ALEX I AM CALLING YOU OUT
  • Alex- jmpoehler went to the heart of the matter. He said it all and in a few
    words at that.

    When you remove the 8 cards from the two decks, you don't have a
    statistical advantage, you have a lock. Remove some more cards does
    not change anything because you simply increase your percent for
    another lock. In a game like BJ there is no lock, even when you have
    a statistical advantage and KY121 demonstrated that and so did I. If
    you could depend on BJ to be close to choppy , then your system
    could win a bunch of money, it is not. The exposue that your system
    has is based on the fact that you the player can not control your bet. You
    must adhere to the percentage of the hole and that is the real killer.
    Bad luck happens and stats don't match the expected, one losing streak
    can and will follow another and when that happens your bets are out of
    sight. You bet 50% of the hole, but if luck is not with you, your going to
    have monster bets in short order. Because some people have went to
    seep on us,I think this is my last post on this subject.

    Ray
  • Ray said:
    Alex- jmpoehler went to the heart of the matter. He said it all and in a few
    words at that.

    When you remove the 8 cards from the two decks, you don't have a
    statistical advantage, you have a lock. Remove some more cards does
    not change anything because you simply increase your percent for
    another lock. In a game like BJ there is no lock, even when you have
    a statistical advantage and KY121 demonstrated that and so did I. If
    you could depend on BJ to be close to choppy , then your system
    could win a bunch of money, it is not. The exposue that your system
    has is based on the fact that you the player can not control your bet. You
    must adhere to the percentage of the hole and that is the real killer.
    Bad luck happens and stats don't match the expected, one losing streak
    can and will follow another and when that happens your bets are out of
    sight. You bet 50% of the hole, but if luck is not with you, your going to
    have monster bets in short order. Because some people have went to
    seep on us,I think this is my last post on this subject.

    Ray


    That is the idea, Ray,
    You are trying to create a lock. You offset the house edge. You offset the very core of the BJ system that the house wins more hands vs. you
    I personally suspect that an estimation of 16% house edge against you will gives you a lot of territory to act upon if you bet 33% and have -$25 as your starting point.

    Well, how many times in your BJ career have you encountered an hour of play in which casino had an edge >= 16%?

    But, I have a surprise: If you estimate a house edge to be at 10% and you are betting like 25% of the hole at all times. Now, for the first 100 hands the actual house edge is at 20% against you but you are not aware of and continue and keep losing. After the first 100 hands the game balance itself and from that point on from hand 101 for the next 50 hands there is no edge the game is even. Guess what? You are not losing! You are breaking even by the end of hand 150.

    I honestly believe that this setup is a lock. You as a player can lock the game and turn off the house edge and come out ahead with financial profit.


    I am into this for years and never lost.


    Best Regards,
    Alex

    PS: You cannot waver, you cannot falter if you want to win
  • Does baccarat have this "lock" built in when you bet both ways using this?

    It seems to me that betting banker as well as player leaves only the 5% com. taken on banker wins. In reality it seems like that 5 is more like 2.5 given its only taken on wins on banker bet.
  • Grifter said:
    only because I want the true answers for myself and you.


    And your efforts are much appreciated Grif. Please keep up.

    John
  • AlexD30 wrote:
    You can't factor out "bad luck? ? That is true. But you can hedge and split the red hole and work out each half separately.

    But on the other hand, I will say this: If a system is capable to beat a game playing both ways and if can overcome a house edge of 16% than the notion of bankroll or bets become a non issue at all. There is no reason to worry about. Take the ?hole? and play it anywhere until you are out from it. Split resplit and slice it into small amounts that you will practically need a small percentage index to bet with and still come out from all of them.


    Alex

    I've been crunching some bac data and the results look pretty good, however I ran into this 44B/26P that put a glitch in things. How would you split the hole with the following results? As you can see I stopped at 96 at about half way through the shoe.

    5 5
    5 -5
    6 -11
    7.5 -18.5
    9 -27.5
    11 -38.5
    13 -52.5
    15 -67.5
    18 -85.5
    22 -107.5
    27 -134.5
    33 -167.5
    38 -129.5
    33 -96.5
    27 -69.5
    22 -47.5
    18 -19.5
    15 -34.5
    18 -52.5
    22 -74.5
    27 -47.5
    22 -25.5
    18 -43.5
    22 -65.5
    27 -92.5
    33 -125.5
    38 -87.5
    33 -120.5
    38 -82.5
    33 -115.5
    38 -153.5
    46 -107.5
    38 -145.5
    46 -191.5
    55 -246.5
    66 -312.5
    80 -232.5
    66 -298.5
    55 -353.5
    66 -419.5
    80 -499.5
    96 -595.5

    Regards,

    Win1 :?: :wink:
  • Win1 said:
    AlexD30 wrote:
    You can't factor out "bad luck? ? That is true. But you can hedge and split the red hole and work out each half separately.

