** Anyone having any success ?
  • Is anyone having any success w/ their progressions and if so what's your progression?
  • LastVoice said:
    Is anyone having any success w/ their progressions and if so what's your progression?


    Not exactly a thundering stampede to answer this. What is that saying?
  • Because he hasn't got on the new board I'll have to talk for SLD, he stands by very strongly on his modified Dahl progression and adamently defends his win rate. Blackjack is a long run game but right now on the progression I have been using I have had more than the 63% overall win vs lose trip too, but, and this is a big but, the times I have lost have been bigger money loser days than my wins, so over all a % doesn't mean much unless you just like to walk out of the casino a winner, money talks and if you are talking about money I'm about 25 units ahead over my last 6 days at the casino which at the level I play is not much for the high rollers and only just above twice my average buy in so I'm still very vulnerable to a bad day. I hope I can recognize that bad day while I'm having it and use discipline to quit early. But for me the point is I'm competing, and using a progression I have a chance to really have a good day over just slowly getting a few chips over my buy in by flat betting. What I'm saying basicly is that I agree with both Mr Renzey AND Mr Thomason, you are not going to get anywhere in BJ flat betting, you have to progress to the next levels, the first is golden rule is Discipline, then get to the tables and use that with a well thought out progression. Than play enough where you understand the 'card game and odds' element enough to start playing indices such as the Mag 7 hands, hand composition plays, and looking for opportunities to buy into other hands. and then if your are good enough get to counting. If you can't ever get to that level you should still be a strong player no matter what, strong enough to enjoy yourself at the table and in my opinion, the progression is a major step for the average person who wants to try casino blackjack to get to point where he can finally really have the possibility of an enjoyable BJ experiance.
  • let me be the first to stampede. i'm having quite excellent success with my progression. 3x; 1x; 1.6x; 2x; 3x; 5x; 7x; 4x until a loss. while definitely a high risk proposition, this progression allows me (barring an unusual triple split with all losers or something of that sort) to lock in a series win -- if i win the first bet (3x). in cases, where i receive a double down win, split win, or blackjack win, i advance as deep into the progression as my winnings allow -- but my winning bet at each level has to be satisfied before i advance through that level. i recently chopped off the top of the progression (it went to 10x after 7x) as i found empirically that i was losing more money than i was comfortable with on that size bet. i have strict stop limits at 40% and at 4 hands lost in a row. however, in spite of some success, i have been learning from the pro's here and am practicing counting -- will soon give the hi-lo system a try at the tables. in spite of my good fortune to date with this progression, renzey has convinced me with his ruthless logic that progression betting will eventually catch up to me, stampeding or not. i thought i was very smart when i came up with this progression, and it has served me very well to date -- but i've begun to wonder if perhaps i'm really just another sucker on a lucky streak. experientially, i'm with walter -- streaks do happen and i've relied on this fact in my play -- but really 21st century blackjack (re-reading it now) doesn't convince me (especially with the small sample size used) that progression betting is a long-term winner. so ends the stampede.
  • Zebra, how long have you been playing with that progression and how successful are you? What's the win % for you??

    Also, did you mean 1.5% instead of 1.6%?

    The problem I see with your progression is losing the initial 3x bet CONSISTENTLY. Even if you stop after 4 times that's already 12x that you lossed!!! Seems good, *IF* of course you can eliminate that chance of losing 4 IN A ROW, right from the get-go, you know what im saying?
  • Great success at casino last night. I was winning slowly, using Dahl, which mostly meant flat betting. My wife sat down beside me and promptly lost $50, so she decided to switch to video poker. Two minutes later I get a call from her on my cell phone. Stepped away from the table to take her call: "I just won a royal flush!" I walked over to the machine she was at and sure enough, 10-J-Q-K-A of hearts. Returned to the table and everyone noticed my suddenly more aggressive betting style. Didn't help though. Ended up only 10% over my buy-in. Still, since joining this board, of my 13 sessions (or multi-session days in Vegas) at the tables, I have 11 wins and 2 losses (but boy were those loss days bad) :D
  • Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!

