Bad Start
  • Well i had a bad swing today, hopefully it will turn my way soon but when i went to the local indian casino, i hit an extreme postive count and was putting $25-$50 out there and still lost big time. I was sure i had it in the bag when i hit the postive count but i guess not. It will eventually swing back right? ive been practicing counting for a month now so im pretty confident, but this big loss was kinda shocking.
  • If you are counting correctly,then yes things will swing back.
  • yeah i was dead on, the count was really high, it was like a TC of 3 or more and i was still losing my ass. Ive been testing it on casino verite and whenever i bet big on the high counts i do get good hands and every now and then a BJ but so does the dealer, it happens everytime, is that normal?
  • There is nothing normal or abnormal in the game of blackjack. You can win, at times, with 2 wins out of 5, but likewise, you can lose when you win 4 of 5.
  • Casino Royale said:
    yeah i was dead on, the count was really high, it was like a TC of 3 or more and i was still losing my ass. Ive been testing it on casino verite and whenever i bet big on the high counts i do get good hands and every now and then a BJ but so does the dealer, it happens everytime, is that normal?



    The problem is this: with an edge of 1% when counting, you have a _TINY_ edge in that game. And you still have the randomness of the cards to deal with. So over the long-term, you expect to end up with 1% of every bet you make as profit. But over the short-term, anything can and will happen. It is a wild ride up and down, with an ever-so-slight upward trend pulling you along. It is much like playing the stock market. You'd better be in it for the long term or you are going to lose money. If you track a stock for 20-30 years, you see it going up and down and up and down, but the good ones trend up. But you have those huge losses here and there when the market "corrects" itself. Blackjack goes just like that...
  • stainless steel rat said:
    The problem is this: with an edge of 1% when counting, you have a _TINY_ edge in that game. And you still have the randomness of the cards to deal with. So over the long-term, you expect to end up with 1% of every bet you make as profit. But over the short-term, anything can and will happen. It is a wild ride up and down, with an ever-so-slight upward trend pulling you along. It is much like playing the stock market. You'd better be in it for the long term or you are going to lose money. If you track a stock for 20-30 years, you see it going up and down and up and down, but the good ones trend up. But you have those huge losses here and there when the market "corrects" itself. Blackjack goes just like that...



    well put, thanks
  • Casino Royale said:
    well put, thanks


    Another way of thinking about it. A die with 200 faces, 99 of them heads, 101 of them tails. Every time you roll tails you win, but you are going to roll a _bunch_ of heads along the way, but tails are very slight favorites... You will make money but it is going to be a long roller-coaster ride...

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