    But on the other hand, I will say this: If a system is capable to beat a game playing both ways and if can overcome a house edge of 16% than the notion of bankroll or bets become a non issue at all. There is no reason to worry about. Take the ?hole? and play it anywhere until you are out from it. Split resplit and slice it into small amounts that you will practically need a small percentage index to bet with and still come out from all of them.


    Alex

    I've been crunching some bac data and the results look pretty good, however I ran into this 44B/26P that put a glitch in things. How would you split the hole with the following results? As you can see I stopped at 96 at about half way through the shoe.

    5 5
    5 -5
    6 -11
    7.5 -18.5
    9 -27.5
    11 -38.5
    13 -52.5
    15 -67.5
    18 -85.5
    22 -107.5
    27 -134.5
    33 -167.5
    38 -129.5
    33 -96.5
    27 -69.5
    22 -47.5
    18 -19.5
    15 -34.5
    18 -52.5
    22 -74.5
    27 -47.5
    22 -25.5
    18 -43.5
    22 -65.5
    27 -92.5
    33 -125.5
    38 -87.5
    33 -120.5
    38 -82.5
    33 -115.5
    38 -153.5
    46 -107.5
    38 -145.5
    46 -191.5
    55 -246.5
    66 -312.5
    80 -232.5
    66 -298.5
    55 -353.5
    66 -419.5
    80 -499.5
    96 -595.5

    Regards,

    Win1 :?: :wink:

    ===============

    :roll: Are those outcomes real bacc hands :?:

    w
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    l
    w
    w
    w
    w
    w
    l
    l
    l
    w
    w
    l
    l
    l
    l
    w
    l
    w
    l
    l
    w
    l
    l
    l
    l
    w
    w
    l
    l
    l



    w = 13 or 30.95%
    l = 29 or 69.05%
    House Edge = 38%
    :roll:


    First your betting is off, but still,
    This is a huge 38% house edge. I never been part of that in the past. Are those real bacc hands :?: Anyway, If you only insert 3 Ws anywhere the house edge drops to 24% and I’m losing $46 only with an average of $11 while betting 33% from the hole.

    But if they are real bacc hands, I believe you. Not a big deal :!: We are dealing here with a very unusual set of hands. But I will let go, take the loss of about $246 and make it back later. Start fresh the next shoe. In bacc if you play both hands you are good for about $150 per hour on average. So, I will have to play less than 2 hours in some normal circumstances to make it up.

    Now, don’t tell me that I will get this type of outcomes every other hour or so, because I don’t believe that.

    :roll:
  • AlexD30 said:
    I am into this for years and never lost.


    Alex, I'm not out to skewer you, but statements like that show me that you're absolutely full of sh*t.

    Sorry. Everyone loses on occasion. Everyone. If you've really been playing for years, you've been at casinos when it doesn't matter what you do, you just can't win. And unless you have a monster bankroll, you can't even afford to bet 20% of the hole after a bunch of losses in a row.
  • AlexD30 wrote:
    Are those outcomes real bacc hands


    Alex:

    Yes. unfortunately those are real bac outcomes. And yes this is obviously not an average type shoe. As I mentioned thes results that I'm getting look pretty good. Here's what I have so far playing both sides and insering the -246.

    1 118.5 118.5
    2 108 236.5
    3 74 310.5
    4 69.5 380
    5 70 450
    6 40 490
    7 76 566
    8 -246 320
    9 98 418

    So in these 9 shoes we have a gross profit of $418.....Pretty good.

    That's why I asked the original question of how we handle a 'bad' shoe. So if I understand you correctly, when we are in an obvious bad situation we would not continue past the 55 bet and just take the 246 loss and make it up later.
    You also said ' First , your betting is off'. Do you mean that my progression is OK and some of my calculations are off?

    Regards,

    Win1


    :wink:
  • Win1 said:
    AlexD30 wrote:
    Are those outcomes real bacc hands


    Alex:

    Yes. unfortunately those are real bac outcomes. And yes this is obviously not an average type shoe. As I mentioned thes results that I'm getting look pretty good. Here's what I have so far playing both sides and insering the -246.

    1 118.5 118.5
    2 108 236.5
    3 74 310.5
    4 69.5 380
    5 70 450
    6 40 490
    7 76 566
    8 -246 320
    9 98 418

    So in these 9 shoes we have a gross profit of $418.....Pretty good.

