DEALER HOLE CARD
  • Does anyone know a reasonable sounding theory for dealer hole
    card identification. I perfer one that is ethical and excludes any
    reference to "Clump Card Theory". I've got one of my own and
    would like to compare my thinking with others. Thanks,


    Ray
  • Well then, how about you share that with us? I personally dont know any foolproof way besides tipping the dealer your monthly pension and he in return secretly signals the value to you.

    But 4 real, let a rip!
  • Bug, You know very well that everthing about this game is sort of
    slippery or shall we say "MAYBE". But ok:

    First,deal out several thousand rounds for five players and dealer with all
    receiving 2 cards. If we consider the "8" to have no value, then all other
    cards(12) make a balance pair; 2,3,4,5,6,7.....9,10,J,Q,K,A. Now count
    the number of cards in each group, the results will always be: neutral,
    an excess of small cards, or an excess of large cards. If the excess is
    in small cards then I can say that there is a greater probability that the
    dealer hole card is large. Just the reverse is true if the imbalance is in
    large cards. You will be correct about 55-60% of the time in determining
    that the dealer has 2-7 or 9-A. I've been able to determine this with
    manual deals. The logic behind this results is very similar to that of
    hand composition or board counting and taken as defined up to this
    point, not very practical due to the natural dynamics that occurs in a
    typical game. The number is just too small and I need to do more work
    to see if something like 65-70% accuracy could be acquired. An increase
    in accuracy can only come from giving a certain weight to a greater
    degree of imbalance,etc. As you can see, I have a work in progress
    and need to look at the thing much closer.

    Ray
  • there has been some material written on dealer tells... works out when dealer checks his ace up or ten up...

    personally i havent been able to use any of the info effectively, but maybe someone else could.
  • Drew, Give me a quick run-down or tell me where to find the info...
  • Very good Wildbill. There is no question that personality typing
    combined with "Transactional Analysis" could have merit for some players. My mode of play simply will not allow the degree of concentration
    needed for "TELLS" play.

    Ray
  • Ray said:
    Does anyone know a reasonable sounding theory for dealer hole
    card identification. I perfer one that is ethical and excludes any
    reference to "Clump Card Theory". I've got one of my own and
    would like to compare my thinking with others. Thanks,


    Ray

    Hello. I m new in blacjack. I m expert in cards for entertainment. But I m interested in blackjack. My question is: what is the hole card play? I have hear about a secuense of a new deck. How that work? Thank you.
  • The dealer's them selfs don't know what there hole card is other than it gives them blackjack or it doesn't!!! At least 99% of the time that is the case because I have a machine that checks it. 1 percent of the time my machine doesn't work so then I hand check it myself. using a shiner or a mirror to see what the dealers whole card is cheating and you can get arrested and serve up to seven years in prison for that, you probably won't get that harsh of a penalty the first time but it will definetly get you kicked.
  • You can sometimes find a sloppy dealer who quickly flashes their hole card when flipping the first card over. Its happened to me,but its pretty rare.I think a short person in a wheelchair,with their eyes at table level, would make a very good team-mate for these type of dealers.
  • New deck sequence can work in some cases. A-K....followed by A-K or
    5-4...followed by 5-4. This is about the only time that the, so called, flow of the cards makes any sense at all. In six deck with a new pack and/or you walk into a casino and one or two dealers are standing there waiting for customers. Watch the first round or two for cards that come out before the dealer hole card and hits prior to your turn.

    Other methods have been eliminated by the casinos.

    Also, for our science people, there is good reason that Bee cards protect the coating on their cards with a patent. It eliminates environmental conditions that could produce card warping and electrostatic influences that we might be able to exploit. When Katrina was hanging over the midwest, the dealers had some trouble getting the cards out of the shoe. The moisture was in the air, but not in the cards.
  • Ray said:
    New deck sequence can work in some cases. A-K....followed by A-K or
    5-4...followed by 5-4. This is about the only time that the, so called, flow of the cards makes any sense at all. In six deck with a new pack and/or you walk into a casino and one or two dealers are standing there waiting for customers. Watch the first round or two for cards that come out before the dealer hole card and hits prior to your turn.

    Other methods have been eliminated by the casinos.

    Also, for our science people, there is good reason that Bee cards protect the coating on their cards with a patent. It eliminates environmental conditions that could produce card warping and electrostatic influences that we might be able to exploit. When Katrina was hanging over the midwest, the dealers had some trouble getting the cards out of the shoe. The moisture was in the air, but not in the cards.

    Thanks Ray for your recomendation.
  • Ray -- If I understand you right, I think what you're trying to do has already been taken into consideration by your index plays. That is, when you have 9 against a dealer's 7 up right off the top of the shoe, the dealer's chance to have a 10 in the hole is 31% (as is your chance to catch a 10) -- and you should just hit. But when the count is +3.5 true, the chance of a dealer's 10 in the hole is 34% and you should double the with your 9. Have I misunderstood?
  • Fred- No you understood and I reached the same conclusion as you in the early 80's. You are better off just playing your hands based on the count. However, back then, the Idea of knowing the dealer hole card was more than I could resist. I knew something about card stock and had the tools to take a closer look. Nothing came of that, so I tried a statistical method which produced more errors than profit in a lot of hand held trials. You could do just as well by guessing and that may apply to new deck sequence as well.
  • Ray said:
    New deck sequence can work in some cases. A-K....followed by A-K or
    5-4...followed by 5-4. This is about the only time that the, so called, flow of the cards makes any sense at all. In six deck with a new pack and/or you walk into a casino and one or two dealers are standing there waiting for customers. Watch the first round or two for cards that come out before the dealer hole card and hits prior to your turn.

    Other methods have been eliminated by the casinos.

    Also, for our science people, there is good reason that Bee cards protect the coating on their cards with a patent. It eliminates environmental conditions that could produce card warping and electrostatic influences that we might be able to exploit. When Katrina was hanging over the midwest, the dealers had some trouble getting the cards out of the shoe. The moisture was in the air, but not in the cards.

    I have read this article. Here Steve Forte tell to the man the dealer hole card: http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,731,00.html
    What do you think abuot?
  • Scarne- Very old stuff and more than likely in single deck days. The Casinos have done many things over the years to make things much harder. 6-8 decks is just one example.
  • Ray said:
    Scarne- Very old stuff and more than likely in single deck days. The Casinos have done many things over the years to make things much harder. 6-8 decks is just one example.

    Thanks Ray.

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