Variance from 42% win ratio
  • I am new to this board although I have watched for awhile and read most of the posts. Through your great information and some of my own study, it seems 42% is the average win rate using perfect BJ strategy. Correct me if I am wrong but, if you are using perfect strategy, to win much more money, shouldn't you just bet much higher when the win ratio goes below about 35-38%? I have been testing a betting system that seems to work pretty well based on the following: 5,5,5,25,25,50 (I only go up as I lose) and cap my bet at 50 until my win ratio comes back in line. I have scene tables posted of average losses in a row and it seems that you almost never see one more than 12 and rarely more than about 8.

    I have done pretty well at the tables using flat betting but can play for hours and only come out with $40. Can any of you old pros lend any advice based on the above scenario? Thanks in advance.
  • No. Don't fall into the witchcraft, voodoo, etc stuff.

    Counting works because of the expected win percentage is fixed, but your probability of winning a specific hand is based on the remaining composition of the card deck not yet dealt. That is, by counting, you will know when you have a much higher probability of winning some of those 42% hands, and when you have a much higher probability of losing.

    Counting does not make you win more hands. There is no way to do that. But counting will allow you to predict when you will win, which allows you to raise your bet in that circumstance, which gives you an edge.

    Playing perfect BS is a losing game, except for a _very_ few very good SD games that actually start off with a +edge for the player (a slight + but still a +). If you play perfect BS, you are going to lose about 1/2 of one percent of the amount you bet, long-term. That is a losing proposition.

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