    What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.
  • Congats to the wife, Dawg.....I won't dare tell mine. She sits here at home and gets the RF's, but has NEVER hit one in casino play.
  • i am up 252 units since 7/3 -- coming up ahead 11 out of 15 sessions -- playing down to my loss limit three times -- and through it (way through it) once -- 7/3 is when i started tracking this system exclusively -- i used it some before that but not much and i mixed my systems so i can't absolutely say anything prior to 7/3. of course, i can't get away from the 4 hand loser -- but as i say i have had good luck so far. i use a $25 unit so i use a multiple of 1.6 ($40) rather than a multiple of 1.5 ($37.50) for convenience.
  • I see... $37.50 is alright if they have a $2.50 chip... your casino doesn't have one of those? That's not good.

    Buffarino, Dahl's Progression is using this betting scheme: 1x 1x 1.5x 1.5x 2x 2x 2.5x 2.5x 3x 3x 3.5x 3.5x moving up 1 unit on a win, going back to the beginning on a loss, skipping 2 on a DOUBLE-WIN or a SPLIT-WIN (if more then 1 double/split use NET result of that hand to determine how much to move), and skipping 1 on a BJ. If you ever get to the top, stay at that bet until you lose. You're bound to.

    DD, nice job!! How much was her jackpot?!?!??!
  • Thanks, Bug.

    What is the advantage of doing a 1x, 1x, 1.5x, 1.5x, etc. type progression over a 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 2.5x (or even a 1x, 2x, etc.)? In other words, does the slower progression help somewhat (or do they just slow the losses)? I'd think a more aggressive progression would yield better results since you're a lot more likely to hit a 3-4 hand winning streak than you are to hit a 7-8 hand streak.

    I know the stats say progressions are long-term losers, but they intrigue me for some reason.
  • I've been using the four step positive progression explained in my book for about five years (over 100,000 hands of play) and am well ahead of the casino. Basically, it's a 2/3/4/5/5/5 etc. positive progression with a 4 loss quit point.
  • Walter Thomason said:
    I've been using the four step positive progression explained in my book for about five years (over 100,000 hands of play) and am well ahead of the casino. Basically, it's a 2/3/4/5/5/5 etc. positive progression with a 4 loss quit point.


    That's 4 consecutive losses, correct? If that happens, do you quit altogether or just find a new table?
  • Buffarino - I'm here and evidently Walt isn't, but I remember this from his book.......He "quits the shoe" after 4 straight net losses. Then either wait for a new shoe (if the PB will let you) or go to a new table.

    Grif'
  • Thanks, Grifter. Any idea how that translates at a table with a CSM?
  • Can someone explain the 2-3-4-5-5-5 that Walter mentioned? Do the #'s represent the units and follow the same increase or decrease as Dahl's? Or is this betting progression much more complicated then this? Either way I'd like to try it out.
  • Buffarino said:
    Thanks, Grifter. Any idea how that translates at a table with a CSM?


    Just a wild guess, here, but Grifter may not have played at a whole lot of CSMs just yet. :) :wink: Buffarino, I don't believe Walt specifically addresses that in his book. Obviously, there's no shoe to be finished with a CSM. And if the rationale for stopping play is the rest of the shoe is looking bad, then you can't say that with a CSM. But if the rationale for stopping play is "for whatever reason, I am in a losing streak", then I guess you'd stop and move to another table with a friendlier CSM.
  • Bug: Yes, the "2/3/4.." are units bet. Start with two units, increase 1 unit after a net win, drop back to 2 units after a net loss, pushes or Blackjacks don't effect the bet level, stop the progression at the end of a shoe.
    DD: I don't recommend my system for CSM play. In fact, I don't recommend ANY system for CSMs... don't play them!
  • Walter, do doubles and splits affect it? Or nothing does... just increase a max of 1 unit on each win? What's the name of it? Also, if I'm not mistakened it's: 2-3-4-5-5-5 which is your betting scheme right? So... if you keep winning you'd just remain on 5 until you lose? Would you ever drop back down to 2 units to consolidate your winnings instead of losing a big 5 units or...?
  • Is a "net win" the same as a plain old ordinary "win"?
  • Hah, how clever, Ted. You posted exactly the same time I did so I was like "what? where'd my post go?!"...

