Encouragement/Discouragement
  • Hi guys. I've been here a while, benefited a real lot from all the advice and theories, and have come to really respect the opinions of quite a few folks here. Having said that, I'd really appreciate it if anyone would care to comment on something for me. I've posted here before about using my combination Labby/Walter T. method. Basically using Labby cancellation ($100, $50, $50, $50) for a goal of $250, and employing Walter's Quit Points. $2000 bankroll, strict BS. I will use this method twice per session/visit for a hoped for goal of $500. Twice a week. Two different casinos.

    Anyway, I'm ready to try this real time Wednesday. So far, in months of simulations it's been on average 90% successful, or better. Now, my roundabout question is this: am I kidding myself? This works better than I think it should, and that scares the hell out of me. Logic is telling me that if it works like this in a Hoyle's simulation, it's gonna perform the same way in real time. Is that flawed thinking?

    I've gotten the wife convinced that I know what I'm doing (that's a laugh), but I'd hate to try this out and drop 2 grand the first day. I think she might have a different opinion then :lol:

    Is it reasonable to assume that the real play would have to be somewhat close to the simulation?

    I just kind of would like anyone's ideas of encouragement or discouragement. And thanks for your time. (and for all the things I've learned here).

    John
  • Hey JM,

    As long as you can take the 2K hit, I say go for it. It sounds like you've worked it through enough times to know how it "should" go.

    I've usd Hoyle for several months and have found it very much like the casino.

    A question for you. . . In Hoyle, there is no button to re-shuffle. So, when I want a new deck (or new table), I just hit the "Go To / Blackjack" and (at least in my mind) I get a brand new table. Do you do this?

    Good Luck!

    PS - If you can (I know I couldn't) take a 4K bankroll in case that first two goes away very quickly. AND. . . If the fist 2k do go quickly, use the next 2K playing $5 tables.
  • I think i am going to have to discourage you. as a married guy who is always trying to convince his wife, i understand your plight.
    Labouchere's progression, like any negative progression, will win most of the time. you are wise in capping your losses using labby. but honestly, you will probably win. you've heard it before "many paths to smaller wins, fewer paths to large losses"

    BUT, most negative progressions, and Labby especially, get into some large bets quickly. 2000 just isnt enough money to justify that large of a beginning wager. if you want to be safe, start much smaller. and if you want to be even safer, use a "safer" negative progression, like oscar's grind, if you insist on using a negative progression.

    now, as a rule i dont discourage people from trying out their systems... it can only benefit everyone else... but i would try it on a miniature scale first, and then move into the money. but like i say, you could go a very long time without losing, maybe your whole life. on teh other hand, a bad run could ruin you very quickly. but i wouldn't imagine that you actually have an advantage playing with this system... you are just hoping that you dont catch that "few paths to catastrophic losses" thing. after all, labby, in essence is just a slowed down martingale. the more room you have to breath the better off youre going to be.

    one final note. don't you find labby difficult to follow? you might as well just count cards... for me they take about teh same amount of concentration.
  • I thought almost everyone used Oscars Grind as a positive progression?

    Dylanfreak
  • i guess its sort of a combination.

    but if you are ahead, you wouldnt raise your bet. so i see it as a negative progression. you are raising your bets to get out of hole... but only after a win at the lower bet level.
  • It is a flat bet system until you are -2 units, then a positive progression.
  • eddiebo said:
    Hey JM,



    A question for you. . . In Hoyle, there is no button to re-shuffle. So, when I want a new deck (or new table), I just hit the "Go To / Blackjack" and (at least in my mind) I get a brand new table. Do you do this?

    Good Luck!


    Yup, I do this after the 4 Quit Points, or when starting a new session. Or after getting thoroughly disgusted!

    Thanks for the Good Luck, I'm sure I will need it!
  • drew said:
    I think i am going to have to discourage you.


    one final note. don't you find labby difficult to follow? you might as well just count cards... for me they take about teh same amount of concentration.


    Drew, thank you for your frankness. I am reconsidering my bankroll, or initial bet. That is a narrow margin to play with.

    As for Labby being difficult to follow, in the beginning, a few months ago, YES! Now, most of the time isn't a problem, but there are those few times when you must remember a ridiculously long string of bets, and that can be pretty tough. Sometimes I have wondered if I might as well count, but I don't think I have nerves for that. Yet.

    I'm also going to look into the Oscar's Grind. I haven't heard of this before.

