only losing one unit per hour after 30 hours........and my thanks to you for doing this. I think everyone appreciates it.

Regards.....Grifter

[Renzey]

TUFFY: Your current status is -0.66%, but the "luck factor" still has a pretty big influence at this stage of the game (within $1100 of where you are two times out of three).

[Renzey]

TUFFY: Also be aware that you should lose 4 in a row three times for every two times you win 4 in a row.

[Grifter]

Renzey - I came up with the same number....-0.66, but I am going to wait until he gets to 5K to calculate the SD......I agree with the "luck" factor, but will stand by "looks decent" so far.......Not a "winner", just looks decent.

Grifter

[tuffy88]

Renzey

I have often wandered what one standard diviation was in blackjack. I did not realize it was as high as $1100 with my level of betting. I know it is fairly easy to figure with stocks if one uses a tight index fund asset allocation. Still it is nice to know it is that wide in blackjack.

Charles

[jm2552]

The initial buy-in of $500 is now up to $2,600.

Could someone please actually define "buy-in"? I know this sounds pretty dumb, but I always assumed it was the initial amount of chips you bought. However, hearing it in the above context, makes me wonder if I'm mis-understanding. Thanks.

(BTW, I'm still having good success with the Labby combined with Mr. Thomason's quit points. I really think more folks should give this a serious try)

[Walter Thomason]

jm: The initial buy-in is just that... the amount of money that you invest in chips at the start of play... not to be coufused with "bankroll" -- the amount of money you're willing to lose for one session.

[tuffy88]

DAY 14 At last a winning day

(1) Total hours played 31hrs.--51min.
(2) Total bets made 3382
(3) Total amount bet $51067
(4) Average bet $15.16
(5) Total amount LOST $148
(6) # of four straight wins (5) five Three four straight, one five straight, one six straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (6)

Ahead $167 today. Cuts the overall loss down. Tomorrow will be the halfway mark. With the standard deviation at $1100 the volitity has been very low these 14 days. Will see about the next 16 days. Also the average bet has hugged the flat line at $15.
Charles

[Grifter]

Tuffy - Your SD is going to change as your number of hands increases. I imagine that $1,100 Fred posted yesterday was for the hands played to date......but I didn't personally check it.

Grifter

[Walter Thomason]

tuffy: When I run sims using a $20/30/40/50 progression, my long-term average bet is $31.80. I think that you will find that winning sessions show a higher average bet, and that more winning sessions will raise your average bet to about $15.90. And, even though your initial bet in the progression is always $10, you would have to bet $14 as an initial bet if you were just flat betting every time.
Also, I'm surprized that you haven't yet hit a few 8, 9, or 10 hand winning streaks.
Keep up the good work!

[Walter Thomason]

Fred: Could you please show the math behind your "frequency of winning and losing streaks" post? Thanks.

[Grifter]

Yep, Fred.....Please give us your math. I've been chasin' my behind today and haven't had a chance to confirm your numbers, but I thought that "ratio" would be about 5:4 in lieu of the 3:2 you posted.

Thanks.....Grifter

[Renzey]

WALTER and GRIFTER: Woops! My apologies-- went too fast. Grifter is right. The ratio of 4 consecutive losses to 4 consecutive wins is just about 5-to-4. The simplest but slightly imperfect way to get this is to group your streak together, then border it at the beginning and end by a streakbreaking outcome.
For example, the probability of a win is .435, a loss is .480 and a push is .085. Four straight wins (counting pushes as a streakbreaker) would then be;
.565 x .435 x .435 x .435 x .435 x .565 = .0114.
Four straight losses would be:
.520 x .480 x .480 x .480 x .480 x .520 = .0143.
So in Tuffy's 3382 hands, it would be normal for him to have (.0114 x 3382) 38 winning streaks of exactly four in a row and (.0143 x 3382) 48 losing streaks of exactly four in a row.
An occasional poster on BJMath named "Lefty" gave me a much more complex, exact equation for calculating this, but once you get over a sample size of a few hundred, it virtually doesn't matter.

[Walter Thomason]

Fred -- more questions:
1. What's the origin of ".565" and ".520"?
2. Can you recalculate and remove the "push" from the calculation... treat the push as a "non-hand"?
3. Can you determine average bet size for each series, based upon tuffy's $10 to $25 progression? I realize this could be difficult because the preceeding bet for the progressive player (the loss prior to starting a four-hand winning streak) could be anywhere from $10 to $25, but...
Thanks!

[Renzey]

WALTER: 1) .565 is the probability that this hand was either a loss or a push (.480 + .085). .520 is the probability that this hand was either a win or a push (.435 + .085).
2) You could treat a push as a non-hand by counting every result as either a .435 (win) or a .480 (loss). But in that case a sequence of;
L, W, P, W, P, W, P, W, L would be counted as four consecutive wins. Is that how you work your progression?

[tuffy88]

DAY 15 Pretty evan today, but a small loss. The half way day.

(1) Total hours played 33hrs.--53min.
(2) Total bets made 3614
(3) Total amount bet $54557
(4) Average bet $15.11
(5) Total amount LOST $161
(6) # of four straight wins (3) two four straight, one five straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (2)

Pretty even day. Was ahead by a small amount most of the 2 hours until the last 5 minuets. When the shoe ended then I quit. Which I normally do after two hours when either the shoe ends or I have 4 straight losses. Not many streaks of either wins or losses today.

