Been counting cards using KISS III-way cool knowing when the shoe is rich in high cards,HOWEVER,starting to wonder if the trusty 1,2,3,5 positive progression isn't just as reliable and a whole lot easier on the brain! What do you guys think? Prog
The progression is easy, but it sure took me a long time to get four in a row last week. It was WLWLWLLW... for several hours. Finally hit one good streak of five wins. Then it was back to the grind. I'm seriously thinking about learning KISS III.
Guys -- Progressions win impressively when you hit a winning streak; lose moderately when you hit a losing streak; and lose a trickle at a time when you run choppy. But after you add together all three modes in proportion to their frequency of occurance, they cancel themselves out perfectly. That cannot be gotten around! In the end, progressions yield the exact same results as flat betting. Here's a very short, but vivid example with a 1-2-3 progression. WWW = +6 WWL = 0 WLW = 0 LWW = +2 WLL = -2 LWL = -2 LLW = -1 LLL = -3 That's 8 units won and 8 units lost after all possible sequences have occured (which would all be equally likely with a 50-50 deal like a coin flip, but less than 50-50 in blackjack). Understand that it doesn't matter that this was a sample of only three bets. The same "0" result would be true with 30 bets, 300 bets or 3000 bets. Also, the same would be true with any other progression. Try your own concoction on the "three bet" chart and see.
HI FRED- FIRST-I THINK BLACKJACK BLUEBOOK III IS BY FAR THE BEST BLACKJACK BOOK I'VE EVER READ-IT CAN TAKE THE READER FROM NOVICE TO ADVANTAGE PLAYER-NOT MANY CAN DO THAT. I THINK I JUST GOT A LITTLE GUN SHY(MAYBE A BIT LAZY TOO)AFTER A BAD LOSS.THANKS FOR BRINGING ME TO MY SENSES! BEST WISHES- PROG
Blackjack bluebook III....When can we expect that one Mr. Renzey?
And since I'm addressing you, I'd like to thank you for your work on BBII, it is by far the most easy to understand and provides the most useful information. Great Job! Also, thank you for your contribution on this site, its great that we can contact you here at hitorstand.net.
FWIW...my favorite and most effective Progression is to flat bet the table minimum, and wait for 3 Losses in a row, then I increase my bet for the 4th Hand, as I expect the Dealer to Break 25% of the time (=1 out of every 4 Hands), and decrease for the 5th Hand... so at a $5 table it looks like this : 5, 5, 5, 20, 10 (= $15 profit if you Win the 4th and 5th Hands)... sometimes I bet 5, 5, 5, 25, 10 (= $20 profit if you Win the 4th and 5th Hands)...
Also, there's absolutely nothing wrong with Winning those $5 flat bets at the table minimum.
If you assume that the dealer breaks 25% of the time, and the dealer just beat you three times without breaking, it does _not_ mean that the next hand the dealer is more likely to break than usual. It just means that over the next 4 hands, the dealer is likely to break one time.
Thinking about it any other way will lead to losses...