Its seems to me that the chances of....
  • Its seems to me that the chances of hitting on 12 - 16 is worst than staying, what do you guys think?

    Most of the time i hit on 12 (only 12) i bust no questions ask.
  • bluemoonseller said:
    Its seems to me that the chances of hitting on 12 - 16 is worst than staying, what do you guys think?

    Most of the time i hit on 12 (only 12) i bust no questions ask.

    When you are dealt 12-16, you are an underdog in the hand everytime, even if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6, so you will lose more often than you win. Of course, BS tells you to stay against a dealer 4,5, or 6, because here there is a stronger change of the dealer busting than when the dealer shows any of the other 10 possible cards.
    Hundreds of millions of hands have been run through computer simulations and they always come out the same way. Hitting 12-16 (with no card counting) loses less money than staying against dealer 7,8,9,10 and Ace and hitting your 12 vs dealer 2 or 3 will also lose less money than staying. On the other hand, hitting your 13-16 vs dealer 2 or 3 will lose more money than staying.
    Some of these things are borderline calls and your play quickly changes if you are counting, but you still are an underdog in these situations. Hitting 16 vs 10 and hitting 12 vs 3, are very borderline and in a slightly positive count you would stay instead of hit.
    The math has been done over and over again for these situations even for the counter (they learn indices), the problem is the human mind zeros in on negatives and remembers them while positives are just excepted.

    For instance, you post you always bust when hitting 12. On a single hit, you will only bust 4 or 13 times and you make a 17-21 on 5 of 13 times. You would only take more than one hit if the dealer is showing 7-A and you have hit an A-4 on your first hit. It is frustrating when you do bust, but you do bust far less than 100%!

    Much of basic strategy is "how to lose less." There are so many possible card combinations and I will not go into everyone of them. Simply, your idea of never busting, never hitting 12-16 will leave you at about a 5% disadvantage to the house, while playing perfect basic strategy, on the average game, will leave you with a .5% disadvantage. So you lose 10 times faster (I may be mistaken at it is 3% or 6 times faster, but the message is the same) by playing no bust blackjack.
    Just equate it as fear of busting equals fear of winning.

  • bluemoon- Did you know that player going first gives the dealer an 8% edge? Now suppose we think of some ways to cut that house advantage down as much as possible.

    One way is proper hitting and standing. Especially 12-16. Now the dealer has only a 4.75% advantage.

    Another way is to take advantage of all your double opportunities. Now the dealer advantage is reduced to 3.25%. Proper splits gets the dealer advantage down to 2.75.

    Wow, you even get paid 3:2 on your blackjacks and this brings us down to the final average game house advantage of .5.

    If you do the math on the above you will determine that:

    3:2 blackjack is worth 2.25%
    Splits .5%
    Double down 1.25%
    Proper hit/stand 3.25
    Total 7.5% or final house advantage of .5 and likely the best game in the casino.

    Getting rid of that final .5 HA via card counting or other advantage play is your best bet if you expect to visit any casino very often.
  • And if you play hunches like not hitting 12-16 ever, you drive that house advantage _up_. They'll love you to death...
  • Lets say you happen to get dealt the dread 9-7 against a 7 even though if you hit you will bust 61% of the time it is still your best move. A lot of the time when you bust in this situation the dealer will turn over a 10 or an ace and you would have lost anyway you just got to pick which way you want to die. Lets focus on the other 40% of the time when you do make a hand if the dealer turns over a 10 or ace you proably have him beat or tied.
    Tip play the hit or stand game it is a great teaching tool how you play your hand doesn't change much with rule or deck changes.

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!