Anyone know the odds?
  • What are the odds that a player will bust if he hits his 15 vs a dealers 10 or Ace?
    What are the odds that a player will bust if he hits his 16 vs a dealers 9,10,or Ace?
    This is assuming 6 deck shoe game,dealer hits a soft 17.
    Thanks alot!
  • If the player bust,what difference does it make what card the dealer has showing?Player will bust by hitting his 15 against any card the same,no?
  • What I meant to ask is this: What are the odds that I'll bust if I hit a hard 15 or 16?
    Sorry for the confusion.
  • I seem to recall a number like 61% for 16 and a little less for 15.
    There are (8)cards that will bust a 16 and (5) that want. So, 13/8=61% and 13/7=54%.
  • I'm not an AP, but I would think the odds would be determined by the count at the time. If you mean the first hand of a shoe I'm sure the pro AP's could answer this if they desire to. I do know one thing, if the count was an unbalanced -7 I would have no problem hitting with confidence. Right or wrong I would take the hit. Like I said, I'm not an AP but I'll take my chances at this count.
  • rogue1 said:
    What I meant to ask is this: What are the odds that I'll bust if I hit a hard 15 or 16?
    Sorry for the confusion.



    Easy to answer. You have a 16. There are 5 cards that will help you, 8 that will break you (6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K). So with that 16, you have a 8/13 probability of breaking. But assuming you are going to follow basic strategy, it is a bit more complicated for the 15 case. The 16 case is as given above. Because you would only hit to 17 and one card will guarantee at least that. But for the 15 case, you have a 7/13 probability of breaking instantly (7,8,9,10,J,Q,K) and 1/13 probability of getting an A and ending up in the 16 case above. So the probability of breaking with a 15 is 7/13 + 8/13 * 1/13 (if you get the ace, 1 in 13 times, then you will bust 8/13 of the time after hitting that 16). Total for the 15 then is 7/13 + 8/169 = 99/169 = 58.58% of the time. Total for the 16 is to break 61.54% of the time.

    Note that the above assumes infinite deck. Exact numbers would depend on exactly what cards had been removed from that 6 deck shoe, which is not worth calculating that accurately...
  • I think that you must say the probability to break with 15 is 54.1. The reason for that is if you draw an ace the 15 is now history. Futhermore, you can not assume that a player, counter or basic, will hit 16 if he drew an ace. The index for a counter is +1r for 16. He may or may not hit. The basic player may or may not hit 16 because of the rule of 45 or some other board knowledge. Some possible no hit situations are:
    10,5,A
    4,6,5,A
    4,10,A,A
    5,4,6,A
    5,5,5,A

    The most likely hand is 10,5 vs 10. If he gets an ace, he stands... otherwise busts.

    Now, if you say, I'm going to make a hand or bust. What is the probability that I will bust with a starting hand of 15? That's different....
  • But your chances of winning the hand increase by you taking the hit in every situation you describe. Thats really the important statistic.Standing on those hands will cost you a good bit more than hitting them in the long run.
  • NYB said:
    But your chances of winning the hand increase by you taking the hit in every situation you describe. Thats really the important statistic.Standing on those hands will cost you a good bit more than hitting them in the long run.


    For those hands where the case is 16 vs 10, the the 4's and 5's tilt the odds
    in favor of standing. In all cases where you face a dealer 2-6 you would not hit. However, you are correct if the dealer hand is 7,8,9,A and as a result I will replace the "X" with, a 10. My miss-Q.....

    My point is, if you play your hand correctly, you can limit how many times you bust.
  • You and a friend are at a BJ table and the dealer deals you a 5,5 and your friend a 4,5 vs the dealer 10 showing. You can't double so you draw a 6. Now you have 16 vs 10 and have (2) good reasons to stand. Your friend pulls a 7 for 16 and he has 2 good reasons to stand. What are they?

    1) Both you and your friend could make good use of a 4 or 5, but exactly four of your most important cards are in play (3 fives and 1 four). so you must stand.

