shy town 1st post
  • hello evreybody, I want to thank evreybody for this forum . Ive been a lurker (guest) for quite a while. Very informative reading . I'm getting serious about playing lately . there is only two casinos within 40 miles of me so I usually play at harrahs or empress. they are decent, stand on soft 17 good splits and double rules. Ive have BS strategy well in hand. From the extensive post reading I've been doing , I gather in the long run without advantage play of some kind. I will be a loser. My question, what I have been doing is this When I get off to a good start , things go fine and I am not greedy or try not to be, with good money management, I ride the streak out. 10-15$ tables). when things turn I quit immedetly, and walk with profit. Usually between 20- 130 $ profit. If I loose 4 hands in a row i leave witch minamizes my down side. doing this at least in the short turn 2-3 months. 3 times weekly. I am on the plus side. To you senior members,or anybody very experienced. Does this sound like a good strategy. shy town
  • Playing this way will not give you any advantage. You will still lose your money back in the long run. If you are just playing for fun then this system is not any worse than just playing BS.

    -Sonny-
  • The way you play now is very different than the way an advantage player plays, but I see nothing wrong with what you are doing because you are a basic strategy player. You are playing a negative expectation game and over time you just have no way to defeat the house advantage built into the game. Based on that, the less you play (leaving after losing 4 hands, win/loss limits and other similar money management strategies will pull you away from playing at a negative edge. Less hands means less money lost.

    Once you learn to count, you will find that losing 4 hands in a row might just be a money making opportunity. To explain: If the hands are being lost in a situation where the dealer is making 5 and 6 card 21's, you might just find a very favorable count and fewer players at your table. Since the flow of the cards is purely a myth, the only thing that effects your future hands is the composition of the cards already. If you have the advantage on the next hand, expliot it even if you have been losing.

    Once you learn to count and play good games, win limits will no longer exist (loss limits always exist because you could lose everything you have with you). You would now hold an advantage over the casino and just as the casino makes its money by playing as many hands as possible, so will you.

    ihate17
  • Thanks for the advice, point taken and understood. And that being said (read actually), I know this subject has been hashed out over and over but to lay my foundation for counting , what should be my base system to start with, so I can build evreything off that? Six deck shoes 95% of the time. If that matters at all. Is the time I need to invest worth the reward? Its just that I read all these posts about good counters that get hammered. Dont misunderstand me. I understand varience. so you can get a 2%advantage mabye. I think to become profecient I'll need what a solid year of work before it will really payoff, correct? Is that 2% going to reap 2000$ a month or so playing consistintly. shytown
  • shytown said:
    Thanks for the advice, point taken and understood. And that being said (read actually), I know this subject has been hashed out over and over but to lay my foundation for counting , what should be my base system to start with, so I can build evreything off that? Six deck shoes 95% of the time. If that matters at all. Is the time I need to invest worth the reward? Its just that I read all these posts about good counters that get hammered. Dont misunderstand me. I understand varience. so you can get a 2%advantage mabye. I think to become profecient I'll need what a solid year of work before it will really payoff, correct? Is that 2% going to reap 2000$ a month or so playing consistintly. shytown


    Shytown: If you enjoy playing blackjack, still enjoy it even after all the hard work you do to become a counter, and also enjoy being able to beat a casino at their own game, then it will be worth it.
    Can you take a serious beating when the odds favor you, sure you can but the question is, can you handle it? Only you can answer that.
    Will it take a year to become profecient? I can not answer that, I know that I have been doing this for about 30 years, but I lost in 3 of the first 5 years that I counted, but won in 9 of the past 10 and averaged making over $65 profit per hour.
    Can you make $2000 per month? Answering this, one would need to know how good the games are that you are playing, your average bet and the amount of hours that you would put in. One thing though is for sure even if you made that $2000 it would never be like an ATM machine. You might have a month where you made $8000, another making $5000 and a third where you lost $7000, and you would be averaging $2000. Such is the variance of the game.

    ihate17
  • ihate...you sure have a way with words. Nice post.

    Shytown, I was curious as to how many visits you made to casinos and left withing a half hour?
  • A simple answer- You're at a blackjack table, lose four in a row, then quit for five minutes because you have $150 profit.

    Question: Is that five minutes any different from two days', a week, or even a month or year?

    Question(2): If you start play after five minutes, isn't that the same as starting play the very next time you enter the casino?

