Probability
  • Hello, Ive just subscribed so I hope my question is in the right place. Im trying to workout hand probabilitys. At the momment I play on betfair exchange games were all hands are face up and you have to predict the winning hand. Using a table on wizzardodds.com, looking at 2 card expected values it give a figure of 0.1931 if the dealer has a 7 and the players two cards = 9. My query is how do they calculate this. Betfair uses an infinite pack. So farin excell Ive dealt every possible combination for the dealer and for the player. But I can get no were near this figure. Im guessing I approaching this in the wrong way. For the deale I get 989 combinations with 382 standing and for the player 495 combinations with 188 standing. Any advice on how to calculate these probabilitys with an infinite pack would be much appreciated.
    Regards Robert
  • Robert- At the wizards site under blackjack appendix #1 is the tables that you should look at. He uses an infinite deck and gives you the results for hit, stand, split and double.

    In all cases, the better play for any hand ends up being the correct basic strategy play. In your case, the two cards that total nine does not matter.
    such as 7,2 or 4,5, etc. This assumes that you only see one dealer card in your example 9 vs 7.

    I don't think I understand the game you are playing where you must predict the winner. Also, why do you want to duplicate the math that the wizard and Braun has done for you?

    Lets say that you need to predict which hand out of 5 will win the round. That would mean that you would need to know the best % for all five possible hand combinations vs dealer card. That is a very tall order without some form of automated reference.
  • Ray, thankyou for your reply. In betfair exchange blackjack, there is no split or double. I do use the table to work out each of the players odds, i cant do the same for the dealer. The reason I need the math is because Ive downloaded historical data for the games. But it only supplies hand data, and not the odds. Therefore in excel Ive pasted the tables and used these to add the odds for each player. Now id like to add the odds for the dealer and Im trying to workout how to do this. First though Id thought Id try to understand how the figures are calculated in the wizzards tables. The table Im using were found by doing a search for betfair at wizzards odds. I think I need to do something like, compare each hands possible outcaomes against each others hands, then compare all the possible outcomes against the dealers outcomes, but not sure about the order.
    Regards Robert
  • Robert- Try asking the Wizard....sometimes he will respond, but the number of questions that he gets are many.

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