Dall's Progression
  • Good Morning. I have visited this forum several times, and just joined. I have a couple questions if someone can help me out. My regular game is poker and I am thinking about blackjack as a ‘break’ when I need one from the poker tables.

    I have played blackjack of course and I know and use basic strategy, but I think it is very boring to just sit and flat bet. A poker player friend of mine who switched from blackjack to poker suggested playing a progression, and showed me one called Dall’s. I played it for a couple hours one day and it was sure more fun than just betting ten dollars every hand. So I started reading up on progressions and all the blackjack sites say that you should never play a progression, and make it sound like you are total idiot if you do and that you will lose tons of money if you do, blah, blah, blah.

    What I don’t understand is why or how you are going to lose so much money. I understand that you can’t lower the casino’s edge, but you don’t make it worse either as I see it……Sure your average bet will go up a little bit so you would lose a little more; but it would be peanuts for someone like me who is just playing for a ‘break’ from poker, or a tourist too I suppose. What am I missing and not understanding about a progression like this Dall’s?

    Sorry for getting so long on my first post.
  • BanjoMan said:
    Good Morning. I have visited this forum several times, and just joined. I have a couple questions if someone can help me out. My regular game is poker and I am thinking about blackjack as a ‘break’ when I need one from the poker tables.

    I have played blackjack of course and I know and use basic strategy, but I think it is very boring to just sit and flat bet. A poker player friend of mine who switched from blackjack to poker suggested playing a progression, and showed me one called Dall’s. I played it for a couple hours one day and it was sure more fun than just betting ten dollars every hand. So I started reading up on progressions and all the blackjack sites say that you should never play a progression, and make it sound like you are total idiot if you do and that you will lose tons of money if you do, blah, blah, blah.

    What I don’t understand is why or how you are going to lose so much money. I understand that you can’t lower the casino’s edge, but you don’t make it worse either as I see it……Sure your average bet will go up a little bit so you would lose a little more; but it would be peanuts for someone like me who is just playing for a ‘break’ from poker, or a tourist too I suppose. What am I missing and not understanding about a progression like this Dall’s?

    Sorry for getting so long on my first post.


    Playing any progression will not lose tons of money. You will only lose what edge casino has over you . The progression creates bigger fluctuations based on your average bet. Say, the casino has 0.5% over the player. If you flat bet $10 each hand have 1000 action per hour and lose 0.5% of that or $50. If play Dahl’s progression, you will have a $15 average bet for 1500 action per hour and lose 0.5% of that or $75. Playing progression or flat bet is the same thing except the progression gives you a bigger average bet.

    Still, playing poker is better if you know what you’re doing. Putting in the middle of the table $1000 per hour in poker and if you know how to play, will give you way more money per hour in profit than blackjack.
  • The point is that no progression will take a negative game and spin it positive.
    Not all progressions are alike. Some,like the martingale are recipes for disaster.Others may be more fun than flat betting but will not result in any better results.
  • AlexD30 said:
    Playing any progression will not lose tons of money. You will only lose what edge casino has over you . The progression creates bigger fluctuations based on your average bet. Say, the casino has 0.5% over the player. If you flat bet $10 each hand have 1000 action per hour and lose 0.5% of that or $50. If play Dahl’s progression, you will have a $15 average bet for 1500 action per hour and lose 0.5% of that or $75. Playing progression or flat bet is the same thing except the progression gives you a bigger average bet.

    Still, playing poker is better if you know what you’re doing. Putting in the middle of the table $1000 per hour in poker and if you know how to play, will give you way more money per hour in profit than blackjack.


    AlexD30 - Thanks for the response, and I agree about the higher average bet; but I believe your math is flawed. In your example above the loss for the flat better would be $5, not $50.........Quite a difference, lol.

    Also, I have been told that for a $5-$10 better in LV you can expect to play about 70 hands per hour; and Dahl's progression only increases your average bet by about .20; so based on that: The flat bettor would lose $3.50 and the Dahl bettor would lose $4.20.

    Which is right back to my original question: That is only 70 cents difference, so what is so terrible about playing a progression and why do all the blackjack sites (including a couple people on this one) make it sound like only a total idiot would play one, and/or you will lose lots of money playing one??

