tough three weeks
  • Had the opportunities to play quite a bit the past 3 weeks. Should have been doing something else instead. Played on the order of about 30 hours total, mostly DD with a little wonging 6d thrown in. And mostly got my head ripped off. Saw plenty of big + counts in the DD games, +10 and above quite a few times. It is sickening to be at +13, and I get a 13, dealer gets 20, I get 14, dealer gets 21, I get 15, dealer gets 20. Just over and over and over. Every now and then the gambling gods would smile, to keep me from taking my few remaining chips and going home. But over a 3 week period, I managed to end up down almost $2,000.

    During one one hour session, dealer got 11 blackjacks, I got zero. This kind of stuff just kept going on and on. BTW this was mostly spreading $5 to $40 at DD, so it takes some serious doing to lose that much that quickly... It is enough to make you question whether counting actually works or not, if you don't have full confidence in the math. :)

    Hope this weekend is kinder...

    yak...
  • It happens to each and everyone of us. Anyone who says otherwise is just plain lying. I know it can drive you crazy. The count is high but why does the dealer always get the 20 and I get the 15 and then when I finally get a couple of paints the dealer has a natural.
    You know it will turn around, you know what you are doing. My only advice would be to keep the emotions in check and do not steam.

    Good variance to you.

    ihate17
  • ihate17 said:
    It happens to each and everyone of us. Anyone who says otherwise is just plain lying. I know it can drive you crazy. The count is high but why does the dealer always get the 20 and I get the 15 and then when I finally get a couple of paints the dealer has a natural.
    You know it will turn around, you know what you are doing. My only advice would be to keep the emotions in check and do not steam.

    Good variance to you.

    ihate17


    Yep. Isn't the first time. Won't be the last either.

    But sometimes you just can't believe that "luck" can go that sour for that long. My wife watched on as I lost 10 hands in a row, each with a max bet out. And gave me that "what in the hell are you doing?" look. :)
  • stainless steel rat said:
    Yep. Isn't the first time. Won't be the last either.

    But sometimes you just can't believe that "luck" can go that sour for that long. My wife watched on as I lost 10 hands in a row, each with a max bet out. And gave me that "what in the hell are you doing?" look. :)


    What is really incredible is having ten hands in a row where the count calls for a maximum bet......seems highly unlikely in a double deck game (or was this when you were wonging six deck?.....but even that would be incredible).

    Congrats on getting out and actually playing thirty hours in three weeks....Guess I'll have to cut you some slack about your playing time now....lol.

    Yep, that was a "bad beat" at those stakes, but really not a debacle.........If you haven't had worse whuppins' than that in your BJ career, I can almost guarantee you will have........I sure have.

    Good luck this weekend.........Grifter
  • When I go on losing streaks the dealer seems to beat me by one all the time. I have 17, dealer has 18. I have 18, dealer has 19. I have 19, dealer has 20. I get a 20, dealer draws to 21 or has a natural.

    Also, I few max bet double downs can really make or break session(s).

    I lost patience with red chip play after I satisfied myself that no matter the unit my system was a winner. That being said, the worst variance I have experienced is minus 120 units (minimum bet) or 15 units max bet, and that was on a 6D game. I dropped $600 ranging $5-$40 on that game. There were almost never any positive counts and the few times they occurred I lost the large bets.

    I stick to DD now and would rather get a root canal than play 6D. So the game you are playing may be right. Penetration needs to be over 50% though. The most I have been down since sticking to DD and a little SD is 50-60 units of my minimum bet, and those losing streaks were gawd-awful with regard to luck.

    Losing 400 units of your minimum bet is pretty awful, but certainly within the statistical realm of reason. 500 units spreading 1-5 on a good DD game gets you to near zero risk of ruin. Since you are spreading 1-8, that obviously increases your risk of ruin. I have heard rules of thumb about having 100 to 150 times your max bet. I would place more stock in that than 500 times the min since that ignores your betting range. However, I think it would be reasonable to average the two figures for bankroll size.

    So you are down 400 units min and 50 units max.