I sometimes wonder about quiting on four straight losses. It did not happen today but more often than not I don't finish the shoe before having four straight losses. And after two hours that is usually when I quit: either at the end of the shoe or four straight losses, whichever comes first.

Charles

[Walter Thomason]

Fred: The answer to your question is "yes". I consider a push as a non-hand, since no money changed hands. Same is true of split hands when I win one and lose one. But if I lost one side of a split hand, and won the other hand which was also a double down, I'd count it as a win since there was a net profit.

[tuffy88]

DAY 16

(1) Total time played 36hrs.---07min.
(2) Total bets made 3847
(3) Total amount bet $58166
(4) Average bet $15.12
(5) Total amount LOST $216
(6) # of four straight wins (4) three four straight, one five straight
(7) # of four straight losses (5)

One point I forgot to mention. In the software I use the dealer takes all .50 cent payoff's on blackjacks as a tip. He also at times takes $1.00 as a tip. Stats do not record the total amounts, but today it was $3.00 and yesterday it was $3.50. I think about $3.00 for the 2 hours of play is about what it is. These amounts are subtracted from the wins before the amount is added to the bankroll. As I said I think about $3.00 to $3.50 is the amount each day. That seems about right for a tip, so I guess it is right to charge that amount against the total wins. The total amount LOST reflects those deductions from win's.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 17

(1) Total time played 38hrs.--21min.
(2) Total bets made 4082
(3) Total amount bet $61516
(4) Average bet $15.07
(5) Total amount LOST -$242
(6) # of four straight wins (4) two four straight, two six straight
(7) # of four straight losses (6) six

Charles

[tuffy88]

Day 18 Bad day.

(1) Total hours played 40hrs.--25min.
(2) Total number of bets 4308
(3) Total amount bet $64766
(4) Average bet $15.07
(5) Total amount LOST $508
(6) # of four straight wins (2) two Two four straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (8) eight. Glad today is over. Would have changed tables 8 times in 2hrs. & 11Min.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 19

(1) Total time played 42hrs.--36min.
(2) Total bets made 4546
(3) Total amount bet $68386
(4) Average bet made $15.04
(5) Total amount LOST _$431
(6) #of four straight wins (4) four two four straight, two five straight
(7) #of four straight losses (3)) three

A little better today, but still down more than the house edge calls for. Well within one standard diviation though.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 20

(1) Total time played 44hrs.--45min.
(2) Total bets made 4782
(3) Total amount bet $72016
(4) Average bet made $15.07
(5) Total amount LOST -$385
(6) #of four straight wins (4) four 2 four straight, 1 five straight, 1 nine straight.
(3) # of four straight losses (6)

Two-thirds of the way through and the loss is almost exactly where the house edge says it should be. Lets see what the next 10 sessions will produce.

Charles
,

[tuffy88]

DAY 21 Bad day

(1) Total hours played 46hrs.--48min.
(2) Total number of bets made 5042
(3) Total amount bet $75756
(4) Average bet $15.03
(5) Total amount LOST -$670
(6) # of four straight wins (6) 5 four straight, 1 five straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (10) ten (ouch)

There's always tomorrow.
Charles

PS: To anyone just looking in here I am playing this on my computer. Not betting real money.

[Desert Dog]

Using KISS II count on my computer, 6 decks, heads-up, reshuffle when 30% left in shoe, (vs previously letting software default to reshuffle at 20% which is unrealistic), low bet $10, high bet $100, results after 666 hands (this wasn't deliberate, just where the latest shoe ended):

Initial buy-in: $1000 (in two $500 installments -- needed to spend a second $500 when chips got low)
Current bankroll: $2,425 meaning I am $1,425 up.
Hands won 275 (41.3%)
Hands lost 325 (48.8%)
Pushes 66 (9.9%)

Desert Dog

[Grifter]

Dawg - What is a spread like that (1-10) giving you as an average bet with this method?

[Desert Dog]

Dawg - What is a spread like that (1-10) giving you as an average bet with this method?

Grifter -- Fred can probably tell us the answer. My software doesn't track it, and I'm too lazy to write down each bet. All I can say is most of the time -- probably more than 75% -- the bet is $10 because the count is 19 or lower. Just as a recap, Fred's betting schedule for six decks is: 19 or less = 1 unit, 20 = 3 units, 21 = 6 units, 22 = 9 units, 23 or more = 10 units. I'd estimate that in this current simulation, half of all the bets greater than $10 are $100 bets. There have been great shoes, shoes from hell, and a lot of really boring shoes. And a few walk aways when the count was 4 or less a certain distance in. This move is as important and increasing your bet in a high count.

In real play I'd bet a more conservative ramp, 5 units at the high end. And then after a while quit counting altogether and order a drink.

[Grifter]

Gracias, Senor Dawg - I can get pretty close with those numbers, but yes it would be better if Fred sees your post and responds.

Yessir.....I feel the same way about counting 6D. In fact, I don't even start with a count, I just begin by drinkin'. :wink:

Grif'

[zebra]

Am I correct in calculating that Tuffy / Thomason's results are (to this point) working out to be about double the expected house edge?

[Grifter]

Zebra - Yep, he is close to double right now, BUT he had a very bad day today. At the end of yesterday he was very close to 'right on' with the EV.