    Again, thanks for your input, and everyone else who's commented on this.
    Like I said, I've come to respect you folks and your opinions.

    Well, looks like I will have a better idea of this after tomorrow. (If I don't chicken out). I will post my results, just note that my email address may be @poorhouse instead of the usual :lol:
  • I just though of a stupid question I need to know before trying my folly. Anyone know what the chip denominations are in Indian Casinos? Are they different? This would be the Foxwoods and the Mohegan in Connecticut. I mean, how are they broken down? Sounds stupid, but for the Labby it helps to know, and I don't want to get caught unawares tomorrow.

    Thanks
  • jm. i don't want you to get the idea that i am advocating the use of oscar's grind. i don't recommend it, it will lose. but some of the "numbers people" believe it is the ultimate in creating more paths to smaller wins, and few to larger losses. you will need a large bankroll and a small unit. there is some julian braun research out there on it, and a 1965 book by a name which i can't remember right now.

    grifter, obviously you know more about bj than I do, but i am going to have to respectfully disagree with you that the grind is a positive pro. i believe that it is in essence still a negative progression. yes you flat bet until you win a hand at that level and raise only after wins.... but the purpose of rasing the bets is to get you out of a hole. no true positive progressionist would only raise bets if he were down. i think its still like a martingale, it just has a different trigger for raising bets.
  • Drew...... Let's just agree that is a "hybrid".....G
  • ha. agreed.
  • Jim... there is one difference between the 2 casinos.

    Foxwoods has a $2.50 (pinky) used for odd $ bet 21's. ($25 Blackjack pays 1 green, 2 red, 1 pinky). Do not use them for betting, unless you have 2 of them (or 4,6,8,etc). It is proper to tip with them, but dont use them as a 'bet for the dealer'. Also has $1 white chips.

    Mohegan uses $1 tokens (the exact same as used in slots) and 50c pieces to pay off odd $ bets.

    Denominations are $1, $5, $25, $100, $500 in the general casino area.
    Colors are white, red, green, black, and purple respectively.

    DO NOT USE chips from the other casino!

    N&B

    ps. Mohegan has a coffee club offer mailing this is GREAT for off-hours play! (AM Mon-Th) Just got mine Mon. $5 off breakfast buffet every day till 4/30/03 Free 'coffee and' in the exclusive coffee shops in the new mall.
  • Nickels_n_Bullets, you may bet a pink chip at Foxwoods (e.g. 2 reds and a pink) - I've done it myself. And most dealers (and waitresses) are 2.5 times happier to get a pink chip vs. a white chip as a tip.

    But on a practical basis, I would recommend betting 2 pinks at a time, or cash in the odd pink chip when going home.

    Have you been to Foxwoods recently? Can you find a seat at a $10 table?
  • Nickels_n_Bullets said:
    Do not use them for betting, unless you have 2 of them (or 4,6,8,etc).


    And why not? It's still chips, isn't it? Where I play, at Isle of Capri in Lake Charles, they have all the denominations you stated except it goes above $500, $1000 (ORANGE) and $5000 (GRAY) chips... I dont think I've seen the Gray chips yet... maybe one day I'll get to actually PLAY with them!!
  • The house HATES to pay $4 for BJ on a pinky..... lol. Actually most dealers actually say not to use 'em. Its not wrong, or illegal. I ve wagered many candy cane bets. Just as a general rule, the house for some reason pays attention when these 'odd' bets come out. That's what I've experienced.

    Imagine if you put 3 pinkies on a bet for a count of +3.... that seems to be be the flavor of house paranoia.

    Hey bet what you want, I don't care. Let me know if something gets mentioned about it by the house when you play'em. I think the house has something to say.


    N&B
  • Yeah, similarly when they pay you an extra 25 cents on a BJ winning hand when you had a 2.50 chip there, hahaha.
  • Well, my plan gets pushed back a day until tomorrow (Thursday) and it will be scaled down somewhat because I agree with Drew's precautions. At least for now, for a test run.

    Nickels_n_Bullets said:

    Denominations are $1, $5, $25, $100, $500 in the general casino area.


    That threw me off a bit also. I had hoped there was a $50 chip. If I'm using a progression of $50/$25/$25/$25 it would be easier to concentrate with a $50 denomination.

    So, if I sit down and buy in for $500, is it ridiculous to ask for it in $25s? If I get $100s, will the dealer make "change" from say a $75 bet? Does any of that draw attention?

