How to win money at Blackjack!
  • Lately I have been reading a lot of blackjack books and online forums, and have come up with a personal blackjack thesis, that I would like to share, and possibly get others opinions on!

    Two players seat down at a table and play 100 hands, the first guy plays perfect strategy and bets $5 dollars a hand and after 100 hands wins 51% of his hands and is only up $10. The second guy however plays willy-nilly and loses 75% of his hands, but when he loses he bets $5 but when he wins bets $20, and is up $125. Who is the better player?

    The main goal of blackjack is to win as much money as possible, which is accomplished by maximixing your winnings when you win, and minimizing your loses when you lose. To accomplish this, people count cards, do progressive betting, cheat and etc. If you knew for sure that the next hand would be a winner you would bet all your money and win big, but there is no way you can predict a sure winner. You can however predict when your chances of getting a winner are high, and then bet accordingly, by several factors (mainly counting cards).

    I have mixed feelings on progressive betting (I currently just started reading 21st century blackjack). I know there are streaks in blackjack, but I believe that they happen by chance, and there is no way to predict when they will happen. You could run 5 test or 500 million and I don't think it would prove anything different.

    I believe if you want to win at blackjack you need to be able to predict when you will get a winning hand and bet accordingly, is this easy - no, is it impossible - I believe not. In my example about the two guys, you could say yeah in the long run though, the guy who doesn't play basic strategy will lose more money - maybe, but maybe he knows something you don't or maybe the guy is just lucky - people do beat the odds all the time (lottery winners) thats why it is called gambling!

    Any comments would be appreciated, I am not an expert on the subject, just a novice opinion that could be swayed with a strong argument!
  • I probably didn't make my point all that clear, so here it is:

    The key to successful blackjack is to win as much money as possible when you have a winning hand, the question I have though is what is everybody's opinion on how to do that (be it a betting strategy, count strategy or whatever else)?
  • we sure can't predict when streaks will occur but we can do all we can to take full advantage of them when they DO occur.
    good luck!
  • You say "The key to successful blackjack is to win as much money as possible when you have a winning hand..."

    It's not teh key, that's the definition of succeful blackjack. The key is how you get there. BS with a good, solid progression system that you can perform correctly over the long haul works for me.

    In your scenario, you assume the guy playing willy nilly will have big bucks on teh table only when he wins. You might as well spit in one hand and wish in the other and see which gets filled first. Yes people do get lucky and win the lottery or big in slots, but over all they lose big time.
    If you don't want o put the effort into becoming good at blackjack, don't play. You'll just be throwing your money away.
  • jm: In 1980 a blackjack expert by the name of Charles Einstien wrote a 71 page pamphlet ($2) entitled, "Basic Blackjack Betting". Based upon over 28,000 consecutively-dealt hands, he recommended the following betting system: Using perfect Basic Strategy, start with a $5.00 wager, then bet $5.00 after a loss and $25.00 after a win. Very simple!
    The statisticians and computer simulation guys totally discounted the value of this betting system... no big surprise.
  • I have not finished Thomason book yet, so my opinion is not totally formed on his system. It might be great, I don't know, my first initial thought before I started reading the book though was skeptical!

    Even with counting, a flat bettor will not win big in the long run, that is why I picked up Thomasons book.

    I always play basic strategy, and never would recommend anything different (unless there was more information available - dealer accidently showed a card, etc.). My example was an exaggeration of a point that if you knew when to bet big and you did, you would be better off then the flat bettor. Probablities say that the non-BS player will lose in the long run, but in reality that might not be true (luck is sometimes a factor - even be it a long term factor).

