Two BS questions
  • 1>'The Game' sometimes says 'special situation' when hitting or not hitting 12 against dealer 2,3,4,5,6. I have found hitting 12 wins as often as it loses.

    2>I sometimes have gut feeling to stick on 16 when dealer shows 7,8,9 or 10. I take a card but often wish I had not. Am I alone on this?
  • Tondi: You are not alone on that. There are a few occasions when you should hit 12 against dealers 4 and more often when you should stand on 16 against dealers 10. Get a copy of Fred Renzy's " Blackjack Bluebook" and it explaines the reasons. Otherwise I think it is best to just follow BS.

  • 2>I sometimes have gut feeling to stick on 16 when dealer shows 7,8,9 or 10. I take a card but often wish I had not. Am I alone on this?

    Tuffy is correct. Also, 16 vs 10 is the ONLY card situation (out of 16 vs 7-8-9-10-A) that you're supposed to STAND in some situations. Unless the count is VERY skewed, you should ALWAYS hit your 16 against 7-8-9-Ace. Don't be afraid of busting; it will happen more times than not when you are showing 16 but the thing you must remember is that 16 is the worst possible player hand in the first place, so you are usually lost anyway, so why not IMPROVE that chance to actually make a hand? Renzey and others may elaborate this if need be.

    I have found hitting 12 wins as often as it loses.

    That may be the case in your few times in which you have tested, but based on billions and billions of trials, the computer derived Basic Strategy says to hit 12 ONLY against a 2 or 3 up on Multi-Deck games so this is what you should do as well. This is because 2 and 3 are "wild" for the dealer, meaning they can make a hand with many down cards, as opposed to a subservient 4-5-6 showing, where the dealer will then break the most.

    I mean, why risk busting your 12 against a 6, which is the highest % that the dealer will end up busting in the first place, you know I'm saying?
  • Tondi, basic strategy (BS) tells you the best move to make (given that you are not counting).

    Hitting 12v2 and 3 is a loser, but standing is a worse loser!

    Hitting 16v7-A is also a loser, but once again, standing is a worse loser!

    If you count, stand 16v10 when the running count is >0. The index on this hand is so close to zero, that you will make the better play just by looking at the 10's vs. "babies" (as Renzey puts it). More babies than 10s: stand.

    12v4 is another close one: more 10s than babies: HIT!

    Don't try to guess with the other deviations. Learn to count, learn your indexes, then vary whenever the count calls for it. The truth is that you will vary from BS maybe 2% of the time. It's a lot of work, so don't bother unless you prepared to invest the time.

    Having said all that, feel free to do whatever you want. It's your money. If you enjoy playing hunches, hunch to your heart's content. If you'd like to know the statistically correct move, don't deviate from BS unless the count says it's the right move. Your choice.
  • If surrender is allowed, by all means use it!

    Surrender loses 50% of your bet: the following lose more than 50%

    Hard 16 vs. 9,10,A
    Hard 15 vs. 10. ( but HIT 8,7 vs. 10)

    BTW... its OK to hit 10-2 vs. 4 ... You will lose 21% if you draw, and lose 21.1% if you stand in a 6 deck game (you gain more with FEWER decks). The other 12's lose 21.2% to draw, and 20.5% to stand, and a pair of 6's against a 4 is a very small winner if you can double down after a split.( win 0.5%)

    But in a 8 deck game you ALWAYS stand on 12 vs. 4. You lose more to draw than stand.... but not by much!


    Figure to lose 21% with the situation in general.
  • Mr. Ed said:
    12v4 is another close one: more 10s than babies: HIT!

    No, that is inaccurate. If there are even the SAME AMOUNT of 10's as babies, then you HIT. 12 vs 4 is so close you dont even need 1 more 10 than baby. Just as long as there are AS MANY 10's as babies you are free to implement ADVANCED Basic Strategy. BTW "babies" are 2-6.

    Mr. Ed failed to mention the other 5 "Advanced" Basic Strategy hands, so I will do so now, but keep in mind this is for MULTI-DECK play:

    9 vs. 2 ------ if 5 more babies than 10's (DOUBLE instead of HIT)
    11 vs. A ---- if 6 more babies than 10's (DOUBLE instead of HIT)
    13 vs. 2 ---- if 5 more 10's than babies (HIT instead of STAND)
    A/7 vs. 2 --- if 5 more babies than 10's (DOUBLE instead of STAND)
    A/8 vs. 6 --- if 5 more babies than 10's (DOUBLE instead of just STAND)

    Mr. Ed said:
    The truth is that you will vary from BS maybe 2% of the time.

    Actually these "Advanced" BS hands will appear 6% of the time, not 2% with the 16 vs. 10 hand being the most frequent, occuring 3% of the time.

    Tondi, I dont know if you're a counter but if you're not, BS and Advanced BS is really the best way to go. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but you cant argue with billions of card simulations and this computer-derived strategy!
  • Bug, I have to admit, I took a wild guess with my "maybe 2% of the time", but 6% seems high to me. Do these hands happen 6% of the time, OR do you deviate from BS 6% of the time? Do you get this distinction?
  • Well, it was an "alright" guess then :) You're not too far off.

    One of the ADVANCED BS hands will occur 6% of the time, with half of those being 16 vs. 10 specifically but I really dont understand the distinction because when you're performing ADVANCED BS you are in turn "deviating" from BS, no?

    Nope, 6% is the figure!
  • Bug
    6% seems high to me to. I am not where I can get a copy of Blackjack Blueboock, but I think Fred says there what the advantage of the 7 plays give you. I don't think it is as much as 6% of the hands should give you.

  • I never said it GIVES you a 6% advantage at all; what I said was that any 1 of those 7 hands WILL OCCUR 6% of the time, with 16 vs 10 specifically happening 1/2 of that time, or 3% of the time overall. Get the difference?
  • The MAG 7 HANDS: These will show up 6% of the time. Counting 10's vs. babies (2's thru 5's) on board, you'll deviate from B/S about 30% of those times. Counting cards throughout the shoe, you'll deviate about 40% of those times -- and they will be more accurately done.
    BTW, in counting the 10's vs. babies on board, there have to be the same number of babies as 10's. You could use 3's thru 6's as babies, but 2's thru 5's will get you to play 16 against a 10 (the most important hand due to it's high rate of appearance) more accurately.
  • Why 2-5 but not 2-6? 6 should be considered a BABY too since it's the worst card yo! ...

  • Best way to sum it up....
    10, J, Q, K vs. 2, 3, 4, 5 is a Balanced Count Rank to Rank, as is using 3, 4, 5, 6. However....

    Revere/Braun Card Value Analysis of the Situation (1 Deck) from "Playing Blackjack as a Business", "Comparing the Strategies" page at end of book.

    Values used are based upon Simple +/- .

    2=.66, 3&6=.77, 4=1.01, 5=1.29, 7=.50, 8=.00, 9=-.32, X=-.90, A=-1.06

    10JQK = -3.6
    2345 = +3.73
    2456 = +3.73

    10JQK = -3.6
    3456 = +3.84
    Not as Good

    10JQK = -3.6
    3457 = +3.57
    4567 = +3.57

    Note that in Simple +/- that 7's are ZERO score... therefore the better choice would be 2345 vs. 10JQK amoung those ranks that score +/-1.


  • Thanks Renzey: 30% of 6% is 2%! It's good to know my gut steers me in the right direction!

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