OPP Counting System
  • Has anyone heard of or tried the OPP Easy Card Counting system by Carlos Zilzer? If so, what did you think of the system?
  • I've used it. Its very easy to learn,but is nowhere near as effective as learning KO or Fred Renzi's KISS.I can'timagine many people staying with it on a long-term basis as its not that difficlt to go from it to better systems.
    But,the bottom line is that it does work.
  • You can search the threads -- I posted a similar thread about it a few weeks ago. I used it and it was very, very easy to use. It is not as good of a system as the others, but it is a lot easier to use.

    There still does seem to be some debate about how good exactly it is. I think its authors claim it to be a bit more powerful than others have said it is. However, everyone agrees it adds to your success while not being as powerful as other counting systems.

    I think its a great way to start counting cards and getting used to it.
  • The Speed Count also works as a starting point for beginning players.
  • Just be aware that the claims by the author are vastly overstated. OPP has about 35% of the SCORE of KO. Also, everyone does NOT agree that it "adds to your success." It has a very high risk of ruin as described.
  • IMO and based on actual test that I did-The best way to evaluate the OPP count is to crank up your practice program, display the count (usually H/L) and do an OPP count as a way to compare the two (try it with 4-5 players).

    You should take note of those plays that are close to netural (16 vs 10, 12 vs 4, etc). This assumes that you use some indices. Basic strategy may be more accurate in many cases.

    Also, there will be situations when you are betting wrong due to the fact that the high card count inference can be off 5-6, or more, running counts anywhere in the shoe (at times you will be under or over betting). Statistical extrapolations when you have a sample as small as 16-18 rounds per shoe does not give the best results shoe after shoe and I believe this is the main reason for the low score and high ROR.

    Lets say the normal shoe game deals out 4.25 decks. If the large card inference were strictly correct, at the end of 4.25 decks the count should always be close to neutral. What is true for large cards, should be just as true for small cards.
  • QFIT....Why are you always laying a dime on the Speed Count? I have been using it successfully for a couple months now and having success. It may not be as powerful as some systems, but it sure will tell you the direction the shoe is going and an accurate unbalanced count that will match any system I have read about. Some people just don't have the time or patience to learn certain difficult counting systems. For the recreational player, the Speed Count will increase his success a great deal.

    jp
  • I'm not sure what you mean by "laying a dime." It's the second time someone has said that and I don't know what it means. Speed Count was falsely advertised with rigged sims. Why do you think that should not be discussed? Why do you claim that it "matches any system that you have read about?" It clearly does not. I have run sims on most every counting strategy that exists and have discussed most every system over the years. Why is it that some people think no one should discuss results of this particular system? I'd really like an answer.
  • I still don't know about the 35% of KO claim. I have Snyder saying OPP gives you a 0.6359 advantage while Hi-Lo a 0.7723 advantage (meaning it is 82% of Hi-Lo). On the other side you are saying it ia 35% of KO (which is lower than Hi-Lo). You obviously can't both be right. If it were the case that one of you said 0.4 and the other said 0.45 I could explain it. With the current situation, I am left to assume one of you has made a big error in your calculations. Wish Snyder would respond on here and we could get a real debate going on it.
  • Arnold did not sim it. He took the author's word for it. The author's original sims have been criticized by many people. Unfortunately, he simply did not know how to compare BJ strategies. I tried to explain SCORE to him privately but he rejected my advice. Later he came to accept it as everyone told him it was the way to go. Unfortunately, the original article was never changed.

    Arnold did correctly post that the original sims did not adequately take into account risk. Unfortunately, that post is many pages deep and not as easy to found as the article.

    Further, the OPP and SC sims used NO indexes and NO Insurance for HiLo. No one plays HiLo like that. To claim it is x% of HiLo but to cripple HiLo makes no sense. The SC sims for HiLo raised the bet at TC=0. There is no advantage at TC0. This further seriously damages HiLo.

    There are so many problems with the OPP/SC author sims. I performed 2,000 OPP sims using optimal betting and SCORE calculations and placed them all online. No one has found any errors.
  • I don't have any of QFIT'S stuff, but I can tell you from experience that he can't afford to be wrong. There is too much at stake for his analytical software products.
  • Ray, he is wrong. I played 100 hours last month and 24 so far this month with success using Speed Count. Maybe I have been just lucky, but I don't think so. I'm not saying the Speed Count System is a powerful one, but I'm saying it is better then nothing. During the last 5 weeks I have only accepted a BJ insurance bet 5 times and won 4. I'm up over $7,000 in approx. six weeks. Yes, I could be on a streak, but the way I play my losses are limited. I don't care how much this Qfit outfit has invested in it's system, it's still harder to learn than the Speed Count. I play blackjack for the fun of it. I'm not attempting to make a living. I don't have too. I have fresh, large, BR whenever I would need it. I enjoy traveling after I retired a few years back and enjoy just breaking even or winning small amounts after covering expenses. I enjoy the game, and don't have any stress concerning losing say $5,00 a trip. Just go home and send them a check. I wish this QFIT outfit all the best, and maybe someday I'll use it, but for now I'm happy at my development. I don't know anything about sims, indexes, etc., but I do know if I have a plus +8 after two/three rounds of 6 or 8 deck game that I'm in a good position to finish shoe. If not I just wong out. Next!
  • A. I don't sell systems.

