The price you pay...
  • for making some common,small errors and deviations from basic Strategy may not be as high as people would have you think.
    For a non-professional player,10,000 hands a year would seem to be the high end limit on their play,so I used that as a benchmark.
    Suppose you don't have your soft hands down pat.You double on A/3 vs.3 and stand on A/7 vs.3. In addition you can't quite remember if you split 2s against 7 or only 2-6s.So half the time you split,half the time you hit.
    How much money do you suppose these errors will cost you in a year(10,000 hands)
    Obviously it depends on the particular games you play and its rule,but let us say the house has a .75 edge over the player and will keep 75 cents of every $100 you bet.As a recreational player lets assume you average $10 bets.
    A much simpler strategy than basic,called MGM,that you can learn on the plane to Vegas claims to have a 98% return and it advises never split 2s,and standing on A/7 vs 3 amongst it many deviations,so splitting the difference between the two means that making these three common mistakes may cost you about 25 cents per $100. But does it really?
    In 10,000 hands,how often will you get a pair of 2s against the dealers 7? Or A/7 vs.3? Not nearly often enough to sweat them,or to not play because you don't know BS 100%.
    If(and I admit its a big IF) my math is correct,the perfect BS player in my example will play 10,000 hand at $10, so he'll cycle thru the table $100,000 and the casino will retain $750 of it.
    The MGM player will cycle $100,000 thru and the casino will keep $2,000
    The player who makes a few common errors in BS will cycle $100,000 and the casino will keep around $1,000. So,those few mistakes should cost you about $250,tops,over perfect BasicStratergy,over 10,000 hands and 100 or more hours of play.Bad news for someone trying to make a living playing this game,but chump change for your average person who just is looking for a fun time in Vegas or AC.
  • go to www.cardcounter.com. Eliot wrote an article there about what mistakes cost you. An occasional error is just about impossible to avoid. But it won't take a lot to lose that tiny edge. particularly if the errors come in + counts where you are betting big.

    at cc.com, look for the article right in the center of the page, "The real cost of mistakes..."

    It's an informative read...
  • Here's a simpler and better noob strategy IMHO:

    DD 9 and Soft DD A2-A6 vs. 4-5-6 Else Hit.
    DD A7 vs. 4-5-6 and Hit vs. 9-10-A Else Stand.
    DD 10 vs. 2-9.
    Always DD 11.

    Split 4's vs. 5&6 Else Hit.
    Split other pairs except 5's and 10's vs. 2-3-4-5-6.
    In addition: Split 99 vs. 8-9 and Split 77 vs. 7.
    Always split 8's and Aces.

    Surrender 16 vs. 9-10-Ace and 15 vs. 10.
    If you can't Surrender, these hands hit.
    Stand on 3-card (or more)16 against a dealer 10.

    Stand 12 vs. 4-5-6 Else Hit.
    Stand 13, 14, 15, or 16 vs. 2 to 6 Else Hit.
  • Simple,but not as simple as MGM,which almost anyone can learn on the way to a casino.
    Rule 1-Hit anything less than 11.If you can't break,hit it. Exception being ace,seven or above.
    Rule 2 Don't hit 12 or over against a dealers 6 or less.don't bust,let the dealer bust
    Rule 3 Against a dealers 7 or above -hit until you get 17 or above.Dealer won't bust as often so take a shot.
    Rule 4 Double down on 11
    Rule 5 Double down on 10 except against a 10 or an ace.
    Rule 6 Split Aces and 8s. The dead mans hands
    Rule 7- Don't take insurance,ever.

    Not nearly as powerful,but simple enough to give a newbie a fighting chance and expose them to the game.
    Playing $5-$10 a hand,they should last quite awhile and lose less than just playing by gut or hitting the slot machines.
  • Both Strategies are BAD... and doesn't account for H17 or S17. Noobs are very likely to get duped into playing H17 using either strategy, as tables are not always brightly lit proclaiming H17.

    Either method will make the casino more money than it deserves. The only "fighting chance a player has", noob or not, is Basic. Only CC can effectively remove the vig.
  • I'm cetainly not suggesting they are as good as BS. But they are simple strategys that are easily learned
    that will reduce the house edge for a BEGINNING player.
    But is it really all that necessary for a casual player to know to hit or double on a play that occurs every 250 hands or so? For the pro -yes. But the casual ten hour a year player who might see that hand five times a year?
    Even Elliot Jacobson,in the article SSR links above,seems to indicate that you can make mistakes,even big mistakes,and still be a winner.
    A far cry from the "you must be perfect" school of thought espoused here by some.
  • After using Hitorstand to play perfect basic strategy,and taking baby steps towards a 10 count system, I was simply AMAZED at the poor play by so many players!!! I mean peolpe splitting 10's, people hitting 13's against a dealers 5 !!! Casinos certainly should not fear us, there are more than enough fools to keep the casinos rolling in the $$$$. Heck, I got home from Vegas, called my broker and bought stock.
  • just remember that some of those people splitting 10's, hitting 13's, and the like might be card counters rather than idiots. :)

    The goal of a card counter is to play like a genius while looking like an idiot. Many pull that off quite well...
  • please lets not give counters such a high mark..... I played last night and all the counting in the world could not beat the dealer.... they wiped the entire table out....

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