How you win and lose
  • Was reading thru the Gamemaster site this AM and had some thoughts about how unpredictable BJ can be.

    According to the Gamemaster, you should win about 60-65% of your sessions if you have an edge and that seems about right. Generally, if we are on a trip or have played quite a bit in the last couple of weeks we know if we are up or down, but there is more to it than that.

    - You can win 60-65% and still lose a good chunk of money.
    - Also, you may win big with just 45-50% of your sessions.
    - You can play something close to even with either one of the two.

    Everyone, even if you don't have an edge, has seen these results. "Chunks" is the best word that describes winning and losing. Big losing chunks, like losing your session bank two days in a row can skew things in the negative real quick. Or, how about those sessions where you can't do much wrong and end up playing black and/or purple for an exceptional win.

    Win goals and/or loss limits will not fit this reality. It's no wonder that Qfit's sims show a reduction in win rate with these strategies.
  • If you, like most mere humans tend to quit earlier when you're modestly ahead, but will try to put on a drive when moderately stuck, your session win rate will increase considerably -- but not your bottom line. A friend who plays 700 hours per year manages to maintain a 75% session win rate, but is happy to leave after 40 minutes if the first positive shoe turns out well. Yet he'll stay four hours if stuck, but is within striking distance.
  • Can a patient and tireless player win by wonging exclusively in AC? In and out day after day.
  • you can win by wonging in almost any non-CSM game. But with 8 deckers, the + counts are not so frequent, which means more counting and less playing. And you have to play during non-crowded times to be able to wong in the first place, further limiting your potential playing time..
  • Renzey said:
    If you, like most mere humans tend to quit earlier when you're modestly ahead, but will try to put on a drive when moderately stuck, your session win rate will increase considerably -- but not your bottom line. A friend who plays 700 hours per year manages to maintain a 75% session win rate, but is happy to leave after 40 minutes if the first positive shoe turns out well. Yet he'll stay four hours if stuck, but is within striking distance.

    that been my experience. i've put in a lot of sessions in that manner. usually i'll suspend play if i win near an hours standard deviation above my expectation. it does increase the number winning sessions but not the bottom line as you say. being a mear human i find psychological solace in the more winning sessions than loser.
    i believe it's a harmless enough tact as long as one doesn't quit play when the count in positive.

    best regards,
    mr fr0g
  • Ray:

    I have always understood the point about "win/loss" limits. The only limits of merit are based upon scoring irrespective of bankroll position. What is of value to noobs is that only holds true for Advantage Players that keep score. For Basic there are NO quit-points based upon score, as one is not keeping score. That being said, one can look at the variance of Basic strategy being 1.3 and use that as an initial set of quit points. Take the table stakes and multiply by... or divide by 1.3 and use as QP's.

    In this way, the table stakes are always at a certain Risk of Ruin and allowed to vary in accordance of the 'average' of the game before quitting. The phrase 'a gambler's share' comes to mind.

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