    2) All the cards showing amounts to 5 small cards, 1 neutral(7) and 1 large card(10). That amounts to a +4 running count and far exceeds the min index required to stay on 16 vs 10. These are just two of the things that a basic strategy player should know short of learning to count cards.

    And, oh by the way, I was not disagreeing with SSR's numbers, but it may have seemed that way. As for as I know, his numbers are correct if you hit-out to a made hand or bust.
  • Ray said:
    I think that you must say the probability to break with 15 is 54.1. The reason for that is if you draw an ace the 15 is now history. Futhermore, you can not assume that a player, counter or basic, will hit 16 if he drew an ace. The index for a counter is +1r for 16. He may or may not hit. The basic player may or may not hit 16 because of the rule of 45 or some other board knowledge. Some possible no hit situations are:
    10,5,A
    4,6,5,A
    4,10,A,A
    5,4,6,A
    5,5,5,A

    The most likely hand is 10,5 vs 10. If he gets an ace, he stands... otherwise busts.

    Now, if you say, I'm going to make a hand or bust. What is the probability that I will bust with a starting hand of 15? That's different....



    I was answering it in the context of (If I start with a 15 vs an A 10 or 9, what is my probability for busting. And there the Ace on the 15 doesn't matter since I have to hit it again (my bs cards say hit 16 vs 10, and as I mentioned, I followed pure BS in analyzing the odds)...

    The 15 + A = 16 is a fine point that could be argued, but assuming you will hit 16 vs A for example, that 1/13 of the time you get the A means you hit again...

    And remaining cards also has a lot to do with the probability, hence my disclaimer about "infinite deck"...
  • Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?
  • I seriously doubt that a card counter would have asked such a basic question.
    When a new person comes on here to ask a question like this,I think the answers should be addressed as if the person wasn't counting and is using basic.Anything more really just muddles the situation and is really more information that a newcomer really needs.
    Thoughts?
  • jimpenn said:
    Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?


    By then we would all be at the bar having our one and only drink...............
  • jimpenn said:
    Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?


    I'd be on the way to the lil boyz room
  • good thing you have that unlimited br jimpenn
  • Your right Golfnut...Life is Good!

    Suites, whores and Franklin's ...Only in America!
  • jimpenn said:
    Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?


    You are missing something. I would not hit 16 vs 10 ever. "counter's basic strategy" for 16 vs 10 is stand. Because in a + count, the actual hi-lo index is to stand, and I do not want to use that particular playing index in a casino because it is so well-known and obvious. I don't care about the small EV loss in negative counts, since that EV is multiplied by a small bet. I care more about the EV gain in + counts where the EV is multiplied by a large bet...

    If you play 16 vs 10 the same way all the time, they can't use that as a counter's "tell" to recognize what you are doing. And since the EV in - counts is pretty much irrelevant for that play, throw them off...
  • SSRat..."I don't care about the small EV loss in negative counts."

    Well, I sure do if I have a substantial bet out, especially when playing in AC.
  • jimpenn said:
    SSRat..."I don't care about the small EV loss in negative counts."

    Well, I sure do if I have a substantial bet out, especially when playing in AC.


    Why would you have a substantial bet out in a negative count? The preferable bet to have out there is $0.00 if at all possible...
  • You could be in third base and the count is positive when the hand is dealt, but then goes very negative by the time its your turn to act. With six players, I could easily imagine a swing of 5 or 10. If you are in the last half of the last deck, that would double the count swing. Right?
  • FunkyChicken said:
    You could be in third base and the count is positive when the hand is dealt, but then goes very negative by the time its your turn to act. With six players, I could easily imagine a swing of 5 or 10. If you are in the last half of the last deck, that would double the count swing. Right?