    Anyway, a "net win" is the positive result after a split or a double, or even >1 split or double. For example: I win split 1 hand and lose split 2 hand, the result would be a PUSH because the win and loss cancel out. Lets look at another example: On one of my splits I had a DD (double down) opportunity and I won that (winning THAT split as well), but lost my other split. Well, what we have are 2 wins (one from the Double & Split) and 1 loss. 2 beats 1 so the NET RESULT is a win. You can also look at it on the perspective of mathematics. 2/3 = 67% = a majority or >50% so the result is positive. It must yield >50% and not = 50% because 50% would be the % of a PUSH, since it's a draw or tie with the dealer and that would not be enough to warrant an increase in bet size.

    There are much tougher examples to determine the net win, though. How about we look at this scenario:

    I got dealt three 8's (assuming you're a flawless BS player we'd have 3 split-hands of 8's), than the 2nd card on those three 8's were: 3, 3, and 10 giving me 2 immediate DD opportunities since the dealer's top is 2. So with you doubling down on both of those 11's and having 3 splits, you already have 5x the units you began with (1 x 5 = 5). As a result, you end up WINNING 2, Losing 1, and Pushing 2 (dont worry if these aren't realistic results just follow the example) so what would be the net result?
    Well, following my above example, we'd have: 2 (2 wins) + 0 (1 loss) + 1 (2 pushes * .5) for 3/5 (count pushes as draws just like in CHESS for 1/2 point). Well, 3/5 = 60% and 60% is >50% so we'd have a NET win after all of that.

    I learned finding these net wins the hardway when I'm actually in the casino cuz these seemingly simplistic calculations NOW as opposed to the complicated determination at the actual casino can mess you up but this should more than clear up your net win queries.
  • Bug and Ted: A "net" win is just that... any profit from a round of play. I never back off on my progression at the top level, because the whole object of the progression is to reach a bet level that is two and one-half times the amount of the initial bet... this is when serious money can be made rapidly. Example, last Tuesday night I was down $900 after three and one-half hours of play, finally hit a strong shoe (10 consecutive wins at one point), and pick up $1400 by the end of the shoe.... Not usually this dramatic a turnaround, but it does happen often. You need long strings of consecutive wins to offset the W/L/W/L sequences, and you won't benefit from them if you cut back on the max bet.
    Remember, you don't always eventually lose the max bet because you stop the progression at the end of a shoe.
    Hope this helps...
  • Yeah, I knew what it was, I was explaining it to Ted.

    What about doubles and splits? I was wondering if you skip any steps for those.

    Also, is there a reason it stops @ 5 units and nothing higher? What is the name of this positive progression?
  • Walter Thomason said:

    DD: I don't recommend my system for CSM play. In fact, I don't recommend ANY system for CSMs... don't play them!


    Walter, I think we're agreed there's no point to any system with CSM's because if clumping underlies the streaks needed to feed progressions, they're less likely to occur with CSMs. But I gotta tell you, I have now won at 12 out of my last 14 sessions (or multi-session days when in Vegas). The two losing days occurred in Vegas at regular 6 deck shoes, as well as three winning days. Of the nine sessions played at Casino Arizona, which only has CSMs, all nine were winners, including yesterday, where my buy-in of 40 units grew to 80 in three quarters of an hour. At which point I announced "My work here is done." With all the griping I've done here in the past about bad cards going right back in, the dealer pointed out yesterday when a lot of aces and tens came out: "Remember guys, those good cards go right back in, too."

    There's a casino called Fort McDowell that has regular shoes as well as CSM's, a little farther away, but they keep the table limits higher. Often $15 is the lowest you'll find there, with the only open seats at the $25s. I lost big there one night a few months back. At both CSMs and shoes.
  • Buffarino said:
    Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!
    What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.


    Yes, she was playing max coins. The bet of 5 coins paid back 4000 of them. :D
    Definitely get Walter's and Fred's books. I think someone's answered your question about the Dahl progression.
  • Bug: Unlike Dahl's system, I don't skip levels after winning a double-down or split. I stop at 5 units because this "medium aggressive" style fits my temperment... not boring and not heart-breaking when you lose the top bet. It's been suggested that the system be called the "Thomason Four-Step Positive Progression" but this seems rather pretentious.
  • Desert Dog said:
    [quote=Buffarino]Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!
    What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.


