Journey To Riches
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Hello, I am going to las vegas this summer either may june july or august. I am taking $5000 with me and hitting up 100 casinos. Hopefully bringing home $1million in two weeks. My plan is to win $10,000 at every casino in order to stay under the radar and so I wont have to claim taxes. My question is do they still have $10,000 as tax limit? Also my other question is my plan feasible? I'll be counting cards all the time. I haven't played blackjack for a year but still remember how to count cards. Just like riding a bike. Has anybody have any reasonable suggestions for me? Also has anybody been to Vegas recent? My last trip was about 4 years ago in 2002. It might have changed a lot since then. Any tips and suggestions much greatly appreciated.
P.S I know all the odds are and my plan seems feasible. -
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Hello, I am going to las vegas this summer either may june july or august. I am taking $5000 with me and hitting up 100 casinos. Hopefully bringing home $1million in two weeks. My plan is to win $10,000 at every casino in order to stay under the radar and so I wont have to claim taxes. My question is do they still have $10,000 as tax limit? Also my other question is my plan feasible? I'll be counting cards all the time. I haven't played blackjack for a year but still remember how to count cards. Just like riding a bike. Has anybody have any reasonable suggestions for me? Also has anybody been to Vegas recent? My last trip was about 4 years ago in 2002. It might have changed a lot since then. Any tips and suggestions much greatly appreciated.
P.S I know all the odds are and my plan seems feasible.
I almost hate to respond to this because it really just sounds like a joke post. But anyway my first suggestion is forget about winning a million dollars, period. That is not going to happen. Secondly if you haven't played in a year make sure you do a lot of practicing before you actually go. If you know all the odds than you should know your financial goal doesn't stand a chance. Just try to hang on to your bankroll and don't worry about the other stuff. And just in case you get lucky, at least in most of the major properties on the strip you can cash in under $3000 without even having to show ID. So all you have to do is cash in $2500 400 times and you'll have your million and nobody will be the wiser. -
that Bojack replied. :)
But that aside, you are going for two weeks? If you hustle, you might get in 12 hours of play a day, since you are going to have to move around a lot to hit 8+ casinos each day.
So you will play 12 * 12 (I assume the first and last days are travel and you won't play much) = 144 hours. If you are a card counter / shuffle-tracker, let's say you play to a 2% edge. That means that for each bet placed, you will win 2% on average. To win $1,000,000 in 144 hours = 8640 hands. Lets round that up to 10,000 hands total. So solve the equation
X * .02 * 10000 = 1,000,000 (you play 10K hands at a 2% edge, X = your average bet.)
X * .02 = 100
X = $5000.00
Your average bet has to be $5000 to win that million bucks. The problem is, your Risk of Ruin is 100%. And it won't be very long coming since your first average bet that loses will wipe you out. Even worse, if you play a shoe, your average bet is 2 units, while your big bet is at least 12 units and better at 20 units. You can't even make one big bet to start with.
The entire idea is completely insane. Your best bet would be to go to a roulette table, bet it all on Red, and let it ride until you get that $1000000 or go bust. You will have to find a store that will allow that last $500,000 bet, but they exist in Vegas.
Otherwise, come back down to planet earth and realize that a good two-week trip could double your bankroll with a bit of luck and very low risk of ruin. -
It can be done. Scotty beams you down into the cash room of several casinos and beams you back out. No need to even bother with blackjack, but bring a shot gun.
ihate17 -
Thanks for all the replies, yes, I've been practicing ever since I haven't gone to the casino. I plan on doing this still, and see what I can achieve.
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Joe - In 1975, after returning from my first vacation to Vegas, I read "Beat the Dealer" and decided I was going to save up a bankroll and be a card counter. I practiced playing at home using Hi/Lo for 100,000 hands - single deck, two deck and four deck. In my practice playing, I used a 1-to-3 spread in single deck, 1-to-5 in double deck and 1-to-8 in four deck play. I knew 80 index numbers and could count in my sleep. I knew what the various rules were worth and was familiar with current penetration practices. On my chart, I was way ahead.
I scraped together a $1500 bankroll and in '76 went out there alone for nine days. Back then, there were still $2 tables. Starting with $10 base units and descending to $2 base units as the losses mounted, I lost 375 base units in 65 hours and got off the plane back home with $6 in my pocket.
Although I was "green" in some practical areas, I still played a solid enough technical game to win -- yet lost my butt. Over the past 30 years, I've had a few additional negative streaks of similar magnitude -- one even a lot worse. But one thing I've never come close to doing in all those years is win 10,000 top bets -- which is basically what your asking to do. -
If you start with a $5 bet,and martingale your winnings,this can be done quite easily. All you need do is win less than 25 hands in a row somewhere along the way.
Don't let the bastards get you down.Go with Guts. -
NYB said:If you start with a $5 bet,and martingale your winnings,this can be done quite easily. All you need do is win less than 25 hands in a row somewhere along the way.
Don't let the bastards get you down.Go with Guts.
