Hitting / Standing 12 v 4
  • Hi All,
    I know BS says to stand on 12 v 4 but I know the percentages are closer than most people think. In fact I remember reading that in negative counts you should hit 12 v 4. Can someone tell me what % of the time you would bust by hitting 12 v 4 with a running count of 0.

    Thanks in advance
  • Oh, yes. The Dr. Pepper Rule strikes again!
  • pharmnatr said:
    Hi All,
    I know BS says to stand on 12 v 4 but I know the percentages are closer than most people think. In fact I remember reading that in negative counts you should hit 12 v 4. Can someone tell me what % of the time you would bust by hitting 12 v 4 with a running count of 0.

    Thanks in advance


    With an equal dispersion of cards then the chance of you busting is the same chance as receiving a face card i.e. 4/13 or 30.77%.
  • blackjack bluebook states that only if your 12 is pic +2 vs dealer 4 ,then u hit it , otherwise stand

    so stand if u are 7 5 , 6 6 , 4 8 , 3 9
  • Geoff- With a 12, your statement is correct if you ask what is the chance
    that the next hit will bust my hand? However, with a starting hand of 12
    there are many ways to bust other than with a ten spot.

    For example, you draw a 4 for 16 and then bust with a 6,7,8,9,or 10. We
    could figure the overall probability by looking at all combinations, but why
    bother.

    Your answer more than likely answered beyond14 question and my only
    intent was to point out other possibilities.
  • Ray said:

    For example, you draw a 4 for 16 and then bust with a 6,7,8,9,or 10. We
    could figure the overall probability by looking at all combinations, but why
    bother.


    Yes, but, what why you hit a 16 against a 4??
  • deeplennon-Thanks, 13 or 14 would have been a better example. Like you
    say don't hit 16 vs 4. I don't know of an index for that play eighter.
  • Ray said:
    deeplennon-Thanks, 13 or 14 would have been a better example. Like you
    say don't hit 16 vs 4. I don't know of an index for that play eighter.


    Ray, I was assuming that the player will stand on 13 or more but you are quite right that the result would vary a lot if the player was trying to reach a particular total.
  • beyond14 said:
    blackjack bluebook states that only if your 12 is pic +2 vs dealer 4 ,then u hit it , otherwise stand

    so stand if u are 7 5 , 6 6 , 4 8 , 3 9



    Actually, if you have a 6 6 vs. a dealer's 4 you should SPLIT your 6's

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