    Yes, she was playing max coins. The bet of 5 coins paid back 4000 of them. :D
    Definitely get Walter's and Fred's books. I think someone's answered your question about the Dahl progression.[/quote]

    Very nice, indeed. Yes, the question has been answered.

    Now I've got another. I'm heading to LV in a couple weeks. Do you know if any of the main strip casinos offer $10 tables with regular 6 deck shoes? I'd love to avoid the CSM's if I can, but I also don't want to have to go off the strip to do it. That's a big part of the Vegas experience for me.
  • Walter Thomason said:
    Bug: Unlike Dahl's system, I don't skip levels after winning a double-down or split. I stop at 5 units because this "medium aggressive" style fits my temperment... not boring and not heart-breaking when you lose the top bet. It's been suggested that the system be called the "Thomason Four-Step Positive Progression" but this seems rather pretentious.


    I like your style, Walter. I feel the same way. I'm going to give your progression a shot in a couple weeks. Wish me luck!
  • Buffarino said:

    Very nice, indeed. Yes, the question has been answered.

    Now I've got another. I'm heading to LV in a couple weeks. Do you know if any of the main strip casinos offer $10 tables with regular 6 deck shoes? I'd love to avoid the CSM's if I can, but I also don't want to have to go off the strip to do it. That's a big part of the Vegas experience for me.


    You won't need to go off the strip. Most of the tables on the strip are still hand shuffled six deck shoes and $10 minimums are quite common. :) My favorite is Paris. Watch out for 8 decks at Bally's. Be sure to catch the fountain show at Bellagio, they do it on the hour and half hour, best at night when they're illuminated. It's still going to be very hot in Vegas two weeks from now (no issue for me where I'm from) but at 112 degrees, you may not want to wander up and down the strip trying different casinos. I've played at Caesar's, Bally's, Flamingo, Paris, New York New York, Luxor, and MGM. (Also Barbary Coast when I needed a $5 table to try an aggressive progression.) I'll wish you luck as the date draws closer. In the meantime, recite every basic strategy combination every day as you're driving to and from work, and then work on the seven exceptional hands (the Mag 7) and the two exceptions based on your own hand composition.
  • Thanks, DD. I go every year at this time, so I know better than to prowl the Strip on foot during the day. 8) I've just never given the CSM's much thought before, so I didn't know if anyone on the strip had 6 deck games still or not. I appreciate the reply.

    My favorite is Mirage. I also like Paris, Treasure Island, Venetian and Bellagio. Now I'm sure you can see why I have problems finding $10 tables... :D
  • I was just in Vegas two weeks ago, Buffarino. Like I said, CSM's have made very few encroachments on the strip. They tend to show up if a place expands, or in newly opened casinos.
  • Thanks Mr. Thomason. I'll certainly give yours a try tomorrow night and next weekend when I'm trying to win back my money from last time and not to mention Vegas since I got BJraped alive... :roll:

    The National Chess Open this year was held at the Riviera, same place that BJassraped me hand in and out it seemed... dealers would make 20-21 consecutively on hard hands as bad as 15 and 16!!!!!!!!!!! I was so pissed, but what could I do? I was hoping Vegas coulda brought me some mad luck, you know, it being my first time to ever experience the GAMBLING part of that city but shiet, it was all but good luck for me... oh well. So yeah, I wouldn't recommend Riviera based on MY personal experience!!!

