You guys should read some books on gambling
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You guys should read some books on gambling. Some good examples is Allan N Wilson. book "The Casino Gamblers Guide" offers an excellent treatment of risk-reward and chance of ruin in an unfair game while trying to double a bankroll. The basic concept is this: If the game is unfair (you have the edge) than the more unfair the game is, the less chance of ruin in an attempt to double the bank. A bankroll can be apportioned in such a way to virtually eliminate the chance of ruin while continuing to double the bank. Returns of 2% or more per year are easily attainable if the game is proportionately unfair and the player continues to raise the bet as he double his bank.
The greatest books I ever read on counting cards in blackjack didnt tell the readers how to manage money. Without this tool, the book is worthless. There are many counting systems that make money. A player must know how to gamble with what money he has.
I believe Wilsons book is out of print. It is indeed a magnificent book; I have a copy. Another good one is Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic by Richard Epstein. This may also be out of print.
However, when you have a system that gives an edge you are assuming that when your system is winning, it will keep winning -- that a good call predicts another good call. You must test this statistically; In other words, proper selection of bet size (fraction of bankroll) is required to have a long term edge. As you double the bankroll you double the unit size and continue playing. Actually you are using the same bank/unit ratio related to your edge but now you are playing with double unit. When you double the second time you again double your previous unit or actually quadruple your starting unit.
You start with $10,000 and playing $25 units (400 unit bank) betting by the TC. When you double 10K into 20K your unit become $50 and continue (still 400 unit bank). Bank becomes 40K and unit $100 (still 400 unit bank). Bank 80K unit $200, , Bank 120K unit $300 .. This will approximately be 1000 hours of play per year. If you want to go over that you are free to keep doubling the unit as you double the bank. I can tell you this from my experience that it takes about 200-250 hours to double a 400 units bank if you have a 1% edge and two unit average bet. If you have more edge, you can make more money by doubling the bank and unit sooner. -
Alex- Both books are available from Amazon. I have one. Also, If you google Kelly betting there is an interesting abstract of a paper given by Thorp. In short, there is plenty of information available if one just looks.
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Hi Ray,
I’m familiar how Kelly works. You bet optimal (edge*bank*0.75) or something like that. For my everyday play I use the old school method that is to double the unit as you double the bank. That way I don’t have to mess with numbers in between. Sometimes your bank will be such that if you divide 400 into you’ll get a decent unit to play with. So you play with that unit as long you’re still within range (upper and lower limit of bank). Your ROR is the same when your max bet is $125 while playing with $25 unit vs. when you max bet is $5,000 while playing with $1,000 unit. Makes no difference as long casino take the action. When I reach the upper units like over $500 chip than I probably use some heavy camouflage like combining progression or letting the bet ride after winning the previous hand.
The bigger the unit the less edge I need to make decent money. If I play with $1,000 chip than 0.50% edge is acceptable for me. That small edge gives me about $1,500/hour on $3,000 average bet. What’s wrong with that?
The basic idea is to increase the unit as your bankroll gets bigger maintaining the same bank/unit ratio of about 400. -
I believe it is this:
bet = edge * bank / variance (about 1.3 for bj)
if you want an accurate number. Of course it has to be rounded/truncated to the nearest rational amount to bet, which will change things a bit. -
There is more to the simple math that is use to define bets in relation to BR.
As one writer put it; "You want win", etc, unless you have a good grip and tolerance for variance, the number one killer of would be winners.
Kitchen table planning of a blackjack strategy is much like some type of project planning at work or new backyard modification at home. You need to consider all the elements and possibilities. The idea is to reduce the risk of a wrong-headed effort, call it ROR management.
It's the confidence level that is acquired from a good, well thought-out plan that protects us from the physiological pitfalls when things deviate drastically from the mean/norm. -
Grifter- Well "Buck", you've got to be feeling good. Winning money at poker and not to mention being #1, while us all-so-rans suffer thru another season.
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Ray said:There is more to the simple math that is use to define bets in relation to BR.