    Bankroll size:

    500 units x $5 = $2500
    100 units x $40 = $4000
    150 units x $40 = $6000

    I'd be comfortable with a $2500 bankroll playing $5 games any day of the week. I started with $2500 with $25 games and have doubled that to $5000 this year. I'm going to hold on the temptation to increase my level of play because I have a small bankroll for green chip play. However, my risk tolerance is high and bankroll replenshible. But from a morale perspective, the appropriate thing to do is always be playing on winnings. It prevents the relatives and colleagues from claiming you have a gambling problem too.

    My advice is wong out of some of those DD games too (phone, bathroom, cig break, anything you can think of) and quite wasting time with red chip play. You are playing for $5-$10 max an hour!!

    Also, be sure to explain to the wife that even when the count is great you still have a 48% chance or so of losing the hand. That is why you need a nice big BANKROLL to weather the storm. Hopefully she will feel sorry for you, but that didn't work for me as my wife still rings up the large monthly credit card bill. I made her feel guilty the other day though by depositing my winnings in the checking account to pay some bills. That tore her up! Still waiting on an actual lower CC bill though, LOL.
  • Grifter said:
    What is really incredible is having ten hands in a row where the count calls for a maximum bet......seems highly unlikely in a double deck game (or was this when you were wonging six deck?.....but even that would be incredible).

    Congrats on getting out and actually playing thirty hours in three weeks....Guess I'll have to cut you some slack about your playing time now....lol.

    Yep, that was a "bad beat" at those stakes, but really not a debacle.........If you haven't had worse whuppins' than that in your BJ career, I can almost guarantee you will have........I sure have.

    Good luck this weekend.........Grifter


    actually it was heads-up DD. First two rounds were all small cards. Then we got into the cycle of 10-3 vs 10 10, with enough small cards coming out to keep the RC at 6-8.

    Only problem was, it was not just once. the 10 in a row was bad, but for 5 consecutive shuffles, I hit one of those good streaks where the count jumped. But that was all that was good about the streak. Typically there are more neutral/negative shuffles, but not it seemed this past streak. Also, on the 10 max bets, remember that is not necessarily 10 consecutive rounds. In one case, at a TC of +6, I got 10-10 vs 6. Decided it was time for decisive action. Split. Another 10. Split. got a 6. next hand got a 4. next hand got a 2. Dealer flipped over a 5. And you can guess the next card in this + count. Just like the book says. :)

    Even uglier was the negative/neutral counts where I was getting snappers with a $5 chip out.

    As far as the max bet goes, CVCX gave me the optimal ramp of TC=1, 2 units, TC=2, 4 units, TC=3, 6 units and TC=4, 8 units. So a RC of 8 early in the game, or even 2 late in the game was enough.

    As far as "whuppings," I have had a couple of long losing streaks, but nothing that bad over that short a time. Another ugly point was that another family member was playing a shoe game heads up. I'd jump in when the count hit +2. And damned if I didn't get eaten up, yet the family member did just fine in the - counts playing pure BS.

    Even funnier... when we were getting ready for bed, I whipped out my laptop and played CVBJ while waiting on my wife, to see if it would complain about my making mistakes or something. Nope. But I got whupped there as well. My wife came up with the ultimate observation... "Let's go down and play roulette. You bet $5 on red, I'll bet big on black, and we'll clean up. Somehow I think the goddess of luck was just waiting for me to try that too. :)

    Probably when I go back, they will be waiting with a "no more 21" to boot. :)
  • Knox said:
    When I go on losing streaks the dealer seems to beat me by one all the time. I have 17, dealer has 18. I have 18, dealer has 19. I have 19, dealer has 20. I get a 20, dealer draws to 21 or has a natural.

    Also, I few max bet double downs can really make or break session(s).

    I lost patience with red chip play after I satisfied myself that no matter the unit my system was a winner. That being said, the worst variance I have experienced is minus 120 units (minimum bet) or 15 units max bet, and that was on a 6D game. I dropped $600 ranging $5-$40 on that game. There were almost never any positive counts and the few times they occurred I lost the large bets.