    I did have fun though going across the street to SLOTS-A-FUN with the $3 min. tables... and those little side-bet wheels are a trip too... but my entire trip I probably saw ~50 BJ's in which they got a chance to spin the wheel and not a SINGLE time did it ever land on the $1000 space........... hmmmmmmmmmmmm, I wonder whY!??!?! :? :?
  • work on the seven exceptional hands (the Mag 7) and the two exceptions based on your own hand composition.


    would some one please explain to a novice about the (Mag 7) and exceptions.[/quote]
  • sched60, these are 'reading the table plays' as the 'old schoolers' put it, but Renzey describes them in his book (see the book lists on the main page). Basicly when to alter basic strtegy based on what cards you are dealt and are on the table in other visable hands. I recommend the book as an excellent first blackjack book, but no progressions will be found. Multiple posters here will gladly explain thier progressions but you need to give a lot of thought to what progression fits your playing style. I could list these indices but I really think getting the book will be much more valuble as he takes you through thier use in a systematic way. The thing that was most helpful to me was seeing how statisticly 'iffy' many BS moves are when compared to the alternative, that is how standing on a 16 against a dealer 10 is not that big an error, but one which will get you scorn at the table from a person who plays strict BS. One of Renzeys hand composition plays is to stand if your 16 has 5s or 4s in it because the some of the cards that would 'make' your 16 into a better hand are not available anymore, and now the odds have shifted to making a stand the better overall play.
  • Also a good way to quit a shoe (at least for once a session) is to ask for a marker for a "bathroom" trip.
  • Desert Dog:

    It sounds like you are doing well against the CSM's in Arizona. Are you using a progression based on a running count? I have been trying that, and also trying to use table selection (looking for friendlier machines that are paying out to all at table). So far, I've had mixed results, ahead about 20 units after 12 hours & 5 trips - with very good trips + 50 units, to bad trips, - 30 units. The casino has just opened, is run by the local indian tribe, and has King machines on all BJ tables.

    Any ideas from the members would be appreciated. I know that a drive over the mountains to a countable game is the first option, but having the casino 15 minutes away is tempting & convenient.

    thanks,

    CD
  • For the sake of ther almighty dollar, drive over the mountains to a real game. Show the CSM casinos that you won't play a "neutralized" game of blackjack. If you do, the machines will eventually take over -- then you can put blackjack into the same class with craps.
  • Renzey said:
    For the sake of ther almighty dollar, drive over the mountains to a real game. Show the CSM casinos that you won't play a "neutralized" game of blackjack. If you do, the machines will eventually take over -- then you can put blackjack into the same class with craps.


    If you feel that way about the CSM's, how do you feel about the recent surge in 'Dealer must hit soft 17' games everywhere?
  • CD said:
    Desert Dog:

    It sounds like you are doing well against the CSM's in Arizona. Are you using a progression based on a running count? I have been trying that, and also trying to use table selection (looking for friendlier machines that are paying out to all at table). So far, I've had mixed results, ahead about 20 units after 12 hours & 5 trips - with very good trips + 50 units, to bad trips, - 30 units. The casino has just opened, is run by the local indian tribe, and has King machines on all BJ tables.

    Any ideas from the members would be appreciated. I know that a drive over the mountains to a countable game is the first option, but having the casino 15 minutes away is tempting & convenient.

    thanks,

    CD


    I'm sure you don't mean a progression based on a running count at a CSM because there can't be a running count there. Yeah, I'd say I've done okay at CSMs but it would only be due to luck. I usually also just flat bet at them now, based on an observation by Walter Thomason. If I'm at a casino that has both CSM's and shoes, I'll play awhile at a CSM just to get psyched up to move over to a shoe and start counting. It also makes it look like I don't care what kind of device is at the table. The thing about CSM's is their house advantage is slightly more favorable to the player than a six deck shoe, leaving aside counting (obviously). If I want a night out where I can have a couple of drinks and kick back, and not care if I lose a little money, I'll play at a CSM. If I want to use my wits and have fun that way, minimum limit CSM's only for a little while, then on to the shoes, either with backcounting or straight in.
  • DD & others-

