KISS III QUESTION FOR FRED RENZEY
  • Hi Fred-
    Situation:I'm playing at a 6 deck shoe game where the dealer hits on a soft 17. I have either A8v6 upcard or 11vAce upcard.

    I think I should double down even though the count has not reached 19 or 20 respectively. Am I right?
    Thanks Fred-
    Prog
  • I'm not Fred, but isn't it BS to double an 11 against an Ace up when in a H17 game? In a S17, you double 11 against everything up to 10 but not an Ace.

    At least this is what my trainers have taught me...
  • In Blackjack Bluebook II it says to double down when you have 11vAce when the count is 20-but I'm thinking that if the dealer hits on a soft 17 I should double down even if the count has not reached 20, and wait until 20 is reached in a S17 game.
    prog
  • I was talking _pure_ BS in a H17 game. My BS "memory" says "double 11 against anything if the dealer has to hit a soft 17. It says to double 11 against anything but Ace if the dealer has to stand on soft 17. Clearly as the count goes up, this only gets better for the player, as the odds of making that 11 a 21 goes up with proportion of 10's in the deck...

    For this case, I would think ou should double 11 vs A period, unless the deck is negative. I don't remember the negative indices for HiLo, although I'll look this case up when I get home. For the Kiss III I have no idea since I don't use it although the principle should be the same I'd think...

    There's also a point for doubling the 8 vs 6 and 5 that I do use, double 8 vs 6 at TC = +3, and double 8 vs 5 at TC= +6. On the subject, double 9 vs 2 at +2. Of course, memory might not be perfect here, but I believe those are at least what I use, whether they are right or not will have to wait until I get home.
  • Regardless of what the basic strategy is for a given game, I would
    follow the strategy defined for the count system in question, period.
    If there was an exception, I believe Renzey would have pointed it
    out in his fudge analysis or with the usual *.
  • I think Ray may have a point-I hope Renzey can clear it up for all of us.
    Prog
  • Prog; you raise a good point. Here's what that's all about. In an S17 shoe game you should double with A/8 vs. 6 when the TRUE count is +1 or greater, and with 11 vs. Ace at +1.3 TRUE. With the KISS, these will occur at running counts between 16 and 20 depending upon how deep into the shoe you are -- but usually at around 19. Hence, the index numbers of 19 and 20 respectively.

    If the game is H17, you should double with both hands at -1 TRUE. This will occur at running counts anywhere between 6 and 18. The range is so much wider because unbalanced systems are calibrated in the direction of rising counts. At negative counts, the link between running count and true count nearly dissolves. So you have three ways to handle this dilemma.

    1) You can play it safe and just stick with the indices of 19 and 20, knowing that you'll be missing some doubles with those hands.

    2) You can choose a good "averaged" number to trigger your doubles, knowing that you'll nail more of them, but be doubling on just a few when you shouldn't. That "averaged" number would be about 11.

    3) You can make yourself aware that the running count will normally rise by two points with each deck that goes by. (i.e. you start at 9 and after one deck is dealt it should be 11. After three decks it should be 15, etc.). As long as the count is not more than two points lower than "normal", double with those hands.

    Going with #3 is probably not worth it for those two hands. That's something you want to do with 16 vs. 10 -- stand anytime the running count is the least bit higher than "normal".

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