    B. Don't take this the wrong way. But your post has been made before by hundreds of progression players. I made some money, so my system must work. You will also find this argument in numerous progression books. Empirical evidence doesn't trump math. Look, you can play any way that you wish. But don't you see the problem when you admit that you "don't know anything about sims, indexes, etc." and yet give advice to other players while claiming flat out that other people are wrong.

    C. I again ask, what do you mean I am "laying a dime" on SC and why do you think no one should discuss the numbers?
  • Jim- As far as I know, OPP and SC have a positive score and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise. Being aware of the ACTUAL performance should help to hone your expectations.
  • Ray is right here. We all agree that OPP/SC can give you a positive edge. The only “dime laying” is in the fact that it does not perform nearly as well as advertised, as proven by Qfit (and others). Anyone trying to choose a system should be aware of that. I think jimpenn said it best:


    “I'm not saying the Speed Count System is a powerful one, but I'm saying it is better then nothing.”


    I think that should be the slogan for SC: “It’s better than nothing.”

    -Sonny-
  • jimpenn said:
    Ray, he is wrong. I played 100 hours last month and 24 so far this month with success using Speed Count. Maybe I have been just lucky, but I don't think so. I'm not saying the Speed Count System is a powerful one, but I'm saying it is better then nothing. During the last 5 weeks I have only accepted a BJ insurance bet 5 times and won 4. I'm up over $7,000 in approx. six weeks. Yes, I could be on a streak, but the way I play my losses are limited. I don't care how much this Qfit outfit has invested in it's system, it's still harder to learn than the Speed Count. I play blackjack for the fun of it. I'm not attempting to make a living. I don't have too. I have fresh, large, BR whenever I would need it. I enjoy traveling after I retired a few years back and enjoy just breaking even or winning small amounts after covering expenses. I enjoy the game, and don't have any stress concerning losing say $5,00 a trip. Just go home and send them a check. I wish this QFIT outfit all the best, and maybe someday I'll use it, but for now I'm happy at my development. I don't know anything about sims, indexes, etc., but I do know if I have a plus +8 after two/three rounds of 6 or 8 deck game that I'm in a good position to finish shoe. If not I just wong out. Next!


    Jim...

    He is _not_ saying OPP doesn't work. He is saying that (a) it is nowhere near as good as hi-lo (and he is dead right, and it is actually intuitive when you analyze OPP carefully) and (b) it has a higher risk/variance (again right because if you look at how OPP "estimates" the count and how often it is wrong, you play with a lower advantage, which absolutely increases your variance, and therefore your risk of ruin.)

    So yes, you can make money with OPP. You can make 3x as much using a real hi-lo approach with a few reasonable indices plus insurance (insurance is a profitable thing if you use a _real_ count)...
  • I agree with just about everything you AP's say. My only point that I was attempting to justify Speed Count's value in quickly evaluating a 6/8D shoe within the first two decks. If the first three rounds produces say a negative (-7) unbalanced count the player should wong out. If backcounting and the first three rounds, for example, shows a +7, it's a good time to enter shoe. Second, I never said I was an AP. I'm a recreational player who likes the Speed Count for a quick evaluation of the shoe and make a decision to stay or get out. In this respect I see value in using the Speed Count.

    I'm not attempting to make a living playing blackjack. I'm a social player who has achieved success in quickly judging a shoe and the value of continuing to play it or get out.

    jp

    P.S. Maybe it should be called " It's better than nothing", but I have limited my losses by using it. A good example ...recently I was playing in the midwest and never in my life did I ever take insurance against a dealer's A. In one shoe with a +10 Speed Count (41 6D) I played the insurance bet twice in a row and hit both. I would never had made this play if I didn't know the count was that high. To me this is a system that has value for a recreational player, and a hell of a lot easier to learn than other systems. Of course I know it's not as powerful, but it works.
  • Thanks for the reply QFIT. That's quite helpful.
  • jimpenn said:
    I played the insurance bet twice in a row and hit both.


    You might be interested to know that a HiLo player in a typical LV Strip shoe game will win about 34.6% of Insurance bets. If he keeps an Insurance side count with a 100% Insurance Correlation, he will win about 35.4% of Insurance bets. Deal to the bottom of the shoe with an Insurance side count and that goes up to 38.9%.

    norm

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