    I still need to add items to my blackjack playing repertoire (advanced strategy, a perfected count, etc.) hopefully the progression theory will be a beneficial addition! Any other advice on what to add would be appreciated.
  • I too have found that basic strategy coupled with Walter Thomasons' positive progressive betting system with quit points has done WONDERS for my session results!! Like $$$$$ if you know what i mean!
    Good luck!
  • Hi: I am VERY glad to become a member of this group. I believe I can learn a lot. I am past 60 years old and have played a lot over the years, but never that seriously. I have more time now to play and would like to ask some questions and make a comment about progressive betting. There is a casino site online who allows bets to begin at one dollar and proceed all the way to two thousand. The simplest progressive betting strategy of doubling each time has made me quite a bit of money there. The dealer has to win twelve straight hands to take you out and of course it requires nearly four grand to be able to stay in that game, and of course, he occasionally does win twelve straight even against good basic strategy; but it's the best place to win online I've found. Again, I am rather new to some of this, but it seems obvious to me that since all of the on line dealers are named "software" that they are programmed to deal so randomly that card counting is an effort in futility. I assume all agree with that. I would think a warm body dealer in any casino (unless he is the house mechanic) would not be able to deal as well as these programmed software dealers, thus if the spread was wide enough a guy might have a better chance with progressive betting in a brick and mortar casino than on the internet? Where do you know of casinos (internet or real estate) that have spreads like the one I mentioned above. By the way the one giving this one dollar to two thousand dollar opportunity is Blackjack Ballroom. Any responses would be appreciated. Tx.
  • Lowest table limits I've seen were in Nevada, some advertised 1 dollar BJ, not sure what the limit would be on that, I have seen 10 dollar tables with 2000 dollar limits in Nevada as well. Most 10-15 dollar tables in San Diego have a 500.00 limit. 25.00 have a 2000.00 limit.
  • Mike: Thanks for your reply. I'm looking for this type spread, i.e., low minimums and a high limit in that same game. In the post I made earlier I have found one site on the internet that has a minimum of 1 dollar and a max of 2000. That means even with the simplest progressive betting strategy, the dealer has to win twelve times in a row before you lose. Of course that can happen; and it will happen more frequently if one is not playing good basic strategy. I have had good luck making an hourly wage starting with the one dollar bet and doubling when I lose and going back to one dollar when I win. I'd like to find a brick and mortar casino with a spread like that if anyone knows of any. It has been a rare occasion, but the internet software will eventually beat a man 12 straight times even with perfect basic strategy. I think it would be more difficult for a real live dealer to do it than programmed software. Another thing I've noticed is that when I start with say a twenty dollar bet the software works much differently. I know these programs are written to make money, so it makes me think the program is calibrated to go easy on the one and two dollar bettor; when the stakes get higher tho the game tightens up. I wish I knew how to get the true inside scoop on exactly how these top of the line software programs work. You know that a salesman trying to sell a new start up casino his software will point out the built in protection and automatic adjustments his product is designed to implement if necessary to protect the casino's investment. I'm also sure those responsible for governing and supervising the reputable casinos realize their software must be written to be profitable, so probably approve of the program making things tougher on the player as the stakes rise. What I'm saying is, from many many hours of experience playing a couple of sites on line, that you won't get the same percentage of good cards betting high dollars as you would betting one dollar bets.
    Think about it. If ANY online casino made it tough on gamblers who had just small stakes and lost them in a hurry, that casino wouldn't have much repeat business. The casino can afford to lose some small bucks, even consistently, in order to generate and maintain a good reputation. Small bets won't hurt them too much, but their software better protect them against the big money. Do you think I'm all wet?? :roll:
  • Dan... the interesting point about large bettors at the end of your post sounds as if you expect a "secondary program" to be installed. Unless the site adheres to strict Nevada Gaming Laws, BELIEVE IT!

    Can anyone point me to an internet casino that proclaims to be in compliance with Nevada State Gaming Law? Internet casinos are quite possibly interpreted as a "Video Game", and thus, secondary programming of any kind is illegal.

    For example a pay table that indicates a 97% payout has a secondary program that instructs the game to drop (keep for the house) every 25th coin.


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