The Edge..The Game, etc
  • If you count cards and do most everything else right, you have a theoretical edge when you arrive at the casino. Play long enough and your results will reflect that edge, but not necessarily tonight or the following day.

    Shoe games will test your belief in this proposition as well as your patience and tolerance for BR fluctuations. Shoe after shoe seems to swing a little one way or another, a little negative then a little positive with little or no bet opportunities. Needless to say, your BR is being slowly depleted by the very nature of six or more deck games. They tend to average out over time to something not much better than nothing. Some count systems even based their method on this primise (OPP). Little wonder that a large bet spread is unavoidable, if you expect to overcome this built-in characteristic.

    I think getting to the long run in shoe games is especially hard if you don't take advantage of the better methods. Strict proportional betting with a big enough BR that inturn supports a larger spread via a proven strategy seems to be a must from my experience. Over the last 2.5 years I've altered the way I play:

    - I'm not a strict Kelly bettor, but not far from it most of the time.
    - Backcounting to some degree, dictated by what is practical.
    - Playing two for spread purposes coupled with some degree of backcounting.
    All of which depends on casino conditions (my big grip with todays game).
    - Added DD because of casino conditions and availability (not an easy task if you have not played pitch games for 15 yrs.).

    So, lacking anything else to talk about, I thought I'd talk about how I play. You may see and play things differently....
  • Ray said:Play long enough and your results will reflect that edge, but not necessarily tonight or the following day

    Sure enough! That variance is going to get you sooner or later (or both!). But there is some comfort to be had with knowing the likelihood and magnitude of those swings. Here’s a link to a recent post of mine that discusses some of the ways to put a tangible number on the “luck” we all expect:

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891

    Ray said:I think getting to the long run in shoe games is especially hard if you don't take advantage of the better methods.

    I completely agree, and your post covers some of the most important aspects. I cover a few more in one of my other posts:

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4833

    As you said, backcounting and proportional betting are two of the biggest factors. Game selection is also a crucial but often overlooked (or ignored) aspect..


    -Sonny-

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