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  • Went to Aztar in Mo. sat. lost. 6 deck shu basic strattage. Rules not important at this point this is the way the day went. I hit 18 dealer 19 me 19 dealer 20 me 20 dealer 21 me 21 dealer BJ. I said well cant last so i went back Sun. same thing. I did everything possible maybe to change the cards, changed tables nothing helped. Using the Kiss III system i even had up to a 37 count did'nt help. I know of two mistakes i made i did'nt use my money managment system and i did'nt leave early enough. Anyone else had it this bad, or did i do something wrong? Rules DAS,DDany ,hit s17, SP any, no su.
  • From time to time, I have had the same type of result.
    Nothing works, regardless of the "Count".
    In thinking about it, the books claim the high count, which means more high cards, is better for the player. BUT, say you have a KISS count of 22, which equals a true count of 2. Assume you are half way through, with 3 decks left to play, that makes 6 more high cards in 156 cards left. That's less than 5 %. Not much improvement 6 in 156??? With 3 decks left that's 2 per deck or 1 high card per 26 cards. If the average hand is 2.7 cards, that's about 1 extra high card in every 10 hands. Not much!!!!!!!!
    Also the books say more high cards are better for the player because they can DD and split. But when the dealer has a 10, you don't DD. Also most splits are when lower cards are in either your hand or the dealer's hand.
    With more high cards you tend to break more. It doesn't matter if the dealer breaks, when you break you lose.
    So all in all the high counts don't give you much of an advantage, don't expect much.
  • sage01 said:
    From time to time, I have had the same type of result.
    Nothing works, regardless of the "Count".
    In thinking about it, the books claim the high count, which means more high cards, is better for the player. BUT, say you have a KISS count of 22, which equals a true count of 2. Assume you are half way through, with 3 decks left to play, that makes 6 more high cards in 156 cards left. That's less than 5 %. Not much improvement 6 in 156??? With 3 decks left that's 2 per deck or 1 high card per 26 cards. If the average hand is 2.7 cards, that's about 1 extra high card in every 10 hands. Not much!!!!!!!!
    Also the books say more high cards are better for the player because they can DD and split. But when the dealer has a 10, you don't DD. Also most splits are when lower cards are in either your hand or the dealer's hand.
    With more high cards you tend to break more. It doesn't matter if the dealer breaks, when you break you lose.
    So all in all the high counts don't give you much of an advantage, don't expect much.


    Most of the advantage comes from a higher % of bj's. Unless the count is quite negative i DD on 11vs10, and when the count is extremely positive i will DD on 10vs10 because im looking for that Ace or ten... High counts don't give you MUCH of a advantage, but you have the advantage. Everyone takes big losses here and there, if you keep playing the %'s will eventually turn your way..
  • dynomike said:
    Went to Aztar in Mo. sat. lost. 6 deck shu basic strattage. Rules not important at this point this is the way the day went. I hit 18 dealer 19 me 19 dealer 20 me 20 dealer 21 me 21 dealer BJ. I said well cant last so i went back Sun. same thing. I did everything possible maybe to change the cards, changed tables nothing helped. Using the Kiss III system i even had up to a 37 count did'nt help. I know of two mistakes i made i did'nt use my money managment system and i did'nt leave early enough. Anyone else had it this bad, or did i do something wrong? Rules DAS,DDany ,hit s17, SP any, no su.


    Also H17 sucks in a six deck game. And the money managment issue.. doesnt matter, just dont overbet your BR and your bet spread is important. You stated you left tooo early, how do you know the cards wouldn't have turned in your favor? Ive had some of my better wins after being down tremendous amounts in the same session.
  • dynomike said:
    Went to Aztar in Mo. sat. lost. 6 deck shu basic strattage. Rules not important at this point this is the way the day went. I hit 18 dealer 19 me 19 dealer 20 me 20 dealer 21 me 21 dealer BJ. I said well cant last so i went back Sun. same thing. I did everything possible maybe to change the cards, changed tables nothing helped. Using the Kiss III system i even had up to a 37 count did'nt help. I know of two mistakes i made i did'nt use my money managment system and i did'nt leave early enough. Anyone else had it this bad, or did i do something wrong? Rules DAS,DDany ,hit s17, SP any, no su.


    I think you know that these kind of things happen and it always seems they happen more often than they should. You beat the dealer over and over again by one and you just take it for granted but when it happens to you, it sticks with you.
    We play a game that comes with a small house edge and we change it to a game with a small player edge, but one thing it always comes with is high variance. When the big cards come out, all you need is your share of them but sometimes they go the other way.
    Changing cards (unless you are worried the old cards are short aces and faces), changing tables (unless to wong out or move to a table with better penetration) is a tell that you still have some ploppy superstition in you. Remember the flow of the cards is simply a myth followed by those who like to donate to the coffers of their casino of choice. This makes me wonder about perhaps other errors you may have made. Nevertheless, days like this will happen to everyone and you never know, it might happen to change on the next hand or just continue. One session, trip, month, its all a very short part of the long run.