    I stick to DD now and would rather get a root canal than play 6D. So the game you are playing may be right. Penetration needs to be over 50% though. The most I have been down since sticking to DD and a little SD is 50-60 units of my minimum bet, and those losing streaks were gawd-awful with regard to luck.


    I've avoided 6d for 3-4 years now, except for "wonging" or if I absolutely have to play a bit to get my wife involved. Otherwise, DD is the game, with very rare forays into SD if 3:2 SD can be found (it is still there, but it seems 6:5 is far more common now). In DD you can at least expect to see a decent + count reasonably often, where in shoes you can play 2-3 shoes seeing nothing, and an hour is gone at min bets with house advantage.



    Losing 400 units of your minimum bet is pretty awful, but certainly within the statistical realm of reason. 500 units spreading 1-5 on a good DD game gets you to near zero risk of ruin. Since you are spreading 1-8, that obviously increases your risk of ruin. I have heard rules of thumb about having 100 to 150 times your max bet. I would place more stock in that than 500 times the min since that ignores your betting range. However, I think it would be reasonable to average the two figures for bankroll size.

    So you are down 400 units min and 50 units max.

    Bankroll size:

    500 units x $5 = $2500
    100 units x $40 = $4000
    150 units x $40 = $6000

    I'd be comfortable with a $2500 bankroll playing $5 games any day of the week. I started with $2500 with $25 games and have doubled that to $5000 this year. I'm going to hold on the temptation to increase my level of play because I have a small bankroll for green chip play. However, my risk tolerance is high and bankroll replenshible. But from a morale perspective, the appropriate thing to do is always be playing on winnings. It prevents the relatives and colleagues from claiming you have a gambling problem too.

    My advice is wong out of some of those DD games too (phone, bathroom, cig break, anything you can think of) and quite wasting time with red chip play. You are playing for $5-$10 max an hour!!


    Actually, due to the penetration, it is closer to $20. For me, 21 is fun for the most part. On a few occasions, I've played $25 tables on the coast and in Tunica, but the variance is the killer there. To successfully play $25, you need a big bankroll to survive my last 3 weeks. Even playing $5 it was expensive.



    Also, be sure to explain to the wife that even when the count is great you still have a 48% chance or so of losing the hand. That is why you need a nice big BANKROLL to weather the storm. Hopefully she will feel sorry for you, but that didn't work for me as my wife still rings up the large monthly credit card bill. I made her feel guilty the other day though by depositing my winnings in the checking account to pay some bills. That tore her up! Still waiting on an actual lower CC bill though, LOL.



    My wife doesn't really mind the losing, because she also sees the winning and knows that overall, things are +. But streaks can be ugly. The part she hates is the very rare confrontation that occurs. Barbary Coast for example. Or one on the coast pre-Katrina that I hope won't remember me. :)
  • Just curious, were are you playing?

    One thing I believe about BJ is that you can "over-analyze" it. I enjoy the discussion on here, but I'm just not down with running a bunch of computer simulations and whatnot. I could do it but it's already been done. Counting works, end of story. Tactical strategy (cover, max comps) is where it's at, IMO.

    ;)
  • Knox said:
    Just curious, were are you playing?

    One thing I believe about BJ is that you can "over-analyze" it. I enjoy the discussion on here, but I'm just not down with running a bunch of computer simulations and whatnot. I could do it but it's already been done. Counting works, end of story. Tactical strategy (cover, max comps) is where it's at, IMO.

    ;)


    this stretch has been in Mississippi mainly. From Tunica to the coast.
  • Ah, MS is great. I'll be spending a week in September and one on October there for work, and definitely looking forward to it. I guess the Hard Rock is open now in Biloxi.

    I certainly hope I don't get a stretch like yours as I would be down 10 grand or more playing green!

    :eek:
  • Post deleted............Spam or just plain jibberish, don't know which.
  • Knox said:
    Ah, MS is great. I'll be spending a week in September and one on October there for work, and definitely looking forward to it. I guess the Hard Rock is open now in Biloxi.