    thanks for the reply. I don't claim to be a statistician/mathmetician or BJ expert, but I have been reading a lot of the BJ literature & posts on the various BJ Boards & have some questions. Regarding the possibility of using a running count on CSM's - if we assume that the count will average "0" over a million hands, why can't we assume that if we have a very large positive or negative "running count" - say +/- 15 (counting started at the point that we enter the game) that we will start to see a trend in the other direction, and change our betting to take advantage of this expected event? In fact, when keeping a count, and seeing it get very positive + 13 or so, suddenly you get a whole glut of large cards coming out to even the count. Then the "running count" may stay in the range of +/- 5 or so, then take off into a high positive/negative range. It seems that there should be some probabilities where at any point, you can expect the trend to reverse direction (towards 0) a certain percentage of the time. I have also been trying to track clusters of cards going into the box together - and watching to see how many hands it takes to have them come back. Some have obviously reappeared - all three cards, in same order, within a spread of 5 cards, at two decks later (5 rounds of 7 spots dealt) while other groups have just disappeared (got stuck or split up) and I didn't see them for 10+ rounds. I will continue investigating - I think that the quickest way to move the machines out is to find a way to get an edge over them and spread the word.

    Good Luck to all.

    CD
  • Someone ought to buy a CSM and take it apart to see what's going on inside. Like is there a pattern to where it places the 20 or so cards that have just been reloaded?

    I think the whole basis of counting is that the cards that are sitting in the discard tray are no longer available. If that shallow stack in the discard tray is dumped back into the CSM after every hand, they're available again.

    Probably the best way to beat the CSM's is to boycott them. The more remote casino in my area, Fort McDowell, reverted to mostly shoe tables to draw players from the more convenient locations. This in turn put pressure on one of the two more conveniently located ones to introduce shoes at about 25% of its tables and I'm guessing we'll see an increase in that.
  • I am glad to see that many progression players do not like CSMs, because counters can't get any advantage off of them. Now, if we could get all the superstitious ploppies to stop playing them, they might go away.

    Let's start a rumor:

    "CSMs are bad luck"

    "The House controls the flow of the cards in the CSM"

    "The machine shuffles away any advantage you might have"

    "The machine holds back good cards"

    "They don't let a player make a good cut"

    Let me know which one you like the most, and feel free to add more!
  • Mr. Ed- They are all good, but how about this :
    We find as full of a table as we can with a CSM and sit down to play. We say, loud enough for all to hear, "you know you can't beat these dang card machines, they always give the house more 20"s and BJ's than they do the players". Now we try and use the selective memory thing. As soon as the dealer gets a BJ or a 20 you say "See what I mean" and leave the table. By the way, this does not work well, after winning 19 out of 20 hands.... :wink:
  • Brilliant, Midnite. I like the part about leaving in disgust as soon as the dealer gets a 20 or 21. Should happen once every 7 hands, but there's a 50% chance it will happen by the 5th hand.

    If you count multiple card 20's and 21's, it'll happen about every 3 hands, but there's 50% it will happen after just two hands!

    Imagine sitting down, playing two hands, and saying, "See?!? I told you so!" WHAM! That'll get selective memory going real quick!
  • Now what are your plans for the 6:5 blackjack games, something I see as more ominous than the CSMs, at least the house advantage is less than .5% on a lot of CSM games.
  • Spread the word that 6:5 costs you 15 bucks on a $50 bet. Why should I GIVE $15 to the casino for nothing! It's $30 on a black chip bet - that's REAL money.

    (NEVER work out the math for a red chip bet. Most gamblers hate it when those $2.50 winnings get in the way. One white chip is much cleaner - and $1.50 difference is nothing - and it's easier to tip a waitress with a white chip, anyway)

    (NEVER mention that a BJ only happens about 1:21; that translates into "never" when someone is trying to justify 6:5)

    3:2 payoffs are the player's RIGHT!

    6:5 is for SUCKERS - not SMART players like US!

    They're just begging for tips when those white chips pile up.

    then of course...

    6:5 is bad luck...

    They get more 20s and BJs at 6:5 tables!