As one writer put it; "You want win", etc, unless you have a good grip and tolerance for variance, the number one killer of would be winners.
Kitchen table planning of a blackjack strategy is much like some type of project planning at work or new backyard modification at home. You need to consider all the elements and possibilities. The idea is to reduce the risk of a wrong-headed effort, call it ROR management.
It's the confidence level that is acquired from a good, well thought-out plan that protects us from the physiological pitfalls when things deviate drastically from the mean/norm.
I agree. That's what causes me to choke up when I read posts from AlexD30. He continually advises people to overbet their bankroll, and bends statistics to prove it is the right thing to do... -
stainless steel rat said:I agree. That's what causes me to choke up when I read posts from AlexD30. He continually advises people to overbet their bankroll, and bends statistics to prove it is the right thing to do...
Honestly, It seems to me that some players really don’t give them a chance to win in this game. It doesn’t take to be a scientist to beat this game. Even the 6:5 single deck or the Super Fun 21 played with two or six decks could be beaten for big money. The real problem is if you know how to do it.
It does not take millions of simulated hands to determine if your method of play can beat a certain game. You can figure in 500 hands if you can beat the game or not. If much more than 500 seem to be necessary to resolve the issue, it is possibly that is such a close case that it really is not essential to know which is a better course of action. If you can get ahead in $$ after 500 hands in any of the above games than you definitely have a winning system. On the other hand, if you can not show a profit after 500 hands than you probably should forget about BJ and give up casino play.
You talking about; I advise people to over bet the bankroll?
How about if you won today $5,000 and tomorrow go out and buy yourself a $2,000 set of clothes. Is that you overbet your bankroll and lost the last $2,000? Or, is your bankroll now after spending the last 2K in jeopardy than before? What is the difference besides having a new suit now compared with betting 2K from your 5K profit pile on the next positive count when you have edge?
If you play the "bad" game of BJ 6:5 and bet 10:1 ratio by over betting the profit pile and still cannot have a substantial profit after 500 hands you are not a pro. -
AlexD30 said:Honestly, It seems to me that some players really dont give them a chance to win in this game. It doesnt take to be a scientist to beat this game. Even the 6:5 single deck or the Super Fun 21 played with two or six decks could be beaten for big money. The real problem is if you know how to do it.
It does not take millions of simulated hands to determine if your method of play can beat a certain game. You can figure in 500 hands if you can beat the game or not. If much more than 500 seem to be necessary to resolve the issue, it is possibly that is such a close case that it really is not essential to know which is a better course of action. If you can get ahead in $$ after 500 hands in any of the above games than you definitely have a winning system. On the other hand, if you can not show a profit after 500 hands than you probably should forget about BJ and give up casino play.
You talking about; I advise people to over bet the bankroll?
How about if you won today $5,000 and tomorrow go out and buy yourself a $2,000 set of clothes. Is that you overbet your bankroll and lost the last $2,000? Or, is your bankroll now after spending the last 2K in jeopardy than before? What is the difference besides having a new suit now compared with betting 2K from your 5K profit pile on the next positive count when you have edge?
If you play the "bad" game of BJ 6:5 and bet 10:1 ratio by over betting the profit pile and still cannot have a substantial profit after 500 hands you are not a pro.
That proves to me that the old adage of "if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters, one of them will eventually produce Lincoln's Gettysburg address perfectly..."
What does buying a $2000 suit _one_ time have to do with overbetting that $5K bankroll more than once? Answer: nothing. If you have a $5000 B/R, and you continually make $2K bets, your RoR is 100%. And it won't take long...
So, as usual, I miss the point about buying clothes... -
stainless steel rat said:That proves to me that the old adage of "if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters, one of them will eventually produce Lincoln's Gettysburg address perfectly..."
What does buying a $2000 suit _one_ time have to do with overbetting that $5K bankroll more than once? Answer: nothing. If you have a $5000 B/R, and you continually make $2K bets, your RoR is 100%. And it won't take long...
So, as usual, I miss the point about buying clothes...
