winning without counting....
  • Have any of you guys heard of G. Phillip Cline and his book??

    He has some real interesting facts in it.
  • What is the name of his book ?
  • It's called, "Beat the Odds Blackjack: Playing Percentages without Counting". I looked for about 5 minutes and could not find a review or a description of the book - just how to buy it.

    The cover looks nice, though.
  • Same here, No reviews,nothing that you could use to make a judgement.

    unclenorm: Why don't you give us a quick review?
  • First of all let me give you a bio of me.

    I am 64 years old and live in California in the winter and Minnesota in the summer. I play BJ 2-4 times per week.

    I have often wondered why a company that offers a game would sell books and little cheat cards to tell the player how to beat them..

    Cline states the same thing in his book. Cline bases his playing on percentages of winning rather than counting. I have tried his method and have had about a 70-80 percent win rate. In other words after playing 10 days I have won 7 days.

    I do not count cards as I have enough to do just adding up my own hand and the dealers hand.

    I contacted Mr. Cline and he is now offering me additional information on how to win for $295.00. I am hesitating on spend this amount of money until I get more info from Mr. Cline as to what I would be getting.

    I have been playing at casino with a blind player and he plays very much like Cline does and he always walks away with about $2,000.00 per day since I have been watching him.

    I make my living in the Computer industry so I feel I have very good logic but I am still looking for a good money management method. The 1 - 3 - 2- 6 looks good but try to win four hands in a row.

    I also have played a lot of country music and enjoy blackjack as much.

    Norm
  • Yes, very interesting indeed.

    How about you tell us his method so we can try it on our own to see if we are as successful as him and you? I'm interested in something that would let me win 75% of the time. That's good enough for me without counting!
  • unclenorm said:


    I have been playing at casino with a blind player and he plays very much like Cline does and he always walks away with about $2,000.00 per day since I have been watching him.



    And he hasn't politely been shown the front door??

    Jeez, here I am worried about a $500 profit twice a week drawing attention.

    I like that casino!
  • I have only played with this guy 5 times as I just started goinig to this casino.

    The dealers count his cards for him and the pit boss comps him for his meals.

    I think you guys are to worried about being banned for winning a little money. If there were only lossers at the tables pretty soon nobody would play the game. They need to show that money can be made.

    By the way I played last night for only 1 hour using cline's method and won $200.00 profit. You are all putting to much faith in B/S.

    Keep track of your splitting aces and tell me in after 20 of these how you did.

    Norm
  • unclenorm said:
    You are all putting to much faith in B/S.

    Norm....Do you really mean this? It would appear to me that you are putting too much faith in a guy no one has ever heard of, and have only been using his method for about ten days.

    It would help if you could give us some proof.....An easy one for instance, using this method; what is your EV for a 6D,S17,DAS game?

    Grifter
  • How does someone "put to faith", as in "You guys are putting to much faith in B/S."

    Actually I don't have faith in BS, I know BS is a statistical expectation - I've modeled it myself. And I also have a good handle on normal variations from this expectation and my experience conforms to these expectations.

    I have faith in God, I have faith in my ability to overcome hardships, but I know BS produces the best expected outcome in blackjack.
  • whoops, I need to add a caveat.....

    ...unless the count dictates a deviation from BS.
  • And even with your caveat, Ed.....The indices for a count are like BS in that they have their own proven statistical expectations.
  • unclenorm said:
    x
    I think you guys are to worried about being banned for winning a little money. If there were only lossers at the tables pretty soon nobody would play the game. They need to show that money can be made.



    I admit to being a bit scared from some of the articles I've seen posted, about backroom tactics and such. Is this just propaganda bull?

    Maybe UncleNorm is right. Maybe I'm just being paranoid. He's right, they have to let somebody be shown to be winning.
  • "Backroom tactics" do happen to law abiding advantage players. It is very rare, but even one event is not acceptable. That is why one needs to be careful and not advertise that one is counting.

    But casinos are not completely stupid - if you count cards, but play infrequently, play discretely, and play low limits, they won't bother to "backroom" you, or even ask you to leave. So relax.

    "They" don't "have" to "let" anybody win. This is a game with a large variance and a small advantage. People who are temporarily ahead, or people who are, for example, ahead for the year, but down over their lifetime, will tell the world what a great winner they are. Casinos are confident, that for every winner, there is at least one loser. They have the "long term" on their side.
  • Basic Strategy...I truly believe that if each and ever player played
    perfict BS, the casinos would no longer offer blackjack. Yes, they could
    still make money in that situation, but it becomes a question of how much
    money. Don't sell BS short; without it we would have no chance...none
  • I'm not so sure. What does it cost the casino to run a table for a year? Say $250,000. With a house advantage of 0.5%, that's a handle of $50 million/year. A table is open 24/7, so that's maybe 8000 hours a year (I'm rounding down). That's 6250/hour. Figure maybe 200 hands/hour. Set the table limit at $50 and you support perfect BS players! Personally, $50 is out of my league, but I've seen plenty of packed $50 tables.
  • Mr. Ed – Don’t take this personal because I realize you are fairly new to blackjack, and I have no idea where you got the data for the post above, but you are really off with those numbers. So that no one is mislead……. Let’s take an average blackjack table in an average casino in Nevada:
    1. It does not cost $250,000 to maintain a table.
    2. Tables are not played 24/7, or 8,000 hours.
    3. Hands per hour will not even be close to 200.
    4. Average bet will not be $50.
    Regards…..Grifter
  • Without seeing an operating plan our numbers are more than likely not even close, one way or the other. If I rely on experience and
    treat a blackjack table as a product offering, then I have some real
    reasons that tend to support my views. The charge back to a BJ table,
    direct or indirect, is all inclusive. The list of items seems never ending
    and in some cases will cause a company to stop production of a product
    for the simple reason that it becomes a libility rather than an asset. I
    don't need to think twice about the low end tables for some of the monsters in LV, they can't possibly be an asset and must be included
    as another cost to do business. Just my thought Guys.....................

