Faking a progression to up your bets.
  • As far as I know, if your betting more than one unit, when you have the edge, than your in pretty good shape.

    Now, supose that you can count cards & the count calls for an increase in your wager (Lets use the SPEED COUNT in this example where you have an edge when the count is 31 or greater & lets not argue the counts strength!).

    --COUNT IS 32 and gyrating, but 32 or greater--

    What is wrong w/ this "progression?": (LLW) 5 5 5 (LWW) 10 5 10 (LLL) 15 10 10 (WWL) 10 20 30 ---> next bet is 20 as you use the 2nd lowest unit wager as your starting point. Your at 4x min bet or 6x min (in 12 hands) and can leave it there until count calls for you to pull the plug.

    Wouldn't this or some modification of this progression be a good way to increase your bets to the "ideal" level & then use step *2* to let our massive betting ramp (in a favorable count) womp on the casinos head? Can you see how 20x min bet ( 1-20 spread) or more could be possible?

    (*2* which is to quit your progression and leave your bets at that high lvl until the count no longer warrents it)

    Now, if progressions don't work, the casino should know this. Then why would they back you off if your bets skyrocket using a progression (after all, if you continued to up your min bet like that, Risk of Ruin would woop your rump!)?
  • Mighty Joe said:
    As far as I know, if your betting more than one unit, when you have the edge, than your in pretty good shape.

    Now, supose that you can count cards & the count calls for an increase in your wager (Lets use the SPEED COUNT in this example where you have an edge when the count is 31 or greater & lets not argue the counts strength!).

    --COUNT IS 32 and gyrating, but 32 or greater--

    What is wrong w/ this "progression?": (LLW) 5 5 5 (LWW) 10 5 10 (LLL) 15 10 10 (WWL) 10 20 30 ---> next bet is 20 as you use the 2nd lowest unit wager as your starting point. Your at 4x min bet or 6x min (in 12 hands) and can leave it there until count calls for you to pull the plug.

    Wouldn't this or some modification of this progression be a good way to increase your bets to the "ideal" level & then use step *2* to let our massive betting ramp (in a favorable count) womp on the casinos head? Can you see how 20x min bet ( 1-20 spread) or more could be possible?

    (*2* which is to quit your progression and leave your bets at that high lvl until the count no longer warrents it)

    Now, if progressions don't work, the casino should know this. Then why would they back you off if your bets skyrocket using a progression (after all, if you continued to up your min bet like that, Risk of Ruin would woop your rump!)?


    No!
    That will not work. The surveillance is calculating your average bet during positive counts and compare it with the average bet during negative counts. If that difference between averages is over 2:1 you will be labeled as card counter and be barred from the tables.

    For example: if spread from $25 to $100, you will have $25 average on negative and about $70 on positive counts. Just calculate your averages on pos and neg on your progression and you will understand what I'm talking about.

    Doesn't matter how you bet, progression or not. As long as your average on positive vs. negative is around 2:1 you will have the edge and casinos don't like it!
  • AlexD30 said:
    No!
    That will not work. The surveillance is calculating your average bet during positive counts and compare it with the average bet during negative counts. If that difference between averages is over 2:1 you will be labeled as card counter and be barred from the tables.

    For example: if spread from $25 to $100, you will have $25 average on negative and about $70 on positive counts. Just calculate your averages on pos and neg on your progression and you will understand what I'm talking about.

    Doesn't matter how you bet, progression or not. As long as your average on positive vs. negative is around 2:1 you will have the edge and casinos don't like it!


    Surveillance is not calculating either the count or your bet spread unless they were told to evaluate you or the casino is using something like Mindplay. Now if they or the pit had a reason to evaluate you, a progression would do you no good, but unless alerted, the eye is just looking around and taping everything for review if necessary later.
    Many counters have good insticts when it comes to detecting heat, some are completely paranoid and a few will blast away till they show them the door.

    ihate17
  • Using a progession in high counts is not necessarily a bad thing, but I personally
    don't think it's much of a good thing either.

