Betting Smart
  • Can someone give me simple explanation of progressive betting ?

    I have posted before that it is very hard to win more than two (2) hands in a row... Most progressions go to 4 or 5 hands in a row.....

    Go to member list and read some of Surfteqs post....

  • A betting progression involves altering the size of your bet based on win/loss outcomes of your hand. Most fall into two types: Positive and Negative. Some combine elements of both into a hybrid. Positive progressions involve raising your bet after a win, whereas Negative progressions involve raising your bet after a loss. There are more complex forms that do not neatly fit into these categories, but their premise is the same.

    Let it be known that betting progressions are not supported mathematically. The long term outcome demonstrated by simulations is that you will lose more than you will win. In essence, all progressions provide a greater chance of losing your money before you can double it.

    Your Expected Value determines how much you can expect to gain or lose per bet. Using progressions, your overall Expected Value is negative. For example, assume you played a casino game with an EV= -0.5; this means you will lose fifty cents per dollar (or 0.5 units per unit). If you raise your bet on a negative 0.5 EV, you will still lose the same amount per dollar, it alters nothing:

    1 unit x -EV= 0.5 units lost per unit

    10 units x -EV= 5 units lost total= 0.5 units lost per unit

    200 units x -EV= 100 units lost total = 0.5 units lost per unit

    3000 units x -EV= 1500 units lost total= 0.5 units lost per unit

    Changing a negative Expected Value into a positive one by relying solely on progressions is tantamount to trying to make water boil by staring at it.

    A link for further reading from Stanford Wong's BJ21:
  • Despite a small number of opinions to contrary, it seems the general rule of thumb is to use progressional betting at your own risk as there is nothing solid to justify its use.

    Assuming this is the case and that a player knows how to play perfect basic strategy but knows no other advantage plays, what are generally accepted good ways of 'betting smart'?

    I know there are a number of threads dedicated to this subject but it is hard to search through, as many of them seem to divert to for and against duscussions between card counting and progressioanl betting.
  • Betting smart would be, to Not bet at all.......until you know Basic Strategy.

    Then betting smart would be to flat bet the table minimum.

    Boring, but the safest way for a new player to bet.

    For different types of betting progresions :

    Do a search for Oscar's Grind.
  • Midnite-How was your vacation on Mars? Betting smart for a basic strategy player is well define in Renzey's book, best I've seen.

    Progressions- I think it was Grifter that gave a demo using several different progessions and a flat bettor. This was a short run (short term) and the results varied as to who won and who lost. When asked what would happen if the test was repeated, his response was that all the results may differ completely. More or less saying that anything was possible in the short term.

    Sims of similar progressions, flat bet players and card counters demonstrate that any progression player and flat bet B/S player will lose at the same rate and is a function of the house advantage. All progression players lose more money compared to flat betting because their average bet is always higher.

    The conclusion that is unavoidable is that the best bet for a basic strategy player is to flat bet. As for progressions, the conclusion is that they are all equivalent in terms of loss rate. No matter how you configure a progression it is the same as flat betting, but at a higher average bet.
  • Hi Ray
    How you been ?
    I have been playing more poker than BJ lately.

    I did play some a couple of weeks ago with the Grifter.
    He came to Kansas for a few days and we had a good time.
    He helped me with my poker game and we even shot some sporting clays.
  • Midnite- You may have company if things continue to go down hill in the casino conditions ( not rules...other things). Can you believe that one of my brother- in-laws gave 10,000 for a shotgun and he said that was cheap? Anything for sport!

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