Grifter

[brett5]

Crackers,

You were close on your call that my 3rd visit mght be a loss but it was actually my 4th visit. I walked out about $400 down but on my 5th visit I left ahead $800. How often do you go to Cherokee. I try to go once a week atleast. maybe Ill see you there. Todd.

[Walter Thomason]

tuffy/Charles: Now that you've reached the 5,000+ bets point, I'm trying to compare your simulated results to the 5,000 hands of manually-dealt play contain in my progressions book. The first data that strikes me as strange is comparison of number of four or more consecutive wins. I show that you've had 67 "strings" of 4 or more consecutive wins, and since you didn't keep track of these numbers for the first 3 sessions I've added 15 more strings to your score, making your record 91 strings of four or more consecutive wins. I compared this record to my 5,000 hands, and I had 167 strings of four or more consecutive wins... a big difference!
Conclusions? None at this point, but the results seem to support my contention that strings of consecutive wins occur more frequently in live play than they do in simulated play. But it could also be that your player just had lousy luck for this number of sessions... without some knowledge of win/loss percentages, it's impossible to tell how a flat bettor would have fared when compared to your progressive bettor.
Your efforts are appreciated. Perhaps another poster could run a similar study where win/loss records are known... And later on I'll post some results from studies of other sets of manually-dealt cards.

[tuffy88]

Walter

Thanks for your post. It also seems to me that I am getting a lot of four string losses compared to four string wins. Maybe some evening out in the last 9 days. Hope so. I did not know until you told me what it should be. I have just been playing and recording the results, what ever they turn out to be. Todays were a little better. Will post them now.


Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 22

(1) Total time played 48hrs.--58min.
(2) Total number of bets made 5290
(3) Total amount bet $79628
(4) Average bet $15.08
(5) Total amount LOST $633
(6) #of four straight wins (6) six. 4 four straight, 2 five straight.
(7) #of four straight losses (4)

A little better today.

Charles

[midnite]

Walter- I went through 5,000 of my hands, looking at 4 wins and 4 losses in a row. All were hand played, using six decks.
Results per 1,000 hands (W/L)
22/28 * 21/24 * 30/37 * 30/40 * 24/38
Total Win 4 127 Lose 4 167

I have the results of several thousand hands, if you want me to do more, just let me know.

[crackers]

"Crackers,
You were close on your call that my 3rd visit mght be a loss but it was actually my 4th visit. I walked out about $400 down but on my 5th visit I left ahead $800. How often do you go to Cherokee. I try to go once a week atleast. maybe Ill see you there. Todd."

Todd, my husband and I are there about once a week also. I'm the old gal with the black Harrah's jacket on. Introduce yourself. I play the BJ "machines" next to the Dealer tables about 50% of the time. Jackie :P

[tuffy88]

DAY 23 Good day.

(1) Total time played 51hrs.--12min.
(2) Total bets made 5536
(3) Total amount bet $83412
(4) Average bet $15.21
(5) Total amount LOST $479
(6) #of four straight wins (6) SIX. 3 four straight, 2 five straight, 1 six straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (4) FOUR

Things went well today. Wins were steady. Streaks favored the wins. The loss now pretty close to the expected house edge. Stayed within one standard deviation for the entire 23 days, although the standard deviation is narrowing now as I understand it. Seven more days. It would be ironic if the final loss (?) was to end up within 10 to 20 basis points of the expected house edge.

Charles

[Renzey]

To Grifter, Dog, Walter and Midnight:
1) A 1-to-10 spread with the KISS II will average about a 2.1 unit bet.
2) The striking difference between Tuffy's 91 streaks of 4 or more wins and Walter's 167, both in 5000 hands jumps way out. One standard deviation for this is right around 10 such streaks within 5000 hands, so you should virtually never see 91 one time and 167 another time. We need to clarify first whether the same Win/Lose/Push criteria was used in both experiments to define what consitutes 4 or more in a row. If the methodology was the same, then we have to seriously question whether computer dealt hands and manually dealt hands perform the same. Then again, the 10,000 manually dealt hands I checked from Bob Hubby's "Blackjack Tracker" conformed very closely to mathematical probability. We've got to be very careful here. We may need the manual experiment done all over again once we're sure everybody's playing off the same page.
3) Midnite - Were your hands dealt manually or by computer, and what was your win/lose/push criteria to define a streak?

[Desert Dog]

I'm at the 1000 hand point of the KISS II test, reshuffling when 70% of the cards have been dealt from a six deck shoe. In my last post at the 666 hand point I was way up. Now the story is different. There was a shoe that went to a count above 23 and stayed there, so I was betting $100 hand after hand, and mostly losing, or at best pushing. Very few wins. A few losses on doubles at this highest bet. Had to increase my buy-in by another $500 to $1500, and current bankroll is $1155, so I'm down $345. This was the worst negative fluctuation I've ever seen. Glad it's just a simulation.

Hands won, 416 or 41%
Hands lost, 486 or 48%

I suspect that what will happen is that after another 1000 hands I'll be back in the win column. Will keep you posted.

[midnite]

Fred- My hands are all manually dealt and I have a bunch of them... I never consider pushes.
I don't even record them as you neither win or lose. I used six decks. I looked only for 4 wins in a row or 4 losses in a row. I would be glad to do some more when we get it straight, as to how to count them. i.e. is a W-W-DW a win of 4 in a row ?