    Ray
  • Grifter, no offense taken - I did make up the numbers. But do you think a casino could offer BJ (and make a profit!) if every player used perfect BS?
  • Mr Ed/Ray - My post had nothing to do with your discussion. It was made solely for the purpose of letting newer people/visitors know that 200 hands per hour, $50 average bets, etc. was not typical.

    As a matter of fact, I tend to agree with you two learned gentlemen. I don't know it for a fact, but I don't think a 0.5 edge would be enough to carry the house.

    Grifter
  • I wish I were a diplomat......................
  • And I wish I was a millionaire :)
  • Grifter, I'll clarify:

    200 hands per hour - this is my guess at what a table might see in an hour. I thought 5 players at a table, each getting 40 hands/hour, was low, if anything.

    $50 average bet - I was thinking of a table with a minimum bet of $50. Again I was being conservative - my best guess would actually be more like $100 at a $50 table.

    I'm curious, what do you think it costs a casino to run a BJ table? I'm guessing the biggest cost is labor - three 8 hour shifts, even at minimum wage, starts to add up once benefits and taxes are added in. Add part of a pit boss, whoever else is in the pit, plus survailance, security, etc. Next comes floor space, equipment rentals for chairs, tables, cards, chips, etc.. I'm not in business, so my wild guess is $250,000/year. Do you think that's high or low?

    A table open 24/7. I was thinking that the casino would reduce supply to the point that the table would be full, 24/7. I said 8000 hours to be conservative - to allow cleanup crews and maintenance crews, every once in a while.
  • Ed - Again, I only posted for the reason stated above, and the way that post was worded…..and now I wish I had just let it slide. :wink: ….just kiddin’.

    I figured I knew how you were coming up with those numbers, but thanks for the explanation. Your original question was “What does it cost to run a table for a year?” Hell Ed, you are the “numbers guy” in the Forum…..but I do have some comments.

    First of all, to figure the cost of a table we have to include all tables in a casino. Agreed? If a casino has 12 tables we use total cost and divide by12.

    I think you are high on your estimate of $250,000 per table per year. And I think the reason for this is you are not figuring in enough “down time”. This is a tremendous factor, especially for small and medium sized 24/7 casinos; and especially during the week……Two examples come to mind immediately. (1) The last time Midnite and I played in Kansas, we went to a casino that had six blackjack tables and got there at 3:00 a.m. There were three players total, betting $10; and we were told the entire shift had been that way. (2) Last month in Laughlin I stayed at one of the nicest, best casinos, same thing…..Went down at 2:00 a.m. one morning and me and two other players were the only ones for almost the entire shift. This casino has 12 blackjack tables (I’m using these smaller casinos for an example, but the ratio is the same in the big LV Strip ones).

    You are right, of course, about the most significant cost being salaries, but here again let’s figure in the “down time”. I agree about using minimum wage, so let’s just use $12 DPE for a dealer and $18 for a pit boss (just for this example)……and let’s use the graveyard shift at the Laughlin casino I referred to above. Total labor cost for 12 tables equals $240 or $20 per table for the eight hour shift…..Multiply this times 365 and the total labor cost for the graveyard shift per table is $7,300….Round it up and say $10,000.

    I just realized this post could go one forever if I went into everything, so let me cut it off. Ed, for salaries take the above $10,000 for graveyard, quadruple it for the day shift, and octuple it for the night/evening shift……That will come up to about 130,000 for labor. I’m just guessing like you were, but IMHO this shouldn’t be that far out of line.

    The point is…….the down time is critical in figuring the cost per table. AND the same thing will apply to average bet per table, etc., etc.

    Sorry to get so long, and I didn’t even get started. 8) …..But do you see where I am coming from?

    Regards…..Grifter.
  • I'm so jealous - I go to Foxwoods at 3:00am on a Wednesday and I'm happy to find a seat at a $10 table.

    Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas any more!
  • You're kidding!!!.....(but I know you aren't). I am not that familiar with east coast blackjack, but I would "guess" the reason is there are only two really decent casinos for all of New England. Am I close to right??
  • Look Toto, there is Auntie Em and Uncle Ed. We must be in Connecticut.
  • The CT casinos have you by the balls and they know it, although I must say the rules aren't bad. Comps are nothing to write home about either but I guess its better than nothing.

    Last time I was there Foxwoods only had 8-deck unless you're willing to play at $50 (maybe $100?). Mohegan Sun has some 6-deck with lousy pen and 8-deck and a bunch of CSM's. At neither place have I ever seen a game less than $10, which is ok by me but it would be nice if they offered a few $5 tables.

    The annoying thing is if its off-hours then they only open up a limited number of tables - so you can never get away from crowded playing conditions.
  • An interesting point about River boats came up last Mon & Tues.
    These are off days and they close half the place down, But the
    games that they do have are great. Pen is about 80% and all
    dealers are fast. I didn't believe what I was seeing. I guess
    its a matter of economics..........A far cry from weekend play.
  • AHHHHYAA.... beats lowerin the limits. Pack'em in and make 'em pay. ;o)

    Currently the only 2 period. I remember when there was only 1.
    Maybe in 5-10 years a third one...Hopefully NOT in the same area, but in the NW corner of CT. Ahhhhh, the BERKSHIRES!

    N&B
  • Mr.Ed- When we went to the casino at 3am and found three other players, I thought it was....crowded.

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!