Playing Efficiency
  • In the last chapter of Fred’s BJ Bluebook II there is a chart titled “Card Rank”. It ranks the various count systems, tells which cards are counted and gives a percentages of Bet & Play results for each system.

    Look at KISS III with 96% bet and 55% play. Is the play percent an indication of when to vary from Basic Strategy per the count? If so, looks like the variation is only right 55% of the time and wrong 45% of the time. With the variation being wrong 45% of the time, why bother with it, just stick with BS. The table also indicates that with the Hi/lo system and basic KISS the BS variations are correct only 51% of the time and wrong 49% of the time. Seems much to do about nothing. What am I missing here?
  • Essentially those rankings are Bet Correlation and Playing Efficiency. To keep it simple, Bet Correlation is useful for shoe-dealt games of 6 or 8 decks. Kiss is very good at shoe games. Here, there are a lot of cards of each particular rank, and so the removal of just one isn't very important. Thus it becomes more important that the overall score, and its proper wager should be followed. The accent is on the wager, rather than the strength of one rank.

    Playing Efficiency is based upon the removal of cards, and is best when hand dealt games of 1 or 2 decks are played. Here, the effect of removing one card (say a King or a 5) is quite large as there's fewer of them. I think the best one gets is 70% PE. Some of the level 2 counts get as high as 67-68%.

    In short, what you see in that listing is the preferences to the game. Some systems are better at 2 decks, and some are better at a shoe game.
  • To say it another way, when the PE is high, the way in which you play has more to do with if you are going to win. When the BE is high, the way in which you bet has more to do with if you are going to win.
  • PE is not all that easy to understand compared to BC and I don't think that
    it is an apples to apples comparison when it comes to counting systems.

    Some unbalanced systems have a PE that is slightly higher than high/Low,
    but they don't out perform H/L even when the BC is the same or close to it.

    Take the example given: KISS III = 96/55 and H/L = 97/51

    In my opinion H/L will out perform KISS because of the number of variations.
    Say 50-60 vs KISS III , 28. H/L scores 51 with twice as many variations as
    KISS. If you included all the H/L variations in a KISS sim,I do not believe KISS
    would score anywhere near 55 because of the drift in accuracy. Most KISS
    variations are near the pivot, are limited and as a result will score higher.

    I don't think that you would see any difference in shoe games because of the
    infrequent counts for H/L's extended variations.
  • I'm playing a 6 Deck game, S17, DOA,DAS, RSA to 4, late Surrender,
    good pen (80% + / -) I think that's about -.24% advantage.
    Would you agree that the learning of the Advantage Strategy Index Numbers [chapter 10] should be very low on the priority list? If ever, as the % increase in play efficiency using it is so very small?? Why bother to learn it, better to practice the table counting to get the correct count to make the correct bet. That's where the effort should be spent for a typical weekend counter!!!
  • That's not a bad idea. But at least memorize the indeces for 16 v 10 and insurance. Those are the two most importants one.
  • I currently hit a two card 16 vs 10 and stand on a three card 16 vs 10. I think that is the rule of 45. Also I hit the 10 & 2 vs the 4. Dr P rule.
    The insurance is easy at 25. I agree the insurance and maybe one or two more changes, but in general it makes more sense to really know BS, with surrender 15 vs 10 and 16 vs 9, 10, A and then concentrate on the counting aspect of the cards to get the correct bet out $$.
    Surrender helps when you have a large bet out. I spread 1 to 8 at the $5 table.
  • Another thought. Just playing straight BS without any index changs should be good cover for a counter. At low $$ risk.:)
  • If you reflect back on experience, it should tell you that winning sessions
    usually mean you get and make doubles. And, of course, your share of BJ's.

    At a min I would try to learn:

    - Insurance
    - 16 vs 10
    - 11 vs A
    - A7 vs 2
    - A8 vs 5,6
    - 8 vs 6
    - 9 vs 2

    All of these, other than insurance/16, are 19,20,21 for KISS, easy to remember and likely to occur.
  • Here are some 1 billion hand sim results using the KISS III Count in a six deck game with a 1-to-10 spread (S17, DOA, DAS, No Rspl, No Surr, 4.25 decks dealt).

    Basic Strategy: +.50%
    All 21 index plays from pg. 155: +.70%
    Just two index plays (16 vs. 10 & Insurance): +.63%

    The remaining 19 index plays are worth .07% together -- or 10% of your net EV.
  • Thanks Fred, If I wanted to learn a few more plays, could you list the 19 index plays in order of importance.

    Ray has suggested some additional plays, what order of importance would you rank them? I always think the A8 (19) seems a bit much to take a card for the double.

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