[Grifter]

Midnite/Fred - Midnte, since you don't count pushes it would seem to me this would skew the results for this particular 'test' Fred is pursuing. i.e. For every 100 hands you show, the actual hands played would be about 108.

Grifter

[tuffy88]

Day 24 Another good day.

(1) Total hours played 53hrs.---23min.
(2) Total number of bets 5766
(3) Total amount bet $87072
(4) Average bet $15.26
(5) Total amount LOST $315
(6) # of four straight wins (6) six. 3 four straight, 2 seven straight, 1 nine straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (4) four.

I don't know why the number of four straight wins is so low. I just record them as they play out.

In counting 4 straight wins I:
(1) Ignore pushes
(2) Count double downs as only 1 win if I win. & 1 loss if I lose.
(3) On splits: If I win both I count as 1 win. If push don't count. If I win one and lose one I count it as a push & don't count. For example: If I have 2 straight wins and push on anything I count the next hand as starting with 2 straight wins going for 3.
(4) When shoe ends I stop counting wins, whever I was, and starting with the next shoe, begin over at 0 wins.


Charles

[Grifter]

Tuffy - This is Renzey's "ball game" so I don't want to interfere, but I am so interested in this thread that here are a couple of my thoughts till he gets back to you.

You said (in italics),
"(1) Ignore pushes" .....This is correct IMHO.

"(2) Count double downs as only 1 win if I win. & 1 loss if I lose." ...I agree. This is correct IMHO.

"(3) On splits: If I win both I count as 1 win. If push don't count. If I win one and lose one I count it as a push & don't count. For example: If I have 2 straight wins and push on anything I count the next hand as starting with 2 straight wins going for 3." .....I have to disagree with this and this could skew the results. I have always counted splits as two hands....Two wins counts as two wins and two losses as two losses.

"(4) When shoe ends I stop counting wins, whever I was, and starting with the next shoe, begin over at 0 wins.".....This is a real "biggie" as far as amount of streaks and I wonder if Renzey is taking this into consideration. I honestly don't remember how many players you are using in your simulation, but for instance if it is four then you are stopping any possible streak about every 16 hands......What a difference that will make with Renzey's stats.

Sorry, didn't mean to get so long and let me say you are doing one h*ll of job with this test.

Regards.....Grifter

[tuffy88]

Grifter

I have stopped with some win streaks many times when the shoe ended. If I had two wins, or three, or even one when the old shoe ended that streak would end there and I would start over with 0 wins the first hand in the new shoe. It happened once today with a 3 win streak. I end the shoe with a win about as often as with a loss. I think it happens quite often, but I don't have any figures as to how often. Also I play with 3 players including myself, but only keep track of my own play. I'm not sure how much difference that makes.

Counting splits winning twice as two wins would add some to the winning streakes. Adding 2 losing splits would also add some to the losing streaks. I just haven't been tracking any of that. Hope this helps.

Charles

[midnite]

My hands will be for 100 "decisions" and not 100 hands, as I do not count pushes. With splits it may be a few more than 100.

(1) (2) & (3) I agree with my Pal, Grifter

(4) I did not mark where one shoe ended and a new one begain, so I can not start over with a new shoe. This can make quite a difference. i.e. I end the shoe with three wins and then win the first hand of the next shoe. You have 1 in a row and I have 4 in a row.

Now is a string of 8 wins (or losses) in a row, counted as 1 win or 1 loss of 4 in a row or counted as 2 wins or 2 losses ?

[Desert Dog]

I read Walter's book to say that a streak ends when a shoe ends. Winning or losing. If you win three and the shoe ends, for the first hand of next shoe you're back to the starting bet. (Page 18.) If you lose three at the end of a shoe and you lose the first of the next shoe, you're not at the four loss quit point, you're at one loss.

[Walter Thomason]

Guys and Girls: I think we are making some progress. Here's my take on how consecutive wins/losses should be recorded.
1. I consider a win to be a winning BET, not just a winning hand, so a double-down win would be two wins. A win, a win, and a split with a successful double-down on one side of the split would be counted as five consecutive winning bets.
2. Consecutive wins/losses end at the end of a shoe.
3. Pushes don't count.
4. Blackjacks count as one win.
5. Even though two or more winning bets might occur from one initial hand, I don't jump up the progression when this happens. An increase from $10 to $15 would occur regardless of the number of winning bets that originated from the initial dealing of a hand.
If you think about it, we don't play this game to win hands. We play to win MONEY, which means winning bets, so that's what we should track.
Having said this, it still seems to me that tuffy's numbers are low, since splits and doubles should only add about 10% to the number of bets placed, and won or lost. In other words, 100 hands would normally result in about 110 bets being placed, due to splits and double-downs. Midnight's results and my results are generated from manually dealt play, which seems to support my contention that streaks of winning bets occur more frequently with manually-dealt play than they do with computer generated play. :D

[tuffy88]

I couted as one win any double down, two wins on a split, or a winning double down after splitting. One day last week I split sixes three times: Got two double downs and the dealer busted. I counted this as 1 win. As I understand Walters post he would count this as 5 wins. Counting double downs as 2 wins and handling splits this way would add quit a bit to total 4 win streaks. The double down counting as 2 wins especially.