    I suppose the question is this: would it deflect attention away from you as a card
    counter or not? I doubt any form of progression limited to +ve edge counts is
    going to do much to keep you under the radar. And while it's true that betting more
    over 31 is good, it's also imperative to bet increasingly more, and make sure the
    effectively bet ramp is met. For example, using a 1 to 4 bet ramp in a six
    deck game is going to make you a loser, not a winner (about 0% edge, depending
    on rules).

    Myself, I just avoid 'punitive camouflage' always, which your +ve edge bet ramp is in effect.
    It would have one of two effects (or both):

    - lower your total average high-count bets, which is costly to your edge.

    - give you false hope that the extreme high-end bets the 'progression' would
    call for would be 'masked' (i.e. 30 unit bets). A big bet is a bet... no
    progression is going to hide it from the pit bosses!

    Having said this, I do 'scale' my bet jumps, when the count moves
    too quickly in one direction (particularly up). And, I may be careful with the bet
    size if I suspect the pit is watching. But 90% of the time, I'm betting the count
    (I do sit out low counts very aggressively... regardless of the mid-shoe entry nonsense,
    I find that just sitting out a hand or two with camo-talk is rarely called out).

    I favor 'subjective camoouflage': things that don't effect edge. Like
    sitting out hands, leaving the casino after a high-count win, talking
    up the crew, not looking like you're counting, etc.

    Another problem with 'managing' your big bets too much (progession or otherwise)
    is that you have no way to know the true impact on your edge. I've seen counters
    doing all kinds of punitive bets or actions on purpose, thinking it's great cover
    without understanding the impact (this is why with Speed Count we advocate one
    fixed, non-changing OBS. No exceptions).

    Thanks,

    Dan xxxxxxxxxxx <--- i didn't ask if i could post this:D
  • ihate17 said:
    Surveillance is not calculating either the count or your bet spread unless they were told to evaluate you or the casino is using something like Mindplay. Now if they or the pit had a reason to evaluate you, a progression would do you no good, but unless alerted, the eye is just looking around and taping everything for review if necessary later.
    Many counters have good insticts when it comes to detecting heat, some are completely paranoid and a few will blast away till they show them the door.

    ihate17

    The casinos are using a program that can determine the average bet size. This program means that what I have been reporting for years in respect to the casinos using "bet averaging" methods of card counter detection has been verified.

    Understand that in order to win with any card counting system you need to spread your wagers. In a shoe game you need to spread from 1 to 8 and in a typical double deck game you need to spread 1 to 4 units just to break even,. By using bet size averaging, the casinos can tell immediately whenever a player is spreading enough in favorable counts to offset his losses in unfavorable counts. So regardless of all the so-called "camouflage" propaganda you might hear coming from the system hucksters and their agents, the "bet averaging" method of card counter detection renders ALL camouflage totally worthless.

    Regardless of when you jump your bets, i.e.; after a win, after a loss, etc.., you cannot gain any advantage unless your AVERAGE wager in positive is at least 2:1 vs. negative average. Once your bet averages show up at this level, the casinos know immediately they have detected a card counter. And if you do not spread, YOUR CARD COUNTING SYSTEM IS WORTHLESS! There is no way to duck this method of card counter detection.

    Your disguises cannot work. Anyone that tells you different is either an idiot or a con man or both.
  • AlexD30 said:
    The casinos are using a program that can determine the average bet size. This program means that what I have been reporting for years in respect to the casinos using "bet averaging" methods of card counter detection has been verified.

    Understand that in order to win with any card counting system you need to spread your wagers. In a shoe game you need to spread from 1 to 8 and in a typical double deck game you need to spread 1 to 4 units just to break even,. By using bet size averaging, the casinos can tell immediately whenever a player is spreading enough in favorable counts to offset his losses in unfavorable counts. So regardless of all the so-called "camouflage" propaganda you might hear coming from the system hucksters and their agents, the "bet averaging" method of card counter detection renders ALL camouflage totally worthless.

