Luck and timing
  • No matter the logic, strategy or system, luck and timing are necessary ingredients for winning!

    I played three hours yesterday on a casino cruise boat. I struggled for 2 hours and 55 minutes and was down 32 units when they announced last hand. I had 32 units left so I played 3 hands, 8 units each. I had 15, 17 and soft 18 vs dealer 4 showing. I doubled down on the soft 18 and got a six. The dealer turned up a 10 and broke! I won all my bets and broke even for the session. If I had not taken the six he would have wiped out the table. Needless to say, I was the table hero.

    I did the same thing earlier in the session with the same card scenario and lost when the dealer hit 21 and beat my 20.

    Just thought I'd share ....

    Tony
  • No matter the logic, strategy or system, luck and timing are necessary ingredients for winning!


    ...And how do you propose one achieves luck & timing while gambling?

    If I had not taken the six he would have wiped out the table. Needless to say, I was the table hero.


    No such thing as "hero"... the cards were just in your favor, and rewarded you for playing good BS.

    Tondi, are you a flawless Basic Strategist? Do you ever play by "hunch" maybe after losing 3 doubledown 11 vs. 10 hands because of frustration?
  • If one could figure out a way to "achieve" luck, it wouldn't be luck any more, it would be skill.

    But even though a counter knows he has a long-term 1.5% advantage, on any given play, hour, day or even month, luck will have more of an impact than the expected advantage. Think about it: you bet $10 and know you have a 1.5% advantage. How are you going to win 15 cents? You can't. You may win (good luck), you may loose (bad luck). Or you might be like Tondi, with 4 max bets and win them all.

    Until you get to the (very) long-term, luck will be more important than expected value.

    I know you're smart enough to know this already, but your question implies that sometime, somewhere, somehow, there is a way to "achieve" luck and I just want everyone to know that it just isn't so.
  • Mr. Ed is right and knows where I am coming from ...

    There are casinos that advertise slots which pay back 99%!
    They just might BUT is that over a period of a session, a month, a year or life of the machine? I have known people who will sit and feed a slot for
    24 hours and lose 100%. I also sat at a casino bar once and watched a guy get up, take a $20 from his change, say I'll be right back, walk to a machine and win $1,000,000.00 and have change left from the $20.

    I have seen people hit hard 12 v. 5 or 6 and win. I met a lady who hits hard 14 'every' time for some personal juju reason and win, win, win.

    I and others have many times done the wrong thing and won just as we have done the right thing and lost. We all play because we enjoy it, win lose or draw! Winners call it 'skill,' losers call it 'bad cards.' I call it entertainment. No matter who, what or where ... in single sessions and short term, Luck and Timing rule!
  • Yeah, I see what you're saying Tondi & Ed.... but:

    Tondi, are you a flawless Basic Strategist? Do you ever play by "hunch" maybe after losing 3 doubledown 11 vs. 10 hands because of frustration?


    Still waiting for your answers :)
  • I could be flawless BS player but am not ...
    I will sometimes go with gut exceptions.
  • Why do you wish to play like that? Would you rather not play the computer simulated hardcore BEST way to play all hands? You really sound like my stubborn friend... :(
  • Relax, Bug. Tondi knows what he's getting into - that's all we can do for him. He likes the fun and excitement of taking a risk and doing a "dumb" thing. As long as he doesn't cause financial hardship to himself or family, it's his money, let him be. Peace.
  • I will say this ...
    Looking back on the occasions when I chose to go with gut instead of BS,
    I don't believe I did any better or worse than otherwise. Sometimes when cards are not behaving or choppy, I will do things to change the flow. I will sometimes jump to two hands from one hand or drop back to one hand if playing two. I have been gambling, off and on for 40 years.
    Got interested in BJ about a year ago. Started playing regularly 2-3 times a week, 3 hrs per session 3 months ago. First month, won 16000 units. Second month lost 4000 units. This month, my third month, I am down about 2000 units. My system is start with 2 units, go to 3, then 4 units on wins, fall back to 2 on loss and fall back to one if lose at 2 units.
    I may not be perfect but am happy with results so far and am having fun.
  • With all due respect, doing something to change the "flow of the cards" is a myth, like doing a rain dance to make it rain. If you do a rain dance every day, eventually it will rain - does your rain dance make it rain? Like wise, if you do something to change "misbehaving" cards, eventually, they'll change.