In re-reading my post last night when I said I played with 3 players what I should have said was that I sometimes played with 3 players including myself as one of them. Sometimes I play head to head with the dealer, sometimes with 2 and sometimes with 3, including myself. The other players score is not counted or their wins or losing streakes is not kept track of. I thought that made it as close to casino conditions as I could.

Charles

[Walter Thomason]

tuffy: Two days ago you were down $633... today you're down $315. I think it's worth noting that you've gained back 50% of your losses in two days.

[tuffy88]

DAY 25 A small loss today.

(1) Total time played 55hrs.--25min.
(2) Total number of bets 5994
(3) Total amount bet $90482
(4) Average bet $15.10
(5) Total amount LOST -$361
(6) #of four straight wins (2) two. 1 seven straight, 1 four straight.
(7) #of four straight losses (3) three

Walter: I had 2 good days following 2 bad ones. One of them very bad. Total loss below expected house edge. We will see what the next 5 days bring.
Not sure if I was clear in last post. Whatever happens on split I have been counting it as one win or loss. Hope that is clear.

Charles

[midnite]

Charles- quite clear and a Very good job !!! I admire your tenacity.

[Grifter]

I keep following this thread, and it seems to keep going on without any agreement about how to count hands……..Walt and Tuffy couldn’t be further apart if they tried. :wink:

I will stand by my Monday’s post about the correct way to count doubles, splits, and BJ’s….As the way they are supposed to be counted in the “wonderful world of blackjack”.

Walt – I simply can’t “buy” your rationale of counting a DW as two wins, relative to a ‘streak count’.
1. There is one hand physically on the table. The fact that you add more money to your bet does not change it to two hands and two bets…..It is still one hand with one bet.
2. Splits are different. There are two hands physically on the table and two separate bets, and you count them as separate hands.
3. Counting “money” instead of hands won’t work either….By your own reasoning, then you should be counting a blackjack as 1.5 wins because you won 1.5 times as much money.

That aside, the big thing that is going to skew the ‘streak count’ is the stopping of a streak at the end of a shoe……I will be interested to know how Fred handles the math of that. I know it is way beyond me.

Finally….For what it is worth. I have been using “Casino Verite” since 1995 and “Blackjack Tracker” since before it was even published. I have noticed no difference in ‘streaks’ between Norm's RNG hands and Bob's hand dealt hands.

Grifter

[Walter Thomason]

Grif: Please let me try again...
Every comparison I've ever made between flat and progressive betting has been a MONEY comparison. For instance, with the 5,000 hands played in my progressions book, I logged the financial results for each and every initial hand played, and kept a running total for both the flat and progressive bettor through the end of each shoe. Since both players played the same hands against the same dealer hands, and since both players had identical win/loss records in the same sequences, the only indicator that progressive betting might be superior to flat betting would be the bottom-line amount of money won or lost by each player at the end of each shoe.
The outcome of these shoe-by-shoe cash results indicated that the progressive bettor won more or lost less than the flat bettor, and the only difference was the amount of money bet on initial hands, splits, and doubles, and the actual money won on Blackjacks. It also became obvious that the progressive bettor's results were more favorable because of the streaks of winning bets that were occurring.
Winning doubles, splits, and Blackjacks generated more profit for the progressive bettor during winning streaks, and generated about the same profit as the flat bettor during losing streaks. That's why a streak should be determined by the number of BETS won or lost, rather than the number of hands won or lost. And since double-down and split rules always favor the player (regardless of his betting style) it's important to track these results when comparing different betting styles.
Frankly, I don't really care if I win two hands in a row, but I do care if I win 6 bets as a result of winning two hands in a row, since my progressive bettor is often betting more than the flat bettor when these multiple wins occur. When a streak of losing doubles or splits occur at the start of a progression, or when the progressive bettor has just experienced a losing hand, the outcome for both the progressive and flat bettor is the same, assuming they both started with the same size initial bet.
I'll pause for a bit and let your react to what I'm trying to say... :D

[tuffy88]

DAY 26 Good day.

(1) Total time played 58hrs.--25min.
(2) Total bets made 6322
(3) Total amount bet $95362
(4) Average bet $15.12
(5) Total amount LOST -$237
(6) #of four straight wins (9) nine. 5 four straight, 2 six straight, 1 seven straight, 1 nine straight.
(7) #of four straight losses (9) nine.

Was doing well after 2 hours, so decided to play longer. Played almost 3 hours. Made all the money in the first two hours. Actually lost $25 in the extra hour. Still ahead $124 today. Four more days. Getting a little tired, but will finish and then take a long rest.

Don't know why the disparity over straight wins and losses. I just play and record the results.

Charles

[Walter Thomason]

Charles: From a personal standpoint I can't remember ever having played this many hands without having mere serious win/loss swings... just the luck (unluck) of the draw, I guess.
By the way, I didn't intend to start a new thread on this subject. I just pushed the wrong icon on my mouse, and it was either retype my post or start a new thread. I opted for the lazy way out!
Only a few more days to go... it's time to hit a hot streak and come out a few bucks ahead!

[tuffy88]

DAY 27 Lost $108 today.

(1) Total time played 60hrs.---26min.
(2) Total bets made 6544
(3) Total amount bet $98688
(4) Average bet $15.09
(5) Total amount LOST -$345
(6) # of four straight wins (6) six. 4 four straight, 2 five straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (9) nine.

