Question for Fred Renzey
  • Hi Fred-
    If I'm holding a 15 or 16 against a dealers 10 upcard do you think I should surrender even if the Kiss III index number has not been reached?
    Thanks alot.
    rogue1
  • rogue1 said:
    Hi Fred-
    If I'm holding a 15 or 16 against a dealers 10 upcard do you think I should surrender even if the Kiss III index number has not been reached?
    Thanks alot.
    rogue1


    Fred will answer when he sees this, but I always surrender 16 vs 9, 10 or A, which is basic strategy with no overriding index play. 15 vs 10 is a different animal and should be surrendered at a TC of +0 or higher. So whatever Kiss III index translates to a hi-lo TC of 0 should be the surrender point for 15 vs 10. Also surrender 15 vs 9 or A at a TC of +2 (hi-lo)...
  • Rogue -- I'm going to assume you're talking about a 6 or 8 deck game. Page 157 or 158 of BJBBII (depending upon which edition) contains surrender indices for the KISS Count. Beginning at a running count of "9" for six decks, you should indeed surrender 16 vs. 10 if the running count is "0" or higher, per the chart. With 15 vs. 10, the chart says to surrender at a running count of "12" or higher, and that's fine.

    Remember though, that unbalanced indices have some amount of "sliding inaccuracy" to them. Steadfast players could be slightly more accurate with this hand (15 vs. 10) if they just surrendered anytime the running count were above "normal" for that current level of the shoe. For example, starting off at "9", your running count should rise by an average of 2 points for each deck that's been dealt. Therefore, when you're one deck in, a running count of "11" would be normal, or "even". Two decks in it should be "13", etc. Playing this hand in "true count mode", you'd surrender off the top at "10", one deck in at "12", two decks in at "14", etc. -- anytime the running count is above normal.

    There are a couple of other basic hands that can easily be "true count" played this way and they are 12 vs. 4 and 16 vs. 10. Just become familiar with what running count would be "normal" at each particular deck level of the shoe, then hit 12 vs. 4 if the running count is lower than that, and stand with 16 vs. 10 if the running count is higher. Pages 175 and 176 of the 2006 edition lay this out in further detail.
  • Rogue -- Forgot to mention that it would also be correct and more accurate to surrender 16 vs. 9 in the same fashion, rather than just using a fixed index number of "12".

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