    That's why I asked the original question of how we handle a 'bad' shoe. So if I understand you correctly, when we are in an obvious bad situation we would not continue past the 55 bet and just take the 246 loss and make it up later.
    You also said ' First , your betting is off'. Do you mean that my progression is OK and some of my calculations are off?

    Regards,

    Win1


    :wink:

    Well, I inserted your hands in my Excell program and the crunching numbers are a little off but not a big deal. I would say this: Play all the way to 55 or even 75 top bet. If you cannot make it out from red than let it go, absorb the loss because you will make it latter.

    Even if you take a loss on one side, you will make some on the other so the total loss will be reduced. If you drop one side at 55 max bet you are -300 in red. You take 25 out from that amount ( -25 is your starting hole, Right?) You take out profit from the other side and the final loss is getting to be not so bad after all for an extremely bad situation you've been thru. That will happen very rarely in real live games. But, still could happen and you have to know how to handle when it does. That's not a big deal.
    If you take the a loss here and there in bad situations you will be making easy $100 on average per hour playing both ways. Those rare bad runs when one side gets to be over 20% are extremelly rare indeed. Most of the time you will have both sides running between +/- 12%. In all those situations you will be making money. And even when one side is running wild you will be making some $$ on the other side. Let go, take the loss, continue playing the side where the best are under control. You will see that over one weekend you will be making real nice profit.

    I would also say this also: setup a -25 starting hole. Bet 25% to 33% of that. Update the hole after every hand. When the hole gets to be -15 or better reset it again to -25. When you sit down at table use casino's tracking sheet to figure the next bet related to your "hole" Keep track the swings of each side and as long as neither side doesn't get wild keep doing what you doing. Keep collecting chips from both sides. Let one side go is gets to be out of control. You will make it back without any effort a little later down the road. Don't worry, because house edges of 25 or 30% doesn't happen every hour.
  • Buffarino said:
    [quote=AlexD30]I am into this for years and never lost.


    Alex, I'm not out to skewer you, but statements like that show me that you're absolutely full of sh*t.

    Sorry. Everyone loses on occasion. Everyone. If you've really been playing for years, you've been at casinos when it doesn't matter what you do, you just can't win. And unless you have a monster bankroll, you can't even afford to bet 20% of the hole after a bunch of losses in a row.[/quote]

    Well, What can I say? - Thanks, you are welcome too!

    I never left Vegas with less money that I come with!
    On occasions, dealing with very bad shoes in bacc I let go some and took the loss, Not a big deal, but I make it back many times over.

    But, Hey! ., If you don't believe me you don't have to use my system, just bet flat or bet using any other method like ( Walter's, Oscar, Dahl's or even card counting and expect to lose big when you bet big on positive counts while riding a losing streak) - Any positive progression is a loser no matter what you do. If you don't get winning streaks you lose. If you play a streaky game you lose too. If you lose more hands than win you lose too.

    I don't have to win more than losing. I make money in 16% or less house edge but you don't! A positive prog like Walter's will lose in a game that has 1% or more house edge. I don't! Any other system will get creamed in a house edge of 10 or 15% - I DON'T - I actually make more money in choppy game then in any other game. You don't!

    Have a nice Day
  • To All: Before I start the tests on Alex’s D’Alembert, I want to go “on record” with a couple things (especially No. 1 below) so that someone won’t be saying “I told you so”.

    1. This method will probably show positive results….Most D’Alemberts will if you have the bankroll and cajones to play through the bad streaks. The purpose of my tests will be to find out with real blackjack hands just how far this method is going to put us in the hole, what size bets we are looking at, etc., etc…..In short, to find out the “risk” involved, and determine if this method is even “playable” to the average member of this forum.

    2. I would imagine by now everyone realizes that Alex’s posts about his actual casino play are bogus, and I predict the tests will show the following regarding that issue:
    - Maximum bets will far exceed the amount Alex stated.
    - Maximum bets of will happen many more times than Alex stated.
    - The Average bet will be much higher than Alex stated.
    - The Earnings Ratio will be much lower than Alex stated.
    Maybe I am wrong on all of the above, and if so I owe Alex an apology.

    No replies are necessary……I just wanted to be “on record”.

    Regards….Grifter
  • AlexD30 said:
    [quote=Buffarino][quote=AlexD30]I am into this for years and never lost.


    Alex, I'm not out to skewer you, but statements like that show me that you're absolutely full of sh*t.

    Sorry. Everyone loses on occasion. Everyone. If you've really been playing for years, you've been at casinos when it doesn't matter what you do, you just can't win. And unless you have a monster bankroll, you can't even afford to bet 20% of the hole after a bunch of losses in a row.[/quote]

    Well, What can I say? - Thanks, you are welcome too!