Not a good day, but not real bad. At the end of the first hour I was down over $200.

Charles

[Grifter]

Walter Thomason Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2003 10:30 am Post subject: Continuation of Thomason Progression Study

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grif: A couple more things...
A friend of mine worked with Bob Hubby's 50,000+ manually-dealt hands for months... Did an excel spreadsheet study of all four players, and concluded that almost every type of positive progression was superior to flat betting. I can't use his results to argue my position because I didn't do the research.
I did conduct a study of 1,050 manually dealt hands where the players each won and lost the same number of bets: 1,050 hands, 1,096 bets, 548 winning bets, 548 losing bets, 34 Blackjacks... The $20 flat bettor won $340 (the extra money won for his Blackjacks, based on his $20 bet). The $20 to 50 progressive bettor (same initial bet as the $20 flat bettor) won $525. The ONLY reason that the progressive bettor won more than the flat bettor was his progressive betting style.
Just food for thought...


Grifter Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2003 11:02 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Walt – Somewhere we had a “slip of communication” which is rare for us…..and now people will think we are arguing and we’re not. Let me be more precise.

1. I was not questioning the rationale of your use of “monies” as a comparison in your posts or in your book. There is nothing wrong with that as long as you explain to people what all the numbers mean...and you do a good job of that.

2. My concern was totally with the ‘project’ Fred is doing about “streaks”, and the related posts about that. There is no way Fred, or anyone else, can compare the amount of ‘streaks’ that are occurring if the contributors in the ‘test’ are counting them differently.

My post was simply the way I thought you guys should be counting your doubles, splits, and blackjacks. It will not work if you count them differently, and right now ya’ll (Tuffy/Midnite/Walt) are miles apart.

Grif’


Walter Thomason Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2003 12:55 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No problem, Grif, and really no argument... I'm simply trying to build a case for my method of calculating streaks. I'm pretty sure that some of Fred's interest in progressive betting is an outgrowth of discussions that he and I have been having for years, and my intention is to put us all on the same page when it comes to measuring outcomes. I, being the self-centered smartass that I am, want everybody to do it MY way!!
But you're right... it's impossible to build on anything if we are all using different methods of construction.
But, on the other hand, there's no reason why we can't agree to disagree on specific issues, is there?

[tuffy88]

DAY 28 Not a good day.

(1) Total time played 62hrs.--34min.
(2) Total number of bets 6770
(3) Total amount bet $101914
(4) Average bet $15.08
(5) Total amount LOST $457
(6) # of four straight wins (5) five. 4 four straight, 1 five straight.
(7) # of four straight losses (8) eight.

Loss about the normal house edge now. Two more days to go. Be glad when it is over.

Charles

[Grifter]

Champ Tuffy......Hang in there. Go to your gym and get a rub down, then use the sauna for about an hour. Get a good night's sleep tonight, and get up and really loosen up in the morning......then go get 'em. Only two rounds to go !!!! :)

Grifter

[Walter Thomason]

Charles: I'll be away from my computer until the end of next week... We're going to North Carolina to watch a bunch of leaves die and play a little digital blackjack at Harrah's.
Hope your results are a little more positive in the next two days. Thanks for your efforts.

[tuffy88]

DAY 29 Good day

(1) Total time played 64hrs.--35min.
(2) Total hands played 6974
(3) Total dollars bet $105294
(4) Average bet made $15.10
(5) Total amount LOST $295
(6) #of four straight wins (8) eight. 2 four straight, 2 five straight, 1 six straight, 2 seven straight, 1 ten straight.
(7) #of four straight losses (6) six.

# of straight wins more than straight losses made today a winner.

Charles

[Desert Dog]

Comparison of KISS II simulation to Charles/Tuffy88's simulation with the Thomason progression:

I finally got to the 2000 hand point. At 1000 hands the position was negative because of two shoes with high counts that played out badly. I predicted that at the 2000 hand point the situation would turn around, and it did. Part of the reason is that the ratio of wins to losses came back to "normal" -- losses exceed wins by about 5%. Here's where it stands now:

Hands Played: 2000
Total Buy-in: $1500
Current Bankroll: $1725
Therefore net win as of right now: $225
Hands won 850 (42.5%)
Hands lost 952 (47.6%)
** Almost exactly the statistically normal win-lose ratio **
Pushes: 198 (9.9%)
Low Bet at count 19 or less is $10, 20 = $30, 21 = $60, 22 = $90, 23 and over = $100.
Reshuffle immediately after hand that brings six deck shoe down to under 30% of cards left. (My prior series reshuffled at 20%. Its results were better. That last 10 percent makes a difference.)

Charles has played more than 3x as many hands, so we don't have a true comparison here. Also, I don't track average bet, but my software does give the hands won/lost, so we're presenting slightly different information.

My conclusion at this point for what it's worth is that if you've got the skill and energy to keep count through 2000 hands and not attract heat with the wild jumps your bets will sometimes take, counting is obviously the way to win, and we all knew that anyway. But Charles has only been losing at a rate of $4.50 per hour, roughly what a movie costs, so it's not too bad a price to pay for relaxing entertainment. (Aside -- I'm almost certain flat betting would have produced a worse result than where Charles is at.)

