Progression Bank Roll
  • Using Walter's bet progression of $10, $15, $20, $25....
    What is the Bankroll necessary to stay in the game long enough to hit a winning streak?
    I am new to progressions, have used a $100 bank roll for $5 flat betting and found it was adequate to stay in the game and maybe win a little.
    What $$ is needed when you up the bet?
  • What's up Sage,

    It's not a matter of staying in the game long enough for a winning streak, it's a matter of if you win or not. You could have $1000 out using that strategy but if you dont ever win or win 1 out of 5-6 you're not ever gonna go anywhere with that progression.

    On the other hand though, I'm planning on using his strategy when I go gambling this weekend at the $10 table... using his strategy you can expect to average a $15 min bet. Hopefully using his progression I wont lose my entire bankroll in 3 hours like last time!
  • BuGhOu§eMASTER,
    With your average $15 bet, what was your total bankroll?
    I have read anywhere from 10 times to 40 times your average bet.
    Wondering how much $$ to take to be able to stay through the loss streaks.
  • Sage: I like 20 times the average bet for each hour of play... average bet will be about $15.00, so $300 per hour will usually assure that you stay in action. Doesn't mean you won't get by on less... many times I've made an initial buy-in of $200 or $300, and never had to touch the remainder of my bankroll.
  • Here's the formula:

    1.1z(100h)^.5

    Pick z to reflect your desired chance of loosing your bankroll:

    1 in 1000 use 3.09
    1 in 100 use 2.33
    1 in 20 use 1.64
    1 in 10 use 1.28

    100 assumes you play 100 hands an hour - you'll play more with a fast dealer and you're alone at the table, less if there are 6 other players.

    h is how many hours you will play.

    So if you are playing for 4 hours and you want a 1 in 100 chance of NOT loosing your bankroll, bring:

    (1.1)(2.33)[(100)(4)]^.5 = 51 units

    If you are fine loosing your bankroll once in 20 trips, bring:

    (1.1)(1.64)[(100)(4)]^.5 = 36 units

    The above assumes flat betting and a house advantage of 0%
  • Thanks Walter for the bankroll info, :D
    On my last trip to the Casino, took $300 bankroll, played $10, 15, 20, 25 progression.
    Bankroll low point was $50. After a few wins from the low point, hit it big. At the $20 bet, got two aces, split, got another ace, split, got another ace. The four aces all won, the dealer busted with 23. After 3 hours had to leave, total win was only $35. But had a great time, the progression puts some excitement into the game, beats flatting any time…………
  • Sage,

    Where I play, when you split aces, you get one more card for each ace. Period. No chance for resplits, doubles or even taking another card. Where do you play where you can reslpit aces? And can you double after split or take another card?

    Wow! Sign me up!
  • Hi Mr Ed
    I play in an Indian Casino in Arizona. I'm a little new to this, BJ has been in town less than a year.
    Anyway, I got two aces, asked the dealer if I could split, she said "yes", got another ace, asked again if I could split, she said "Yes", got another ace, At this point the table went nuts, has a guy shouting "Go get em" I asked again if I could split, she said "yes". Now I had 4 aces out, she just hit each ace once, didn't ask any more and then she played her hand and busted.
    Everyone at the table was giddy. It was lots of fun. Made the day.
  • I'm in Arizona too. Which casino was this at, Sage? I know resplitting aces is permitted here, but I've never kept track of which casinos do and which do not permit it. I've pretty much assumed they all do. Seems my resplits are always 8s rather than Aces anyway.
  • Hi Desert Dog, :wink:
    I play in Tucson, AZ. There are two Casinos,
    Desert Diamond and Casino of the Sun.
    Casino of the Sun has just opened a new wing this summer, Very Nice!
    The both have a mixture of CSM’s & ASM’s (ASM’s are 6 deck, two decks cut off)
    Both have a single $3 table, more $5 tables and a few $10 tables.
    They also both have one or two $25 tables. (which are not open all the time)
    I play the ASM, $5 tables.
    I went by each and picked up the printed rules.
    Both have the same rule about splitting aces, which is
    “Players may split any two cards of equal value. If the first hit card on a split hand is the same value as the split cards, players may re-split the hand, including ACES. Players may re-split three times for a maximum of four hands.”
  • is Walters betting progression in 21st century blackjack?

    im looking for a simple progression for my wife to learn. she's got bs down and would like to take her game up a notch. but she refuses to count. so im looking for a good progression that i can advise her on.
    she will do much better if i just give her a book and she learns it on her own vs. me trying to teach her a progression.

    im still committed to counting right now, but i will play a progression sometimes.
  • Hi, Sage. I'm in Scottsdale. Three nearest casinos are the two Casino Arizona locations along the 101 Freeway (one just CSMs, the other both CSMs and ASMs), and Fort McDowell (ASMs) on Hwy 87 just past Fountain Hills. The table limits run higher here than in Tucson. One or two $5 tables at most, a few $10's, lots of $15's, $25's, and a handful higher. Between these three, there must be 70 to 80 tables. There are a few other Phoenix-area casinos, but I haven't tried them yet.
  • Wow! I calculate that resplitting aces gives you an extra six cents per dollar bet!

    Or an extra four cents per hour per dollar bet.

    Very nice of AZ casinos!
  • Ed - Resplitting of Aces with 6 deck improves your EV by 0.07%.

    Also, resplitting of Aces is not that uncommon....THe Nugget, Horseshoe, etc. in downtown LV have it.

    Grifter
  • bill: Yes, my progressive betting system is fully explained in 21st Century Blackjack. If your wife has questions regarding the system, please E-mail me or post on this site.
  • thanks Walter.

    I will get your book soon. and its great to have access to you for your help.
  • bill, I have read a number of books on progressions. The consensus is that progressions are not better than flat betting. In fact, the Bluebook by Fred Renzey has a very understandable & simple math example of why progressions are no better than flat betting. BUT, reading the logic a different way, progressions are no worst than flat betting, and from my limited experience they are a lot more fun. When you have a 5 unit bet out and get to double, it gets your attention.
    I have tried a few progressions and like Walter’s the best. It get up to higher $$ bets faster, and is very uncomplicated to remember. If your wife tried Walter’s progression, I predict that she will be having more fun sooner than you will be by counting.
    Plus who knows, maybe Walters right and progressions do give you an edge in a close to breakeven game???
    So with nothing to lose and fun to gain, why not?? :roll:

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