    I totally agree with you about poker, that is why I play it. I don't know exactly what counters expect to make an hour in blackjack but I would imagine a decent/good poker player's win rate would be about triple the average counter at the same bet levels.
  • NYB said:
    The point is that no progression will take a negative game and spin it positive.
    Not all progressions are alike. Some,like the martingale are recipes for disaster.Others may be more fun than flat betting but will not result in any better results.


    NYB - Thanks for the response, but I have to respectfully disagree with you about the "point". I already said above that I realize the Dahl or other progressions do not change the house edge.

    I'm still talking about taking a break from a poker game or tournament to relax, shoot the breeze, drink a brewski, whatever; and rather than just flat betting; play a progression like Dahl's. I know I'm expected to lose a whopping 70 cents more per hour, and most of the time I will; but I just might catch a little run and walk away with $150 once in a while. IMHO, that kind of adds a little "fun" to recreational games.

    Thanks again for the response.
  • BanjoMan said:
    AlexD30 - Thanks for the response, and I agree about the higher average bet; but I believe your math is flawed. In your example above the loss for the flat better would be $5, not $50.........Quite a difference, lol.

    Well, I screw up, SORRY

    Yes, today's NL poker will give you more profit than the best blackjack games available.
    For example, In Vegas if you play one of the best games, 2D, S17, DO2, DAS with 66% penetration at Bellagio or Winn, you will make the most 1.5% on your action/hour. That is if you spread 6:1. In a $25 game you probably have an average of $50 and an action of about 4-5K/hour and that is $75/hour if you can pull this off. In blackjack to have an average of $50 you should have a bankroll of about $25,000.

    Now, if you play poker well and have a bank of 25K in a game of NL 5-10 at Bellagio, Winn, Caesars or Venetian and if your action per hour is 7K and be selective you definitely make 3 or 4 times more than BJ. Even if you wait for the nuts in poker you still get calls on your monster hands especially during the weekends when the suckers are in the game.
    Poker rewards patience. You have to fold a lot of hands in order to get the edge. You have to play position correctly in order to make money. Patience is the name of the game. If you fold enough you can support your food and rent habit. This free up lots of time for lots more folding. Before long your tether line to solvency will always be the folding. All you have to do is stop betting and get to folding. If you fold enough and put 7K action per hour in 5-10 game you will make lots and lots of money.


    I live in Vegas, and play lots of NL myself besides BJ. I can say that my poker profit is at least 4 times bigger compared with BJ. And poker fluctuation pales compared with BJ.
  • BanjoMan......First of all, welcome to the forum. Second of all, don't worry too much about what the math weinies and jammie boys say about progressions. They run sims of billions of hands and of course come up with humongous losses. But that is hardly the real world as you illustrate in your example above where the hourly difference between flat betting and Dahl's progression is 70 cents per hour.

    My advice. Go ahead and play the Dahl for your "getaway and relax" game. It's a very, very conservative progression, and you sure aren't going to go broke over that extra 70 cents per hour. As long as you don't think you going to beat the house edge with it, no problem; and you have already posted twice you know that.

    Sonny made a post last week (which I can't find) which stated it pretty clear. Paraphrased it was ".......if you understand and are willing to take the risk there is nothing wrong with playing a progression".

    So as Nike says, "Just Do It".

    Again, welcome to the forum.........Grifter
  • Grifter - Thanks for the welcome and the advice. Since making my first post I have been researching "conservative progressions" and found out the same thing that you and Sonny said about nothing wrong with them as long as you understand you don't change the casino edge.

    My own 'card sense' told me that was the case, but after posting on another board and made to feel like an idiot for even thinking about a progression I thought maybe there was something I was missing.

    Thanks again.

    p.s. I understand what a "math weinie" is, we have plenty of them in the poker world; but what is a "jammie boy"?
  • BanjoMan - A "Jammie Boy" is a pretender. He plays all, or almost all, of his blackjack on a computer; then goes on message boards and tries to pass himself off as an expert. The definition I saw years ago was, "Jammie Boy - Sits in front of his computer in his pajamas with his mouse in one hand and his joystick in the other; trying to figure out which one to play with next........and fantasizes about being a blackjack player."

    Regards......Grifter

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