    Regardless of when you jump your bets, i.e.; after a win, after a loss, etc.., you cannot gain any advantage unless your AVERAGE wager in positive is at least 2:1 vs. negative average. Once your bet averages show up at this level, the casinos know immediately they have detected a card counter. And if you do not spread, YOUR CARD COUNTING SYSTEM IS WORTHLESS! There is no way to duck this method of card counter detection.

    Your disguises cannot work. Anyone that tells you different is either an idiot or a con man or both.


    Yes casinos have programs. If you play at a Mindplay house, it is tracking everyones bet but Mindplay is a total failure in Vegas, run out of the Hilton first and then Flamingo because players will not play on it (not talking counters here) and the pit know knows that the main purpose of it is to reduce the number of pit jobs.

    If you play in a house with RFID chips, they will calculate your bet exactly but still must run the below mentioned program to adjust those bets to the count.

    If you play anywhere else: They have a computer program that a survillance person must run on individual counters. It ties up the person, he is now dedicating 45 minutes (answer to the question of why counters play short sessions) to a single player. There are not enough people in any surviellance department to be doing this for every single player. The procedure is for the pit first to be suspicious of your play, get on the phone and call the eye, the pit will then ignore you while the eye runs its program. The program will tell them if you are counting and if you are effective at counting.

    I do not know where you get your attitude from, perhaps you are a casino employee (if so you are just a lier) or just one of thousands of people who tried to count but never did all you must do to become a winning counter and today are extremely bitter. I have been doing this for 29 years and I lost in 3 of the first 5 years that I counted but in 21 of the last 24 I have been a winner. Furthermore an 8-1 spread on most shoes and 4-1 on double deck will not bring in enough money to really make it worth it. You need 12-1 on the shoes and 8-1 on double deck and 4-1 on single deck. On the double deck game a smart casino would label you a losing counter (afraid to put out the big bets) and let you play but a sweat shop would toss you. 8-1 on the shoe is more borderline and will definately work with some wonging.

    Finally, surviellance is one of the lowest paid, poorest staffed departments in even the biggest and best of casinos. The recording of everything for later review is mainly what they do.

    ihate17
  • AlexD30 said:
    ................, In a shoe game you need to spread from 1 to 8 and in a typical double deck game you need to spread 1 to 4 units just to break even,. ..............AlexD30



    Your disguises cannot work. Anyone that tells you different is either an idiot or a con man or both.
  • The casinos don't "know" they can only highly suspect that you are a counter. Unless of course you're a noobus, but thats a diff. story.
    As it was said some where else on this forum, it takes time for them to label you as a card counter. First you have to be playing PERFECT basic strategy in negative counts for them to even start to watch you ( since only about 1% of the Blackjack population plays perfect BS you stand out....and they already know the trick of card counters using BS cards so throw those little things away........they just tell the casino that you are that much closer to jumping the Neg to Positive gap).
    Now when the count turns positive they will really be watching your perfect BS booty!

    In blackjack for blood the author said that playing suboptimally on your min. bets in a negative count has very little affect on your edge. After all, any bets placed in a negative count is lost money anyways.

    So say that you made every play that the casino/& your friends would call incredibly fuggin rediculous and you gave the casino a 2% edge on $5 or $0.10 a hand, but played perfectly in positive counts w/ say a .7% edge on $50 or $0.35 per hand. The computer compared your avrg. bet to the way you played and told the casino that it was banking off of you. Then you played perfectly and aggressivly w/ in your 30-45 min time frame in a +ev count and left. They have too little time to evaluate your new play ( to compare to your spread to figure out your/their edge.

    Had you increased your bets 1-10 playing suboptimally they would be making 2% of $50 or $1 per hand!

    NOTE: casino's edge on "jerry kid" strategy is an example not actual.

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