    Of course, it's your money, so do what you want, but please don't get mad at me if I mid-shoe entry and "mess up the flow of the cards". Or if I double A8v6, or stand with 16v10, don't blame me if you lose.

    Best of Luck! (I still believe in "Luck". I just call it something erudite like "variance" or "standard deviation".)

    Better yet: May your results fall far to the right on the bell curve!

    Enjoy!
  • A lot of times when you play your gut, it's really because you have unconsciensly noticed a certain flow of the cards. Perhaps a lot of low cards have been coming out, etc.

    The whole object of the game is to have fun. Whatever flaots your boat.

    If you want to sit there and play like a machine and you get personal satisfaction from that, great. If you want to get drunk and play like there is no BS then go for it.

    Hey, it's only money right :)
  • But wds & tondi:

    You are at the casino to make $$, aren't you? Or are you there just to donate all your hard-earned dough to the already rich casino? If your answer is the former (which I really hope it is), than why would you NOT want to always play the BEST way you can, i.e. flawless & strict BS?!?! Additionally, would you rather lose a huge bet going on your "GUT INSTINCTS" or by playing your hand the BEST way, knowing that you executed the right play???
  • Bug,

    "You are at the casino to make $$, aren't you?"

    I go to casinos because I enjoy it. Yes, I do play to win BUT ...
    I am not a pro and do not rely on BJ play for a living. If that were the case, I would play tighter and stricter flawless BS. I probably do use BS about 95% of the hands played. The other 5% or so is variation from 'strict' BS due to either error or gut play. As I said in previous post, I have looked back at some of my variation plays and concluded I have not won or lost more than had I played 'strict' or 'flawless' BS. I have several times made the wrong play and won just as I have made the right play and lost. In a two or three hour session, the long term percentages go out the window and the immediate variation short term consequences are minimal, either way, but I enjoy making the call and exercizing my option rather than sit and play like a robot. You are making a bigger deal out of my post/thread than necessary. I only intended to share the experience with no expectation of response. My only point was ... in a short session, winning or losing is very much dependent on whether the cards are running hot or cold and whether or not Lady Luck is with us or not with us.
  • further to this discussion ....

    I had a winning session yeaterday. During this session session I had eleven five times with the dealer showing a break card. Of course I doubled down all five times. Three of the five times I got hit with an Ace. The other two times I got hit with a four and five. I lost ALL five hands!
    My average bet was 3 units on each of those hands so the swing was a total of 30 units so I would have won much more if I had won only three of those five hands.

    What would a "prefect, flawless" BS player call that?
    I call that BAD LUCK!
  • Then again you could have been dealt an A8 against a dealer 5 with an A/5 score of +5 (7 more Aces remaining than 5's). I had this, and decided to "gamble" and DD my 4 unit bet. I looked around, I had the only hand to draw, and there was only 1 other standing hand on the table, a Face-8. All others 12-16. I get a 2. Dealer flips a Queen, and draws a King. Bye-bye dealer... HELLO UNCLE BEN.

    N&B
  • "decided to "gamble""

    some may call that a gamble, some (I) call that an "opportunity." :)
  • You are making a bigger deal out of my post/thread than necessary.


    Nope, I'm just asking what kind of a "gambler" are you? If you are just wanting to give away your money freely, or MAXIMIZE your blackjack time.


    I only intended to share the experience with no expectation of response.


    Okay, but are you forgetting this is a public message board in which everyone has their opinions about what anyone posts? So therefore you should expect responses from your impending posts!!
  • Nickels: Come on now, you didn't have to "decide to gamble", you would
    have made that play come hell or high water, right?

    Luck- Speaking of luck; it does seem like some people are just lucky.
    It's not resonable, it's not logical, but that seems to be the case. Me,
    well if I depended on luck, then me and a "CHURCH MOUSE" would
    have a lot in common. We would be poor; very poor.

    Ray
  • But it DID look like an unusual play to the rest of the BS players at the table, so I said, "I'll gamble", and doubled up.

    HELL YEAH!

    N&B

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