Assuming my 2000 hands took 8.7 hours, (230 hands per hour in heads-up play) I made $25.86 per hour straining my brain, which is not relaxing at all and after really bad shoes, it feels like all that hard work gets you less than nothing. But at this point if I had done this all in one or two days, I'd probably be feeling pretty good about that $225 and I'd treat myself to a drink or two.

Desert Dog

[tuffy88]

Since this is the last day I thought I should give the BJ rules I have been using.
blackjack pays 3/2.
6 decks
dealer stands on soft 17
double on any starting 2 hands, including soft double's
re-split pairs to 4 times.
double down on split & re-split pairs.
no re-spliting ace's.
no surrender

The Cordosa program I am using flashes a warning if you make a mistake in BS. I make very few mistakes in BS, but with the warning I think I have played perfect BS in this drill. However I think the program makes several mistakes in BS. It says to only hit A/2 & A/3 against dealers up 5 & 6. Also to only hit 2/2, 3/3, against dealers 2 & 3: hit 4/4 against dealers 5 & 6: & to hit 6/6 against dealers 2. Here you can double after splits, so I split 2/2 & 3/3 against dealers 2 & 3. Also split 4/4 against dealers 5 & 6, & split 6/6 against dealers 2. With A/2 & A/3 against dealers 5 & 6 I doubled. At least I think that is BS. Correct me if I am wrong.

I know I don't have as many win streakes as I should. Don't know why.
I count as one win all double downs I win. With splits I count only 1 win or loss. If I win 2 or more splits or have 2 or more doubles after splits I count that as only 1 win. Start with 0 wins & losses with new shoe regardless what the count was at end of shoe.

I have mainly played straight up with the dealer. a few times played with 1 extra player & a few times with 2 extra players, but it took too much time clicking back & forth with each player, so most of the time played one on one with the dealer.

Have played 1 hour of Day 30. Will play the other hour later this afternoon & post later today.

Charles

[tuffy88]

DAY 30

(1) Total time played 66hrs.--38min.
(2) Total hands played 7194
(3) Total amount bet $108710
(4) Average bet $15.10
(5) Total amount lost $398
(6) #of four straight wins (7) seven. 5 four straight, 2 five straight.
(7) #of four straight losses (8) eight.

Interesting drill, but a little long. Came out within what has to be within 1 standard deviation, but with a lower loss than the normal house edge calls for.

My wife and I will be leaving tomorrow going north into Wisconson to observe the changing follage and leaf collars. Back at end of week.


Best,
Charles

[Grifter]

Tuffy - Nice job.....Thanks......Actually you were very, very close to the expected loss. The game you were testing has an EV of -0.43. Your results had -0.37, or a delta of only 0.07%.

[Doc]

Over 100k in play and less than a $400 dollar loss, pretty amazing statement about the strength of BS and/or Walter's progression. Since I day trip to the casinos in Tunica I don't work the 'comps' like others do. Grifter can you give us some idea of what this time period and level of play would get you from the Nevada houses you play at?

[Grifter]

Doc – Obviously that is impossible to answer precisely because of all the variables, but I can give you some general answers…..First let me say you may be asking the wrong person because I don’t play for comps. I show my card just enough to get either a free room or casino rate…….That said,

- This really isn’t enough action to get you much in the better places on the Strip. You are only talking a ‘handle’ of about $9K per day if you play six hours, and your unit is only $10. Most places won’t even rate you unless you are playing green. You would get some decent comps downtown, but I would play this in Laughlin.

- This would be a perfect game for Laughlin. You asked about a time frame for Tuffy’s hands. I would play these by going every other week for five weeks, playing 22 hours per trip…… Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

- You are showing the casino a rate of $15/hour for six hours per day for 3.5+ days. In Laughlin this should be enough to get you almost everything, especially since you are losing and of course you will tell them at the end of your first trip that you are coming back in about ten days or so. :wink: If you don’t get everything, you will probably get your meals and your room for say $12-$15 a night.

Doc, so much depends on how well you can “deal” (or “Grift”) 8) with the host, floor supervisor, or whoever you are dealing with; and how often you go there, etc., etc.

Grifter

[Desert Dog]

Doc -- You get modestly comped on the Strip provided you play x number of hours, but the comps jump to another level if your average bet is $25 or better.

Hey Grifter, exactly what hours of the day Monday thru Thursday would you play those 22 hours? From 3am to 830 am?

[Grifter]

Dawg - From 3-4 a.m. to 9-10 a.m. with a break for a steak 'n eggs breakfast......G.

[midnite]

By the way Dawg, that steak & egg brakfast (T-bone or N. Y. Strip steak) is $1.99, in Laughlin. Lets see 15% of, say $2.00, is a 30 cent tip. Just kidd-n....

[Doc]

Thanks Grifter, I think that I'm a little different than the ' the only thing that is fun is winning' folks on this board, I'm sort of ploppyish on the whole casino experiance as an entertainment venue, I think Tuffy's play would have great long term value for this in Laughlin or Tunica, with your comp return more than making up for the $400. Hope to get over to the delta this weekend as there is a break between muzzle loading and gun season here in Arkansas, otherwise 'if its brown its down'.