    I never left Vegas with less money that I come with!
    On occasions, dealing with very bad shoes in bacc I let go some and took the loss, Not a big deal, but I make it back many times over.

    But, Hey! ., If you don't believe me you don't have to use my system, just bet flat or bet using any other method like ( Walter's, Oscar, Dahl's or even card counting and expect to lose big when you bet big on positive counts while riding a losing streak) - Any positive progression is a loser no matter what you do. If you don't get winning streaks you lose. If you play a streaky game you lose too. If you lose more hands than win you lose too.

    I don't have to win more than losing. I make money in 16% or less house edge but you don't! A positive prog like Walter's will lose in a game that has 1% or more house edge. I don't! Any other system will get creamed in a house edge of 10 or 15% - I DON'T - I actually make more money in choppy game then in any other game. You don't!

    Have a nice Day[/quote]

    Sorry, I don't buy that you've never had a losing session. Everyone has.

    If you really made that much money you'd be a professional BJ player and you'd write a book.
  • Buffarino said:
    [quote="AlexD30"][quote=Buffarino][quote=AlexD30]I am into this for years and never lost.

    Sorry, I don't buy that you've never had a losing session. Everyone has.
    If you really made that much money you'd be a professional BJ player and you'd write a book.[/quote]

    Professional BJ player?
    Why I would want to be pro BJ player when I make more $ betting with my method?
    Writing a book?
    Why I would want to write a book and divulge all my secrets?

    What I wrote on this board is the absolute truth. People can now use the concept and develop a winning strategy on their own. If they are sharp and quick they can see what direction to go. Why I would want to write a book and make $19.95 for it.

    The single and most significant fact is that my method, if applied correctly, can and will beat both the player and banker together. This is the single most powerful feature that gives people multiple opportunities.

    My method wins where Walter’s, Dahl’s, Oscar’s and all the other methods losses. You can consistently win money at casino baccarat. You can make the casino your office and play baccarat for a living by applying my betting method that I spent many years to develop and make it perfect. My systems is the only one that has been proven to beat the "72 days at the baccarat table" book while playing both ways, Player/Banker at the same time. And, of course it wins at BJ too.

    If your goal is to make money, playing BJ by card counting it's not worth it. To turn a edge of -0.50% into a 0.50% gain for player using card counting is not worth the effort. The financial gain is way to small.

    The game of BJ is a game of numbers. I don’t care how many books tells you otherwise that the only system capable to gain any advantage in this game is card counting, I would tell you that I did card counting, I won money but the amount was not worth the effort.

    As I’ve stated before, blackjack is a game of uneven numbers. We the players will always win less hands that the dealer does. We lose 52 bets vs. 48 wins That is a house edge of 4% Now to reduce that edge we must double down and get a normal rate of BJs per hour in order to come close to about -0.50%

    Now, all the books in the BJ world will tell you that by playing basic strategy you will reduce the house edge close to even. Well, that is absolutely true but they fail to tell you that by betting flat only you will never stand a chance to win any money ever. Why is that? Because even if you win one and lose one for ever but at the very end you lose only an extra bet you still are a loser by percentage.

    Blackjack book writers are for the most part losing players, or retired. They want to sell you books for $19.95 that will teach you how to win big money playing BJ. What a joke! The only way they ever can make any money in BJ is if you buy their books. And, this is not enough, most BJ books are just modified copies of the original “Beat the Dealer” by Dr. Thorp about 35 years ago when Bj was played with single deck deled to the bottom. They want you to believe that card counting is the way to go. That is not true! BJ can be beaten by simply attacking the very core of the system by creating a lock on the game that casino cannot escape from. I showed you the concept and gave you some ideas how to go about. Be smart and figure out the rest how to make money with.

    If for basic strategy to work is necessary for the player to win 48 while losing 52 why in the world is not that good enough for my system too? Why people keep arguing that I can get into a long losing streaks and “what if the house gets more than 16% edge” ..” Well, why is not that question ever asked in relation to basic strategy player? Why is that not asked in relationship with card counting? Well, card counting is also based on the premise that we will win at least 48 vs. 52 over the long run. Wow! ,. If you give me 48 winners every 100 hands I will be making huge amounts money every hour. I showed you how is done. Right?

    My system is nothing more of less than a setup against casino in which we try to lock and offset the single most powerful casino advantage that is winning more hands than us.

    I would say this: Setup the lock, then offset it and get the money!



    Best Regards,
    Alex

    PS: Power to people :!:

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