    I certainly hope I don't get a stretch like yours as I would be down 10 grand or more playing green!

    :eek:


    This past weekend I managed to dig myself out of this hole by about $900 (I am still down almost $2000). This coming weekend we are going to play again but with some lousier conditions (indian casino). Probably won't do much with regard to digging out further there, as it will be more wonging and less playing unless I can find my favorite DD dealer that gives 75% and beyond penetration in the wee hours of the morning. She's probably already been scalped however. :)
  • stainless steel rat said:
    Played on the order of about 30 hours total, mostly DD with a little wonging 6d thrown in. ...........
    BTW this was mostly spreading $5 to $40 at DD, so it takes some serious doing to lose that much that quickly... It is enough to make you question whether counting actually works or not, if you don't have full confidence in the math. :)


    yak...


    In your post you said you spread a min of $5, and were playing some DD in Biloxi. Where in Biloxi did you find a $5 min DD? Was it 3:2? Double any two?
    Also, when counting I have experienced the same thing as you. Most of the time when you play heads up with the dealer and the count goes up, the dealer gets the 20 and 21 hands. If the table is crowded, and the count goes up, some other ploppy (or the dealer) gets the 21. Counting lets you know there is an advantage, There is no way of knowing who will receive the advantage!!!!
  • rdorange said:
    In your post you said you spread a min of $5, and were playing some DD in Biloxi. Where in Biloxi did you find a $5 min DD? Was it 3:2? Double any two?
    Also, when counting I have experienced the same thing as you. Most of the time when you play heads up with the dealer and the count goes up, the dealer gets the 20 and 21 hands. If the table is crowded, and the count goes up, some other ploppy (or the dealer) gets the 21. Counting lets you know there is an advantage, There is no way of knowing who will receive the advantage!!!!


    Depends. I have not played much in biloxi since Katrina, mainly shoes when I do play there. Used to find a good SD game at the Copa, with a $5 min and 3:2. Harder to find on weekends at nights of course. But during the day it used to not be that hard. Ditto for downtown Vegas. And over in Tunica. However, often when I say $5-$40 it might well be $10-$80 if that is what is available. Not many $5 tables around on weekend nights ( shoes at indian stores still have some but that's about it) But $5 tables are generally available in MS. I played DD for $5 in Pearl River a few weeks back one morning. I just asked... Not very good penetration however, so I wouldn't storm over there. But on occasion, you can find a winner by looking.

    I primarily play for fun, and $5 tables have 1/2 the variance $10 tables do, which is an important point when having fun. :) But you are not going to make a lot of money at a $5 table. My profitable sessions are generally at $25 tables... which requires the same spread and gets my wife's attention up a lot quicker. :)
  • Yes, negative fluctuations could be frustrating.
    But, you’re coming to work, you’re not gambling, and you are constantly just playing your best in the hopes that, or in the certainty, actually, that you will eventually win what you are expected to win. You don’t think about any individual result, you don’t think about any individual day, and, in fact, you don’t even have to count your money, while you’re playing or even after you’re playing. If you will play in a game where you have the advantage, the more you play, the more you will eventually win. If you play in a game where you have the disadvantage, the more you play the more you will eventually lose. There’s no way of getting around that. If there was such a thing as getting around having an advantage simply by money management, you could go to the crap table and win by money management. In other words by quitting at the right time or not quitting at the right time but you cannot do that. Money management in the way how much to bet on the next round has no effect on your edge. We can use money management systems for cover. Bankroll management is a different story all together.
  • The only thing I really remember is when I play for 10+ hours, and then count up money and chips and find that after that much playing, after paying for food, etc, I am up $5.50. 4 bits an hour in country-speak. I have since come back some more, but am not back to where I started yet.

    Sometimes good games are just too crowded, or the dealers too paranoid when inserting the shuffle card. Saw an 8-decker at an Indian casino where the dealer placed the shuffle card one full card width (not thickness, width) from the end of the pack. about 2.5" cut off. 50% penetration in an 8-deck shoe?

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!