Simpley, as long as you win every time you go to the casino, your ROR is 0, spending your winnings on a suit or whatever is absolutely no problem, because you always win.
For those of us not capable of winning everytime, the ROR is 100% but you got a nice suit.
ihate17 -
AlexD30 said:You can figure in 500 hands if you can beat the game or not.
Please, PLEASE tell me you meant to say 500 hours, not 500 hands. Otherwise I will spend the rest of the day laughing uncontrollably! The variance on 500 hands is still huge. I would love to see a BJ game with a N0 of 125 hands, but it aint gonna happen.
AlexD30 said:If much more than 500 seem to be necessary to resolve the issue, it is possibly that is such a close case that it really is not essential to know which is a better course of action.
Do you have any idea what the standard error on a 500 hand sim is? Were not even talking about decimal places here, were talking about whole numbers! I would think that the difference between a 10% EV and a +10% EV would be essential.
AlexD30 said:On the other hand, if you can not show a profit after 500 hands than you probably should forget about BJ and give up casino play.
Heck, John Patrick can easily show a profit after 500 hands! Does that make him a pro? Ken Uston was still in the red after playing full time for much longer than that. Should he have given up?
AlexD30 said:If you play the "bad" game of BJ 6:5 and bet 10:1 ratio by over betting the profit pile and still cannot have a substantial profit after 500 hands you are not a pro.
Im a little confused here. Are you saying that a 10:1 bet spread can beat the 6:5 games? Unless you are Wonging you wont get very far. And even then you will stick out like a sore thumb.
And whats this about overbetting your profit pile? This sounds similar to the fallacy of playing with the houses money to me. Are you suggesting that players overbet the profit from their positive fluctuations? What happens when they hit a negative swing and give it all back twice as fast? This is similar to always spending your winnings and never reinvesting anything back into your bankroll. Eventually you will go broke. Thats a 100% chance.
-Sonny- -
ihate17 said:Simpley, as long as you win every time you go to the casino, your ROR is 0, spending your winnings on a suit or whatever is absolutely no problem, because you always win.
For those of us not capable of winning everytime, the ROR is 100% but you got a nice suit.
ihate17
Unfortunately for me, I'm not capable of winning every time. In fact, I can't even count on being ahead after AlexD30's "500 hands". At a shoe game, heads up, that can be less than 5 hours. More crowded and it can be 10 hours. I've played _far_ longer than that, in the hole. Perhaps I don't know what I'm doing. :) -
AlexD30 said:Honestly, It seems to me that some players really dont give them a chance to win in this game. It doesnt take to be a scientist to beat this game. Even the 6:5 single deck or the Super Fun 21 played with two or six decks could be beaten for big money. The real problem is if you know how to do it.
It does not take millions of simulated hands to determine if your method of play can beat a certain game. You can figure in 500 hands if you can beat the game or not. If much more than 500 seem to be necessary to resolve the issue, it is possibly that is such a close case that it really is not essential to know which is a better course of action. If you can get ahead in $$ after 500 hands in any of the above games than you definitely have a winning system. On the other hand, if you can not show a profit after 500 hands than you probably should forget about BJ and give up casino play.
You talking about; I advise people to over bet the bankroll?
How about if you won today $5,000 and tomorrow go out and buy yourself a $2,000 set of clothes. Is that you overbet your bankroll and lost the last $2,000? Or, is your bankroll now after spending the last 2K in jeopardy than before? What is the difference besides having a new suit now compared with betting 2K from your 5K profit pile on the next positive count when you have edge?
If you play the "bad" game of BJ 6:5 and bet 10:1 ratio by over betting the profit pile and still cannot have a substantial profit after 500 hands you are not a pro.
Huh??????? -
Bojack1 said:Huh???????
Before you come to _this_ forum you better wrap your head in duct tape... Your head might explode otherwise. :) -
stainless steel rat said:Unfortunately for me, I'm not capable of winning every time. In fact, I can't even count on being ahead after AlexD30's "500 hands". At a shoe game, heads up, that can be less than 5 hours. More crowded and it can be 10 hours. I've played _far_ longer than that, in the hole. Perhaps I don't know what I'm doing. :)
LOL!..
