• I am getting ready to go back to the Casino and i have been researching kiss III.Dont grt me wrong i am not attacking Fred i am just trying to get my mind straight. This is Kiss III's betting strategy. For arguments sake i will use single deck.

    Kiss III My findings
    top=1u because 2 more small cards than big ones
    top=2u 20= 1u 1 more SMALL than BIG
    20 =2u 21=2u 1 more big than small
    21 =3u 22=3u 2 more big than small
    22 =4u 23=4u 3 more big than small

    Question is: Why would bet double off the top if you have 2 smaller cards than big ones, and why start raising bets at 20 if you still have 1 more small than big.
  • dyno, could you explain your abbreviations for the less learned of us. Didn't quite follow your post.
  • When i hit enter it ran together on me. Kiss three says when the count gets to 20 on single deck bet 2 units. If you count a single deck down at 20 you will have 1 more small card than an A/10.At 21 you have 1 more A/10 than a small card. First hand there are 2 more small cards than A/10 why double the bet?
  • Dyno -- Sorry, I don't quite follow your post, but let me clarify.
    You should indeed begin your KISS III running count at "18". If you're referring to the recommendation of beginning with a 2 unit bet, it's not because of an advantage, but for cover purposes. On the second round, unless the running count reaches "20", you should drop back to 1 unit.

    But when you do have a "20" count, you will have a "true count" of just about +2. That is, the unplayed cards will contain two more A/10's than little ones "per remaining deck". This will be so whether you're only five cards into the deck or 30 cards into it.

    In double deck and shoe games, you reach a true count of +2 when you're running count is "21" -- at all deck levels.

    Any other questions, feel free to post'em.
  • Okay i see where you are comming from off the top, but on a +20 i am counting 1 more little card than A/10's left in the deck.
  • Did hell just freeze over or did Renzey just agree with learningtocount that betting bigger on the first hand in the shoe is a good cover?
  • I don't believe Hell froze over,then again perhaps it did. No,wait a minute,maybe it's just that Fred has picked up a few pointers from learningtocount.There ya' go.
  • Dyno -- Remember that KISS (along with Red 7 and KO) is an unbalanced count. That is, there are more low cards in its count structure than high cards. But to break down a deck and evaluate whether the remaining cards give you an advantage, you want to look at the remaining tally of an equal number of low ranks vs. high ranks. So to recognize an edge with KISS III, you should ignore the black deuces. Then you'd be comparing the remaining number 3's thru 7's vs. the 10's thru Aces.

    Let's go over your example. In order for the running count to get from "18" to "20", two more little cards have to come out than big ones. If you're exactly halfway thru a single deck, you will had to have removed 12 black deuces thru 7's and only 10 Aces thru 10's to get to "20" (neglecting the 8's and 9's). That will leave in the pack 10 black deuces thru 7's against 10 Aces thru 10's -- and that total includes an odd black deuce (the unbalanced card). So rank for rank, there is in fact one more high card in the remaining pack than low cards. And with a half deck left, that's a true count of +2.
    If the count were to hit "20" right after the first two cards were dealt off the top, there would be all 20 high cards remaining vs. 20 black deuces thru 7's --including 2 odd black deuces. So this time rank for rank, there would remain 20 highs vs. 18 lows. And with virtually one deck remaining, that again is a true count of +2.
    It's trickier to understand the inner mechanics of an unbalanced count than a balanced one. But it's easier to put to effective use.

    Funky -- It's true, in my book I recommend coming off the top in single and double deck play with a 2 unit wager for cover purposes. In the shoe game, I recommend 1 or 2 units off the top. In my own actual play, I usually bet 2 units off the top of the shoe, making it a point to place my bet before the dealer starts shuffling so that it's in full view for that 90 seconds or so. Remember with a six deck shoe that you'll get in about 20 rounds per shoe, so where that's concerned only 5% of your bets are modestly increased at a neutral count. If I've finished up the previous shoe with some moderate spreading of say, 1-to-6 units, I'll stack 4 units up there at the beginning of the shuffle, then trim it down to 2 units just as the burn card is hitting the discard tray. If I finished up the shoe with maximum bets, I'm usually gone.
  • I can easily see how the first sign of a counter is betting big at the end of a deck and then 1 unit at the start, so it makes sense cover-wise. The question, though, is how much EV you are losing by doing that. Presumably more than some of the more conservative cover plays (16 v. 10 as an example).
  • Dam looks like my #'s got all fouled up. But this is the way you learn and undertsand. Everyone keeps talking about heat i have never gotton any where i play at Tunica mainly at the Fitz.
  • FunkyChicken said:
    I can easily see how the first sign of a counter is betting big at the end of a deck and then 1 unit at the start, so it makes sense cover-wise. The question, though, is how much EV you are losing by doing that. Presumably more than some of the more conservative cover plays (16 v. 10 as an example).

    If you are playing a .19ha DD game then assume you will lose .19% of all money wagered off the top. On a $100 bet you would lose 19 cents. So it costs you near nothing for some decent cover. I'm not convinced how well this really works since i've been booted several times. Once in a while I will throw my max bet out of the top, but then i will bet one or two units off the top the next few shoes. This is only done in good double deck games heads up or with one other player.
  • In a shoe game if you spread 1-to-10 units, your averaged bet size will work out to just about 2.0 units per bet, and your EV with a solid count system might be +0.75%. Now if you get in 20 rounds per shoe and decide to bet 2 units off the top every time at say, -0.50%, that'll bring your averaged bet size to 2.05 units and your overall EV down to +0.737%.
  • That makes sense. Its not the total loss in EV for that hand that should be looked at, but across the entire deck. Thanks.
  • Okay one more time. At a count of 20 A/10 and little cards are even. Why increase the bet at this point?
  • Dyno -- At a KISS III running count of "20", the A/10's vs. little cards are not even! With a single deck, you start at "18" off the top of a full pack which contains four cards of every rank -- a neutral count. That's when five ranks of high cards (Aces and 10's) total 20; two fewer than the five-and-a-half ranks of small cards (3's, 4's, 5's, 6's, 7's and black deuces) that you happen to be tracking (which total 22). Nevertheless, bear in mind that the deck is "even" at this point. It's just that you're tracking an unbalanced number of low cards vs. high cards -- hence the term, "unbalanced count".

    Now if the running count gets to "20" very early on, two more of those 22 low cards will had to have come out than those 20 high cards. So, if the first two cards off the top were say, a 6 and the deuce of clubs, your running count would be "20". And at this moment, there would be 20 of your 22 monitored low cards remaining, but all 20 of your monitored high cards. Notice that there are actually two honest-to-goodness low cards missing from the pack while all the high cards are still there. And since there is practically an entire deck of cards left, the actual count is "+2 per deck", or "+2 true".
    Now if you went halfway thru the deck and a perfectly equal distribution of cards happened to come out; that is, two of every rank in the entire deck, your running count would actually be "19". That would be "normal", or "neutral", or "even" at that point. But if your count were "20', then that would have to mean that one extra small card came out, over and above equal. And with a half deck left, that is again an actual count of "+2 per deck", or "+2 true".
    So in single deck with a count of "20", there are always two more high cards per deck in the remaining pack than low cards. That's a +2 true count and is why you raise your bet.
    In double deck, six deck or eight deck play, you always reach a +2 true count when your running count is "21".
    Hope this does it for you.

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