Bankroll: % Effectiveness
  • I recall that bringing in 39x your avg. bet (or is it MINIMUM bet) to a casino will be good enough to sustain you through 95% of the time but no matter how much you bring it will never be 100%. I understand this, however, is there some sort of formula that can determine how effective a certain "x" is that I bring? Say for example I bring only 20x to a table min. of $50. What is the % that 20x will be good? I'm guessing around 75% eh? Would we call this "risk to ruin" or what?

    Because the last couple of times I bring $2000 for 50-75-100-125 progression, so $2k is 40x the MINIMUM bet, insuring its effectiveness for at least 95% of the time, however, it is only 26.67x $75, my *average* bet using Thomason's progression.... so which one is the one we should use to determine the effectiveness, the avg. bet or min. bet?

    Also, I was wondering about the formula to determine what % of the time a certain "x" bankroll is good for? Let's say I only bring 10x, or 15x or 20x. What is my "risk to ruin" bringing only this much, as opposed to 5% or 95% success bringing in 39x?
  • Bug: You can use the Sq. Root rule, provided that you have determined
    some base situation thru experience. For Example: You know from exp.
    that 1200 is good for 4 hrs 95% of the time based on how you play, bets
    ,etc.

    Given that information, the sq root rule says that your variance(SD) is
    proportional to the sq root of your playing time. So:

    To play one hr. based on this rule you would need 600 because the
    sq root of 4 hrs is = 2 and the sq root of 1 hour = 1. For one hr of
    play you need half your BR or 600 for the same 95% coverage.

    To play nine hrs you would need 1 and 1/2 of your BR or 1800 because
    the sq root of 9 = 3 which is greater than the sq root of 4 by 1/2. once
    again 95% coverage.

    To play 25hrs you need 3000(weekend)(sq rt =5) or 2.5 * 1200 = 3000

    If you don't like any of this, then figure an average bet times 60 will get
    you close. The risk of ruin will vary some with the individual, but for the
    most part, this will get you in the ball park...............
  • Hi Bug-
    I always bring 40 x my basic bet,example $10.00 progression, bring $400.00,end of story-and it almost always works out that I don't end up really needing that much!
    Later.
  • Thomason:

    Could you provide an opinion on this topic? Thanks.
  • I like Ray's response.
  • If you don't like any of this, then figure an average bet times 60 will get
    you close. The risk of ruin will vary some with the individual, but for the
    most part, this will get you in the ball park...............


    You're right, I dont like it, and that's mostly because I dont recall what % it's good for... I want facts and facts only.

    60x avg. bet will get me close??? Close to what... cuz that's an exorbitantly larger amount than what I *EVER* bring to the casino, and 20 $100 bills is not ez to carry around, just for me to play @ the $25-50 level!!

    Thomason, the reason why I was asking your input, is because Renzey once provided me with the % different x the avg. bet is good for, such as 39x = 95% of the time, but was wondering if there is some FORMULA to determine ANY amount of money and it's % effectiveness. I'm sure one exists.... oh well, maybe I have to wait for Renzey to read this again :(
  • BJmath.com...........table of contents.........Risk of Ruin

    Take your pick.....Little wonder that personal experience remains the best
    teacher.

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