I got question here, the casino I play they offer either CSM table or 8 Decks table with 2.5 Decks cut off. A table like this car counting still work? Anybody give me a suggestion please. :?:
Counting will not work with a CSM. 2.5/8 is poor penetration - counting will work, but unless you're playing black chip, your EV will be less than working at McDonalds.
counting will work, but unless you're playing black chip, your EV will be less than working at McDonalds.
LOL.
Yeah I agree... 2.5 decks cut-off from an 8-deck shoe is terrible! That's even worse than they do at the Isle where I play... there it is 6-deck but they have ~75% penetration. Is this figure okay? Where exactly does the advantage come from with MORE penetration in the shoe such as 80-90% penetration?
The advantage comes from seeing more cards. That way, if the shoe is really positive, there's more cards coming out before the next shuffle and a greater chance of making some serious $$$ off the shoe.
The advantage comes from more variance in the true count seen near the end of the shoe with the same running count. If there is one card left and it's a 10 the count is 1/(1/52)=+52!!!! If the running count is +1 and there's 1/4 deck left, the count is +4. With a running count of +6, with 3 decks left, the count is +2, with two left, it's +3, with one left, it's +6.
On the flip side, a running count of -1 with 1/4 deck left is -4!!!! So the count is positive as often as it is negative, but the absolute value of the count is much larger.
Specs, A less technical way of looking at penetration is to look at the ratio of cards behind the cut card to cards remaining to be played. Assume an 8 deck game with 75% pen (two decks cut out). Futher, assume there is 1/2 deck to be played. What is the ratio? It's 4:1 (2decks vs 1/2) and this is quite normal. Now assume your running count is +3 divided by 2.5 decks remaining = +1 true. Our expectations are for more high cards to come out in the last hand or two, but do they? With a 4:1 ratio its very possible that we could get all small cards. The reason for this problem is contamination of the remaining shoe/cards because of this 4:1 ratio. The higher the percentage of penteration the less the ratio; the less contamination of our expectation and the more likely we will receive large cards.