    Sorry for all the questions, but I'm pretty new at the actual physical aspect of this, and I'm pretty nervous about tomorrow. I know, gotta get over that.
  • Some dealers are @$$hole PUNKS who I just want to spit on there face but just ask them to change it up and they SHOULD... if not then get the Manager to chew'em out... they will learn eventually.

    BUNCH OF UNDERPAID PHAGS.
  • Bug:

    Be nice to dealers. If you flunk your Micro test today you may have to be one!

    Peace...007...out.
  • 'So, if I sit down and buy in for $500, is it ridiculous to ask for it in $25s? If I get $100s, will the dealer make "change" from say a $75 bet? Does any of that draw attention?'

    No, not at all... its pretty much standard.
    Yes.
    Yes, dealer will call 'change 100' when you color down from black to green.

    Betting black chips usually gets a 'black action' call from the dealer... some times the boss peeks in.

    If the boss/dealer notice progression rather than count.... things should be OK.

    N&B
  • Nickels - Who cares what they think? It's your money! I always get $500 in $25 chips, just because I'm usually doing a 25, 25, 50, 50 progression...but that's just me!

    And you're really not playing with enough coin to draw any real "heat" anyway...it's not like you went to MIT or anything!

    007...license to kill.
  • JM, (or do you prefer JM2552?) usually a dealer will ask, "How would you like that?" when you buy in. If you buy in for $500, it's fine to ask for 5 black, 3 black and 8 green, all green, or even "mix it up: black, green and red". All of the above are fine and normal. If you ask for "all red", you might get some resistance, since the dealer does not want to deplete all of his red chips and have to get a refill.

    If you bet 4 green, the dealer might give you back one black. Cynics will say this is to get you to bet more, others will say he's trying to not deplete all his green chips. It's no big deal.

    Don't be shy about asking for change. Seasoned pros do this by tossing a chip beyond the insurance box toward the dealer. The dealer will automatically give you change. Often, not a word is spoken.

    Don't worry about putting a large stack of chips in the betting box - or mixing up red and green. Dealers can handle it.

    But definately be nice to dealers - they can help you. Some will catch you when you make mistakes. And they can make playing very pleasant.

    Unless you buy in for less than $100, most people use hundred dollar bills. Just go to the bank ahead of time and change your 20's into 100's.
  • In Tunica , we bet the heck out of pink chips.

    Dylanfreak
  • Ain't this forum fun!
  • Thank you all again. Nickels, thanks for the heads up on "black action". I didn't know that might happen.

    Mr. Ed said:
    JM, (or do you prefer JM2552?) usually a dealer will ask, "How would you like that?" when you buy in.


    JM is fine, or John.
    Mr. Ed, you answered exactly what I wondered about. Really cleared me up on a lot of points. I realize this is simple stuff for a lot of folks, but I just haven't had enough actual table experience, as opposed to simulations.

    Anyway, I finally did it today! Well, sort of. An hours drive each way only left me with about one hour of play before having to pick up wife at work. I used a scaled down version of the prog. Bought in at $100 twice, playing $20, $10, $10, $10, and went home with $235 minus a $5 toke. OK, not a lotta cash, but my purpose was to just try a low-cost "trial run", and get used to to the actual flow of things. I'm comfortable with the progression, and will try it next week on a larger scale.

    Only made one stupid (real stupid) BS mistake. For some reason I hit a 13 against a 5! Of course I know better than that, but I think I just had a nervous momement of brain freeze. As soon as I asked for a hit, I knew I screwed up. Dealer even asked me if I wanted to do that. Anyway, one mistake, that I know of.

    Speaking of dealers, I caught a great one. Guy was pleasant, informative, not too talky, and actually helped a young college kid at the table pretty frequently.

    As first experiences go (with a progression in real time), I'm pretty happy with this, and will be back next week.

    Thanks again for all your input, folks!
  • jm, That's where it pays to tip and/or be nice to the dealers. They will pause or make eye contact when you have a brain fart. Of course, sometimes they will do this when you make a correct Basic Strategy play.
  • Have you been to Foxwoods recently? Can you find a seat at a $10 table?

    2 months ago, on a Wed. AM I went to MS: yes there are $10 tables especially Span 21, and Continuous Shuffle Machines. Blacjack Bonanza $6 min. for those who feel lucky.

    N&B

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