Why does progression work?
  • :lol: :lol: HAR!!! :lol: :lol:

    Renzey, what is your response to that? He raises a very good point.
  • BUG: The uncertainty with accepting the results of trial and error are that until your trials and errors reach a very large sample size, your results may not be dependable. For example, playing basic strategy and making flat bets, you definitely have a 0.50% disadvantage. But after 100 hours of this, there's a 33% chance that you'll actually be ahead due to the "luck factor". So if you've incorporated some unknown tactic into that play and hit the 33% rather than the other 67%, you might assume it's the unknown tactic which was responsible for your success, when it may very well have not been a factor. After 500 hours, 15% of the perfect basic strategy players will still be ahead of the game. After 1000 hours it drops to about 7%, and maybe at that point you can begin to have faith in results that cannot be backed up by the math.
  • Okay, but how does playing Perfect BS relate to POSITIVE PROGRESSION BETTING, such as SLD's or WT's? Did you check out my Isle of Capri - trip report? I had some questions there that you may be able to give me some comments on...

    For example, playing basic strategy and making flat bets, you definitely have a 0.50% disadvantage. But after 100 hours of this, there's a 33% chance that you'll actually be ahead due to the "luck factor".


    What about with only 4 straight hours of play? What's the %'s then? Also, what about playing the SLD (4-loss quit point incorporated) or WT's progression? Which one is theoretically better based on the casino having a built-in 0.43% edge on 6-deck/DAS/NS/S4 that I play in Isle all the time?

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