Human Error and Player's Advantage
  • I was sitting in a Risk workshop the other day and probability of human error by experienced industrial workers was discussed. It got me wondering (i.e. my mind immediately segwayed into a lengthy daydreaming session of BJ at the expense of the risk presentation) if anyone has figured in human error into a player's advantage over the house who is an experience card counter.

    Given that human's are not perfect and make mistakes, errors with counting, deviation from BS, betting, etc. are likely to happen over the longrun for even the most experienced. A person may think he's playing perfect BJ, but may make a mistake and not realize it (an unknown unknown if the player thinks he's perfect or a known unknown if he knows he makes mistakes, but doesn't know how often).

    Has anyone done any analysis on this? What mistakes are most likely to occur and how often? It obviously would depend on how proficient the player is, how experienced, fatigue, amount of alcohol consumed, etc. but I was wondering how many or what kind of mistakes it would take for a player to lose his advantage.

    On the "Hit or Stand Game" portion of the message board, piasmo posts some stats on making BS errors through his/her playing 3000 hands on this website (see the "Deck favourable for the player thread"). For him, for every 1000 hands, he can expect to make a mistake on BS on a per hand basis (don't know how many total decisions piasmo made as each hand would have a varying number of cards) for less than 1% of the time.

    Thoughts anyone...or have I drank too much coffee today...thanks
  • Almost impossible to say, but you can get a good feel for what/how
    errors impact your game by looking at the following:

    Reduction in HA(player rules and actions)

    BJ................2.25%
    Splits............0.50%
    Proper H/S....3.25%
    Proper DD.....1.50%

    Total =7.5 from a start of 8%=.5 HA

    How you play your hands reduces the HA by 5.25% and that is good reason to have B/S down cold.

    Big Mistakes:

    Taking Ins if you are a B/S player
    Even money on BJ
    Doubling for less on a good double
    Fear of doubling/don't double
    Poor surrender play
    Improper bet spread
    Playing negative counts
    poor rules
    playing unplayable games

    Any/all of the above can eliminate your advantage quickly.

    Slightly smaller mistakes
    12 vs 12 stand
    12 vs 13 stand
    13,14,15,16 vs 7,8,9,10,A stand
    Playing soft hands incorrectly or backwards
    incorrect splits

    And you can't make too many of these as well.

    The wizardofodds.com site can give you the difference in the good and
    bad of each hand. Example: hit vs stand expectation.
  • Agreed with 99.9% of what you said Ray... But I would Change "Too small bet spread" to "Improper bet spread".... its possible one bets too much for conditions. Most H/L noobs tend to parlay as the score increases... this is wrong. (A parlay "looks" better.)
  • Done............
  • best tool someone can have here is CVCX. Input the rules, your chosen bet spread, counting system, etc, and the RoR you will accept or your bankroll size assuming 13.5% RoR, and it will tell you the optimal bet ramp. Some games should ramp at +1, some start at +2. A real AP needs to know which to play as strongly as possible...

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