[Walter Thomason]

Doc: I doubled-up Charles' bet so that the progressive player would enter green chip territory. Based upon the casino expecting to win 2% of the action and comping at a 30% level (fairly moderate), the player would lose $796 but earn $1,304 in comps. By the way, had he won $796 he'd still qualify for the $1,304 in comps.

[Walter Thomason]

General observations re. tuffy's experiment:
1. The data would have been more usefull if we knew how a basic strategy flat bettor would have fared had he played the same hands.
2. Short term studies are interesting in that they show how volitility can effect outcome, and they show that short term results may not reflect long term expectation.
3. The matter of "tips" generated by Charles' computer program does not appear to have been addressed in the final outcome of the experiment.
4. The results seem to indicate that the progressive player lost less than that expected by a flat bettor, and I suspect that the progressive player would have won more than the flat bettor had the final outcome been positive in nature.
5. Comps generated "income" and offset losses.

Grif: You mentioned in an earlier post that you had run a similar study using my system, and that you would post the results after tuffy concluded his study. Do you still plan to do so?

[Grifter]

Walt – Here ya’ go. I thought I had 5K hands but only have 4K. Actually these hands were not a “similar study” as Tuffy’s. I was testing your method for an entirely different reason and didn’t care about streaks, average bet, etc. so I didn’t keep track of them. I’ll use Tuffy’s average bet for the results below.

Method………………………WT 10/15/20/25
Hands Played……………… 4,000
Amount Won/Lost……….+$135
Total Bet……………………...$60,400
Win Rate (%)……………… +0.22%
Win Rate/Hr ($)……………$3.38

Two Notes from my Worksheet:
1. “Hands were very streaky, minimal chop”…this helps WT progression.”
2. “Won 11 in a row = $245” …11 hands (this session) made up for previous 50 shoe loss” (last session).

Note to All…..I am neither pro nor con about this method . The above are merely the results of a meager 4,000 hands played for an entirely different reason than testing the validity of Walt’s method.

Grifter

[BuGhOu§eMASTER]

I'm curious... with Tuffy's experiment using WT's progression and losing only $400 is quite a marvelous feat... in addition to that Grifter's own analysis as well so...

What makes WT's 2-3-4-5-5-5... progression so strong?

I'm starting to lean towards that progression versus SLD/007 just based on Tuffy's >$100000 experiment!

[tuffy88]

Back from Wisconson. A nice time of year to drive in the country. Rained the last couple of days though.

Bug: I came out pretty close to what would be expected using perfect basic strategy with the house edge on my play. It showed the strength of basic strategy & that Walter's progression held up pretty well.

The amount of comps would at least reduce the loss. It might totally cover the loss in LV or Tunica. Where I play in Illinois it would not quite do it. We have a special tax problem here, & comps are pretty tight. The tax bite here was increased early this year & the casino's tightened up.
I was at the casino here this morning. Did not win.

Charles

[BuGhOu§eMASTER]

What makes WT's 2-3-4-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5... progression so strong though?

[BuGhOu§eMASTER]

Hello? Anyone home?

[bill]

i like wt's progession for these reasons:

i hardly ever get on huge winning streaks (5-8 winning hands in a row), but i get a lot mini-streaks (winning 2-4 hands in a row).
and with wt's progression, those mini-streaks become profitable.
but if i do happen to hit one of those winning streaks, im way ahead.
a huge winning streak is exactly what im looking for. the mini streaks just kind of keep me around and in action while im waiting for the big streak.

also, if i get on a losing streak, 4 loses in a row...... im gone. and it keeps my loses down.

i also like, if i win a hand.... i increase my bet, buy i dont risk all of my winnings. only a portion of it. at least i get portion of my winnings back.

im sure there are a ton of other good reasons as to why his progression is so strong. honestly, i didnt read his entire book. i couldnt get into all of the math and probabilities.

[PhilTx]

I've been following the progression vs. counting discussions for months.

Although belief-wise I'm firmly in the counting camp, it sure seems like it would settle a lot of progression discussions if there were software out there that could play a few thousand hands using one pre-set progression and then go back and re-play those identical hands using a different progression. Then the results could truly be compared.

I'm not in the software biz, but wouldn't something like that be possible for any programmer worth his salt? Maybe it already exists, but I've never seen it mentioned.

Thanks for all the great posts. Keep 'em comin'. Makes my day complete!

PhilTx

[BuGhOu§eMASTER]

After 4 consecutive losses, are we supposed to just QUIT playing that shoe, move to another table or what? Are either okay?

I'd like some explanation as to why 4 was chosen as the quitpoint... anyone?

[Mr. Ed]

PhilTx, that's exactly what Walter Thomason did (he posts here often, so you can ask him directly). Except theoreticians will point out that a few thousand hands is not nearly enough - try a few billion hands. Then progressionists will counter that actual experience experience at tables differs from simulated experience.

I say, ask youself how many hands you will play in your lifetime. If you're at a million or more, then definately learn to count. If you're less than 100,000, you might end up far away from expected value, so only count for "fun" - progressions are fine.

[bill]

regarding the quit point at 4. i use to play with a quit point at 3 loses in a row or 3 out of 4.

from my limited experience, it seems that (with the proper bankroll), 4 is better. a lot of times i would be sitting at 3 loses. my old way, i would have left the table. but with it at 4 loses, i stayed and would win a few hand in a row and progress my bets and end up covering those 3 loses.

[BuGhOu§eMASTER]

Walter?