    Perhaps. But you won't find me at a SD game with 6 players. You only get one round dealt so you never get to adjust your bet according to the count in the first place... But yes, I suppose one could end up with a big bet in a somewhat negative count, although most of this discussion has been about shoes where you don't get down to the 1/2 deck and below remaining cards...
  • FunkyChicken said:
    You could be in third base and the count is positive when the hand is dealt, but then goes very negative by the time its your turn to act. With six players, I could easily imagine a swing of 5 or 10. If you are in the last half of the last deck, that would double the count swing. Right?


    Makes little difference. Your hand still will have been dealt from a positive set of cards and you will therefore still be more likely to have a BJ. In fact, you would hope that the count would swing downwards as that means high cards were dealt.
  • That's right, but if it gets to you, the playing decision should be based on the count at the time you are acting, not at the count at the time the hand was dealt. My only point was that it is possible for you to have a good size bet out on a hand when the count is negative (i.e. because it becomes negative as the hand is dealt).
  • FunkyChicken said:
    That's right, but if it gets to you, the playing decision should be based on the count at the time you are acting, not at the count at the time the hand was dealt. My only point was that it is possible for you to have a good size bet out on a hand when the count is negative (i.e. because it becomes negative as the hand is dealt).


    If that is the case, answer this one:

    Before the cards are dealt you have a count that justifies insurance. Out comes the cards and you have BJ, the dealer shows an ace and other players have 20's. The count falls below the insurance index. Even money or punt?
  • its gotta be punt
  • SSRat..A substantial bet for me is $50. If I played this amount on previous positive count and won, I would not pull back bet until loss. It would look bad if I just won a $50 and reduced my bet to $10 the next round because the count went down. I keep betting $50 until I lose and then return to my $10/15 bet and wong out if continued decline. How would you handle this play?
  • jimpenn said:
    SSRat..A substantial bet for me is $50. If I played this amount on previous positive count and won, I would not pull back bet until loss. It would look bad if I just won a $50 and reduced my bet to $10 the next round because the count went down. I keep betting $50 until I lose and then return to my $10/15 bet and wong out if continued decline. How would you handle this play?


    if $50 is a big bet, I would probably bet according to the count exactly. Cover is not needed unless you are playing in a "sawdust joint"... On the strip, $50 won't get you noticed and will barely get you comps... At the MGM they won't take your player's card unless you are at a $25 min table...

    so forget cover at that betting level and bet accurately...
  • Can you have an edge with flat betting if you used all the indices in the world? Is it possible in a 6-deck game?

    Also, on related note, what counting system would give you the best PE? Is there a table somewhere of all the counting systems, the BE & PE?
  • FunkyChicken said:
    Can you have an edge with flat betting if you used all the indices in the world? Is it possible in a 6-deck game?


    Not in a 6-deck game. In a single-deck game you can get a tiny advantage by using lots of indices, but not in multi-deck.

    FunkyChicken said:
    Is there a table somewhere of all the counting systems, the BE & PE?


    Here's a list of some of the popular counting systems and their stats:

    http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm

    The highest PE a single-parameter count will get is about 0.70. Multi-parameter systems are very difficult and not really worth the effort.

    -Sonny-
  • FunkyChicken said:
    Can you have an edge with flat betting if you used all the indices in the world? Is it possible in a 6-deck game?

    Also, on related note, what counting system would give you the best PE? Is there a table somewhere of all the counting systems, the BE & PE?


    In theory you can gain an advantage flat betting a shoe game.

    -backcount until you have an advantage....bet $10 and never play a single hand when you don't have an advantage. Not very practical and not possible if you rely on indices alone to get to some advantage.

    I'll take even money in the above insurance question because the dealer 10 probability was determined before the cards were dealt.
  • Think you are wrong on the insurance. Let's assume you know there are 5 ten's left in the deck. If you see them all dealt out, you wouldn't take insurance. The insurance play is how likely, based on all the cards you have seen to the present, is the dealer to have a 10 underneath? Its gotta be done with as much information as possible -- meaning after the cards are all dealt out.

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