rogue1 said:What I meant to ask is this: What are the odds that I'll bust if I hit a hard 15 or 16?
Sorry for the confusion.
NYB said:But your chances of winning the hand increase by you taking the hit in every situation you describe. Thats really the important statistic.Standing on those hands will cost you a good bit more than hitting them in the long run.
Ray said:I think that you must say the probability to break with 15 is 54.1. The reason for that is if you draw an ace the 15 is now history. Futhermore, you can not assume that a player, counter or basic, will hit 16 if he drew an ace. The index for a counter is +1r for 16. He may or may not hit. The basic player may or may not hit 16 because of the rule of 45 or some other board knowledge. Some possible no hit situations are:
10,5,A
4,6,5,A
4,10,A,A
5,4,6,A
5,5,5,A
The most likely hand is 10,5 vs 10. If he gets an ace, he stands... otherwise busts.
Now, if you say, I'm going to make a hand or bust. What is the probability that I will bust with a starting hand of 15? That's different....
jimpenn said:Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?
jimpenn said:Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?
jimpenn said:Would any of the forum AP's hit a 16 verses 10 if the count was -8? I would think they all would, or am I missing something?
jimpenn said:SSRat..."I don't care about the small EV loss in negative counts."
Well, I sure do if I have a substantial bet out, especially when playing in AC.
FunkyChicken said:You could be in third base and the count is positive when the hand is dealt, but then goes very negative by the time its your turn to act. With six players, I could easily imagine a swing of 5 or 10. If you are in the last half of the last deck, that would double the count swing. Right?
FunkyChicken said:You could be in third base and the count is positive when the hand is dealt, but then goes very negative by the time its your turn to act. With six players, I could easily imagine a swing of 5 or 10. If you are in the last half of the last deck, that would double the count swing. Right?
FunkyChicken said:That's right, but if it gets to you, the playing decision should be based on the count at the time you are acting, not at the count at the time the hand was dealt. My only point was that it is possible for you to have a good size bet out on a hand when the count is negative (i.e. because it becomes negative as the hand is dealt).
jimpenn said:SSRat..A substantial bet for me is $50. If I played this amount on previous positive count and won, I would not pull back bet until loss. It would look bad if I just won a $50 and reduced my bet to $10 the next round because the count went down. I keep betting $50 until I lose and then return to my $10/15 bet and wong out if continued decline. How would you handle this play?
FunkyChicken said:Can you have an edge with flat betting if you used all the indices in the world? Is it possible in a 6-deck game?
FunkyChicken said:Is there a table somewhere of all the counting systems, the BE & PE?
FunkyChicken said:Can you have an edge with flat betting if you used all the indices in the world? Is it possible in a 6-deck game?
Also, on related note, what counting system would give you the best PE? Is there a table somewhere of all the counting systems, the BE & PE?
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