    Here are (3) two hour sessions with time intervals between each session:

    XX(one day)XX(two days)XX(one day),etc

    Here is one six hour session:

    XXXXXX

    Is there any difference in results or expectations? I think not.......
  • I understand your post Ray, but does it hold true for exclusive backcounting?
  • Yes, but it does not matter when you quit as long as you understand that there is no advantage to be gained or lost. We all quit for many reasons.
  • jimpenn said:
    I understand your post Ray, but does it hold true for exclusive backcounting?



    I don't understand your question. Backcounting has you jumping in when the TC reaches some threshold (+1, +2, or whatever). You don't jump in until you have an advantage, but once you are in you can (a) stay in; (b) wong out if the TC drops below 0 (or whatever threshold you establish) or (c) quit when you lose X hands.

    (c) has nothing to do with backcounting or not. It is just an attempt to minimize losses. It does work, from one perspective. When you quit, you will not be playing for a bit, which keeps your money off the table (and for a non-card-counter that is a good thing since the game is always negative-expectation for such players). So even though the number of wins/losses is not affected by whether you play one session of 100 hands, or 25 sessions of 4 hands each, the time required for the latter is _much_ greater, which slows the rate at which the casino grinds your bankroll down.

    Otherwise, sessions are meaningless. You really just play one lifetime-long session and you get what you get. Regardless of how you chop it up into small groups of hands or large groups of hands.
  • yes, I am usually there a breif amount of time, my feeling was to always walk away a winner wether in be 20 or 150$. But I totally see where you guys or girls are coming from. I'm just being conservative, the more I understand the more at ease with longer sessions. Im starting to work on basic counting now 23456 +1 789 0 10s -1 aces -1 Is that a good foundation to build on? shy town
  • shytown said:
    Im starting to work on basic counting now 23456 +1 789 0 10s -1 aces -1 Is that a good foundation to build on? shy town


    That system is called the Hi-Lo count. It is a very simple and powerful system to use. It's sort of the industry standard in fact. It is a great place to start.

    -Sonny-
  • The book, Professional Blackjack, by Stamford Wong, is the best book you can easily purchase for someone using the Hi-Lo count. Indices and tables in the book are all based upon this count.

    ihate17
  • shytown said:
    hello evreybody, I want to thank evreybody for this forum . Ive been a lurker (guest) for quite a while. Very informative reading . I'm getting serious about playing lately . there is only two casinos within 40 miles of me so I usually play at harrahs or empress. they are decent, stand on soft 17 good splits and double rules. Ive have BS strategy well in hand. From the extensive post reading I've been doing , I gather in the long run without advantage play of some kind. I will be a loser. My question, what I have been doing is this When I get off to a good start , things go fine and I am not greedy or try not to be, with good money management, I ride the streak out. 10-15$ tables). when things turn I quit immedetly, and walk with profit. Usually between 20- 130 $ profit. If I loose 4 hands in a row i leave witch minamizes my down side. doing this at least in the short turn 2-3 months. 3 times weekly. I am on the plus side. To you senior members,or anybody very experienced. Does this sound like a good strategy. shy town


    You either bet minimum when you don't have edge and bet much more when you do have the edge or you wouldn't win in this game. Nothing else works. To do this you need card counting to know when you have edge for betting and to know when to deviate from basic strategy. You have to play index (Insurance, 16 vs. T, 15 vs. T, 12 vs. 2,3,4,5,6 and when NOT to double down)
  • what is the meaning of playing a negative exception game. shytown
  • shytown said:
    what is the meaning of playing a negative exception game. shytown


    When you are a basic strategy player or worse, you can not expect to win in the long run because the rules of the game have been designed not to be even between you and the casino, but have a casino advantage built in to them. A decent blackjack game will have a house edge of half a percent or less against a perfect basic strategy player (non basic strategy players would lose at a higher rate). So all casino games including blackjack are negative expectation games but because of the nature of blackjack it can be beaten by expert play, better known as cardcounting.
    The thing that makes blackjack beatable and a positive expectation game for a counter is that because they do not shuffle after each hand, the content of the remaining cards will change. If those remaining cards become heavy in aces and faces, the game will favor the player. The player will win on more of his double downs, splits, and blackjack will come more often and the player gets 3/2 on a natural while the house only gets 1/1.
    So who is favored in blackjack is constantly changing and a counter has the information to know just when it is in his favor and will raise his bets and play certain hands differently because of his knowledge of the remaining cards.

    In games like craps, the past rolls have no effect on the next roll. Who is favored (the house) always remains the same. Blackjack is different but for the non counter it does always remain a negative expectation game because even when the remaining cards favor him, he does not know this, so he can not take advantage of this.

    ihate17

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