    Then of course, if you do happen to find an intelligent BJ player, do explain the truth: The cost is (about) 0.30/21=1.4%, which is HUGE compared to the 0.5% advantage the casino usually has.
  • midnite said:
    Mr. Ed- They are all good, but how about this :
    We find as full of a table as we can with a CSM and sit down to play. We say, loud enough for all to hear, "you know you can't beat these dang card machines, they always give the house more 20"s and BJ's than they do the players". Now we try and use the selective memory thing. As soon as the dealer gets a BJ or a 20 you say "See what I mean" and leave the table. By the way, this does not work well, after winning 19 out of 20 hands.... :wink:


    About CSM’s -- CSM's have a "ramp" or buffer of cards waiting to be dealt that aren't part of the ongoing churn inside. I’m unsure of exact size but my best guess on a 5 deck CSM is the ramp holds 14 cards (because there are 19 "shelves" inside a CSM, and one shelf at a time gets placed in the ramp. 260/19 = 13.684.) I had once been told by a dealer that the ramp was 25 cards, but I have my doubts.

    If you've just played a round that would raise the count from zero to 10 or 15 (unusual but not all that rare), that means a true count for that next hand of +2 or +3 in a five deck CSM. You’re guaranteed that the next fourteen cards out won’t have any from that super-low round, and there’s little chance of more than one of those cards from that super-low round making it into the next fourteen if the ramp has to refill during the deal of the next round.

    At a CSM we all know that keeping a running count from one round to the next makes no sense whatsoever, but round by individual round I now think it's a good idea to watch for extremely light or heavy boards, and then bet and play (or even sit out) the next hand accordingly.

    Does anyone see any flaws in this thinking?
  • Don't waste your time. It would be rare indeed to have a high enough running count to make a difference in the true count after just one round. And then to only have this advantage for one more round is just not effective.

    If you're willing to backcount 9 out of 10 (maybe 19 out of 20) rounds, jump in for one round and then get out again, you might be able to shift your advantage past zero. But the guy working at McDonalds will make several hundred times more than you per hour. (I'm talking the entry-level guy, not the owner).

    You will make a LOT more money by looking for dropped chips on the floor.

    (I'm sure my numbers are off, but whether you're making 1/100th or 1/1,000,000,000th of a unit per hour, it's still not a whole lot more than zero.)

    But on the other hand, if you're not counting and you notice that 15 small cards and zero large cards come out in the first round, by all means increase your bet for the last round. Or if vice, versa, take that moment to flirt with the waitress and skip a bet.

    If you post your question on advantageplayer.com, someone will be in a position to give you a quantifiable answer

    Oh, and by the way, I've heard that the dealter gets more 20's and BJs with a CSM!!! :wink:
  • Sorry Desert Dog, my post was a little rude, so I'll try again:

    The short answer is "Yes" you can use advantage play with a CSM, using the method you describe. BUT, the advantage will be very small indeed, and opportunities will be rare.

    I would suggest you avoid CSMs and use your counting skills with a shoe or pitch game. You will have much more success.

    Good luck.


    p.s. I've also heard that CSMs give the dealer more 20s and BJs! :wink:
  • Mr. Ed said:
    Sorry Desert Dog, my post was a little rude, so I'll try again:

    The short answer is "Yes" you can use advantage play with a CSM, using the method you describe. BUT, the advantage will be very small indeed, and opportunities will be rare.

    I would suggest you avoid CSMs and use your counting skills with a shoe or pitch game. You will have much more success.

    Good luck.


    p.s. I've also heard that CSMs give the dealer more 20s and BJs! :wink:


    This idea occurred to me at a six-deck shoe where I was keeping a running count using Fred's KISS II system. The count was hovering around 18 (neutral) then in one round shot up to 33. In hi-lo that jump of 15 assuming a start from zero means a true count of +3. I then bet 3 X table minimum rather than the 10 Fred recommends. It was a $15 minimum and no way was I going from 3 reds to 6 greens, as much from lack of nerve as fear of heat. I wish I had. The next two rounds were very favorable for the players. It got me thinking afterwards that a round of cards that extreme could also affect the next hand in a CSM, because of the ramp. But I do agree that this is still very slim, (a) because rounds like that don't happen that often and (b) the advantage will last for only one hand.

    I remember playing at a CSM a few months back where a player who acted like she knew everything, after a round where everybody got hosed by low cards, said "Okay, everybody, back down to minimum bets until this passes!"

    You know, I've heard that too -- that CSM's give dealers more 20's and BJs! It also gives dealers more 5's then 10's after a 6 upcard. Don't ya notice how that happens all the time??? :wink:

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