Are you trying to tell us that you sometimes play in the hole for over 500 hands? – Are you playing by the count and betting how the TC tells you to bet?- (TC=2 bet=2, TC=4 Bet=4 and so on …?) – If that’s the case, no wonder you cannot come up from the hole and have a profit in 500 hands. My suggestion to you is keep playing the way you do because it seems to me you are looking for fun and not for making money.
Defending myself is a waste of time and energy, especially when I’m not the source of the problem. Very soon some of you guys will realize what the heart of the matter truly is.
Betting the profit pile? - "If I'm going to walk on thin ice, I might as well dance!" - That is betting from profit pile all the way to the table limit when you have any edge.
Good Luck! -
stainless steel rat said:Unfortunately for me, I'm not capable of winning every time. In fact, I can't even count on being ahead after AlexD30's "500 hands". At a shoe game, heads up, that can be less than 5 hours. More crowded and it can be 10 hours. I've played _far_ longer than that, in the hole. Perhaps I don't know what I'm doing. :)
None of us are Alex. In my first 5 years of counting, I lost in 3 of them, but now that I have been doing this for 29 years, winning in 9 of the past 10 (yes, you can have a losing year), averaging well over 20K a year as a recreational player (maybe 300 or so hours), should I have given up?
As far as 500 hands goes, it is absolutely nothing. On a casino trip, I will easily play more than 500 hands in a day. A days results means nothing. We have all witnessed horrible players, players who must be giving the house a 4% edge and yet they win for a day or a week. The casino bosses understand this and market this. They love to see a weak player win because they know they will get it all back and more eventually.
Anyway, some people come to these forums and do serve a purpose. They stir things up, get threads going and keep the forum lively. That is Alex's purpose here.
ihate17 -
AlexD30 said:LOL!..
Are you trying to tell us that you sometimes play in the hole for over 500 hands? Are you playing by the count and betting how the TC tells you to bet?- (TC=2 bet=2, TC=4 Bet=4 and so on ?) If thats the case, no wonder you cannot come up from the hole and have a profit in 500 hands. My suggestion to you is keep playing the way you do because it seems to me you are looking for fun and not for making money.
Yep. I play _exactly_ by the count, except on occasions where a bit of "cover" is necessary. I don't bet by "feel". Or by "the flow of the cards". Or by any progression nonsense. And yes, I have been stuck for _way_ over 500 hands played. Doesn't happen that often, but it happens. I know counters that have been stuck for 20K hands (played over the better part of a year.) If you don't suffer through that, you are simply a legend in your own mind. And so far out in left field, you are completely out of the stadium. Perhaps even off the planet.
Defending myself is a waste of time and energy, especially when Im not the source of the problem. Very soon some of you guys will realize what the heart of the matter truly is.
Betting the profit pile? - "If I'm going to walk on thin ice, I might as well dance!" - That is betting from profit pile all the way to the table limit when you have any edge.
Good Luck!
With a guaranteed RoR of 100%. No thanks, I prefer to actually beat the casinos when I play, not just throw money into their vault.
Your "advice" is worthless. I only hope the newbies realize that before getting burned to the ground following foolish advice.
For any specific game, rules, and counting system, and bankroll, there is _one_ optimal betting ramp. Not dozens. Exactly one. You can invest in Qfit software and discover exactly what this is for any game you play, and maximize your advantage. Or you can guess and go broke. I know what I do. I depend on CVCX/CVdata to attack the games I play optimally. I certainly won't rely on approximately 4.5 pounds of biological material that (in your case) appears to be dysfunctional at worst, and illogical at best.
Where do you come up with this stuff? Whatever medication you are on sure seems to have a psychological influence.
BTW if you don't see the difference between "walking on thin ice" and "dancing on thin ice" you have a short life expectancy if you live up north.
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