    ihate17
  • Thinking about the long & short run, I have been running Sims of BJ hands with various betting schemes. (Just bought some software) Some interesting results, if you have a small edge, no matter how small, and bet big then run 10,000,000 + hands it shows a great result. So if you bet big with even a very small edge, the results of the computer runs look great. Thus a system that recommend big bets with a small edge looks great if you run enough hands. But the variance over short runs can be a killer with big losses. (And we all play to the short runs!)
    As an example, KISS has a very aggressive betting ramp. But the more aggressive the better the one million run results look. Note, the variance is not discussed. Look at Red 7 by Arnold Snyder (he has a web site) Red 7 is quite like KISS, only you count red 7's instead of black 2's. Arnold has a much less aggressive bet ramp. Thus the variance would be less. But the big sim runs may not look as positive.
    N&B (who posts on this site) has helped me reduce my BR variance with his Missouri ramp and less aggressive top bets. I win a little less, but have a lot less variance (the BR swings are smaller) Rule 1, Don’t over bet the Bank Roll!!
  • Sage:
    If your software will show you more than the final result of millions of hands, one thing that can really bring the point of variance home when one is perhaps not only betting big, but overbetting, is a look at the lowest point of your sim. Often, even though the 10 million hand result will be great, there just might be a low point where you have dumped your complete bankroll. So perhaps a discussion of ROR and Kelly.

    ihate17
  • Well i only changed tables after i gave up on that one but i came back to it and did'nt help any. I see what yall are saying about long term but i all but got wiped out on that one. The thing about it everyone on that table got hit hard that day according to the dealers. I think i will study up on double deck and try it, and change my betting system where it is not so aggressive. I read you have better odds there. Thanks for the info.
  • ihate17 has got it right.
    In 10,000,000 hands, using a $5 bet unit and a spread of 1 to 10, which is recommended by the book. You get a positive result long term $$, as expected. You win money and get ahead $$.
    BUT maximum loss for a single shoe was $710 and maximum win for a single shoe was $745. The maximum total loss (low point of the BR was $2410, a lot for a red chip player!)
    Another interesting item, insurance was offered 770,036 times, accepted 72,017 times (less than 10%, accepted only when the count was high)
    Insurance won: 25,852 times and lost 46,165 times. But had a positive $$ expectation of .09%. So from a $$ standpoint, insurance when the count is high is a good bet, but you will lose almost half of the insurance bets.
    Another interesting stat:
    As expected, a typical result (long term)

    won 33.58%
    won - double 5.58%
    BJ 4.40%
    lost 44.03%
    lost - double 3.85%
    push 8.56%
  • sage01 said:
    ihate17 has got it right.

    Another interesting item, insurance was offered 770,036 times, accepted 72,017 times (less than 10%, accepted only when the count was high)
    Insurance won: 25,852 times and lost 46,165 times. But had a positive $$ expectation of .09%. So from a $$ standpoint, insurance when the count is high is a good bet, but you will lose almost half of the insurance bets.
    Another interesting stat:

    Actually, you lost way more than half your insurance bets but since insurance pays 2 to 1, as long as you win over 1/3, you are money ahead. Since the dealer has a 4/13 chance of blackjack (less than 1 of 3, insurance is always a bad bet unless you are counting.

    As expected, a typical result (long term)

    won 33.58%
    won - double 5.58%
    BJ 4.40%
    lost 44.03%
    lost - double 3.85%
    push 8.56%


    This adds up almost perfectly, win 43.5%, lose 48% and push 8.5%. For those who do not know why the player loses more hands than he wins, it is because of the key rule of blackjack. That is; if both you and the dealer bust, you lose.

    ihate17
  • Doesnt this mean that the odds favor the casino by 4 1/2 % then? This with perfect BS and counting?
  • Rando said:
    Doesnt this mean that the odds favor the casino by 4 1/2 % then? This with perfect BS and counting?



    Rando:
    It would add up to 4 1/2% and make the game unplayable, but the installation of player friendly rules brings those odds ways down. The player gets 3/2 for blackjack, can double down, can double after split, can split, and can surrender and the dealer can not do any of these.
    That is why the old bikini pit game at Rio had almost a 3% edge because of all these rules, the 3/2 payout is most significant (bikini pit game you a whopping 1/1).

    ihate17
  • A little info:

    Going first cost = 8% House Advantage

    However:

    -3:2 BJ = 2.25 House Adv Reduction
    -Proper Splits = .5 Reduction in HA
    -BS Hit/Stand = 3.25
    -DD = 1.5

    Total = 7.5 Reduction in HA

    Therefore:

    8% HA minus 7.5% = .5 Average HA

    As you can see, playing all your hands correctly is the most important, followed by BJ's, etc.
  • You probably missed counted there is no way that the count would get that high.
  • Actually learningtocount the count could possibly have been that high. Using the Kiss counting system you start your running count with I believe a count of 9. I don't use this way of counting so I don't know the ins and outs of it, but I do use the Hi/Lo system, and have gotten counts into the mid 20's up to low 30's before, and thats starting from 0. These counts aren't the norm but in a shoe game its not that uncommon to get high swings in the count. Although I personally never play a game that gets that far in the negative it can swing that way just as far also. I think you need to rethink your ideas before you post them, or spend more time practically applying advantage play correctly in the casino to give your opinions more credibility.

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