The casinos have a "martingale buster" already in place. It is called "table maximum". :) -
stainless steel rat said:The casinos have a "martingale buster" already in place. It is called "table maximum". :)
But as you people love to point out,your whole life is just one long session,so as he bumps into the max in one place,he jumps to the next. -
Hey Joe - Most of the guys that have responded to your post know what theyre talking about. Las Vegas is a great place if you have money in your pocket. But, if you go broke, it will be like doing time in prison.
Is the $5,000 youre taking with you, your bankroll or are your transportation, meals and lodging costs coming out of it? If this is your bankroll, then be smart with it. Allow yourself a budget of $400 per day so that it will last your entire trip. Use $200 for entertainment and the other $200 if used skillfully should get you some decent time on a $10 table. This way, win or lose, youll go home with an enjoyable experience.
Whatever you decide to do, have fun and let us know how you did. -
NYB said:But as you people love to point out,your whole life is just one long session,so as he bumps into the max in one place,he jumps to the next.
How is that a martingale? If you lose that 10K max, there's no place to go to place a 20K bet. -
Of course not, $5000 is separate. I got at least $2-$3k for all the
meals and hotel room. -
I am no normal card counter. I have been tested for Eidetic, I went to a doctor who specialized in it and says I have no normal memory but 150% memory and better.. Just up until last summer thats when I figured out I had it when I was sitting at a 4deck table, and I noticed the count automatically. So it is quite easy.. But it is really weird when I first started practicing 3 years ago when I first place I didn't even knew I had the ability. I got discouraged once, because I lost $400 on 3 hands. But the count was right and everything was right but shit just happens.. it was on a double down to. I split two aces and doubled down and the dealer made his hand. the count was like -3. muhuh but what can you do just go back and get the bastards.
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The replies you got from the people here are very true and would apply to almost all of us who have the skill. It doesn't matter how skillfull you are, as you said, shit happens. But one member also pointed out that what you aspire is not short of impossible. The main concern, I think, of those who posted seemingly discouraging replies, is to keep your feet on the ground and avoid that you experience a big disappointment if everything doesn't turn out as you planned and predict. If you aspire to go for a million bucks, go ahead sir. All the best luck to you. Please remember to have fun along the way though and make FUN the real essence of your trip. That way, you leave vegas, win or lose in the casinos, still a winner.
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Renzey said:Joe - In 1975, after returning from my first vacation to Vegas, I read "Beat the Dealer" and decided I was going to save up a bankroll and be a card counter. I practiced playing at home using Hi/Lo for 100,000 hands - single deck, two deck and four deck. In my practice playing, I used a 1-to-3 spread in single deck, 1-to-5 in double deck and 1-to-8 in four deck play. I knew 80 index numbers and could count in my sleep. I knew what the various rules were worth and was familiar with current penetration practices. On my chart, I was way ahead.
I scraped together a $1500 bankroll and in '76 went out there alone for nine days. Back then, there were still $2 tables. Starting with $10 base units and descending to $2 base units as the losses mounted, I lost 375 base units in 65 hours and got off the plane back home with $6 in my pocket.
Although I was "green" in some practical areas, I still played a solid enough technical game to win -- yet lost my butt. Over the past 30 years, I've had a few additional negative streaks of similar magnitude -- one even a lot worse. But one thing I've never come close to doing in all those years is win 10,000 top bets -- which is basically what your asking to do.
Fred
The problem was you are not "Mighty Joe Blackjack"!
The name says it all.
ihate17 -
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:I am no normal card counter. I have been tested for Eidetic, I went to a doctor who specialized in it and says I have no normal memory but 150% memory and better.. Just up until last summer thats when I figured out I had it when I was sitting at a 4deck table, and I noticed the count automatically. So it is quite easy.. But it is really weird when I first started practicing 3 years ago when I first place I didn't even knew I had the ability. I got discouraged once, because I lost $400 on 3 hands. But the count was right and everything was right but shit just happens.. it was on a double down to. I split two aces and doubled down and the dealer made his hand. the count was like -3. muhuh but what can you do just go back and get the bastards.
Mighty Joe
Some of us here, without fantastic memory, can sit at the table, glance quickly at all the cards and adjust our count without counting each card. For me it just came years ago after doing this for a long time.
You mentioned "shit happens" and it just about always does to some extent. Not long ago I was playing a double deck game with a huge advantage because I could see the dealers hole card just about every hand. Instead of the usual 1.5% edge I might get from counting, using hole card strategy designed not to be too obvious (you just can not hit 19 when you know the dealer has 20), I might have been playing at a 7% edge. Huge edge and they beat my butt, "shit happens". Hand after hand, even knowing what the dealer had, it seemed like I could just not win as the dealer had pat hands nearly everytime vs my stiffs and when it was reversed the dealer drew out.
Took a big loss but played the same dealer the next day and got it all back and then some but the point of this is that the variance of blackjack is tremendous. If you made a graph for each year I have played blackjack it would appear to be steadily going up with a few declines. It would look like a nice steady investment. But, if you graph it session by session it would look like a roller coaster ride, still overall heading up but with many a big dip mixed in.
ihate17 -
stainless steel rat said:How is that a martingale? If you lose that 10K max, there's no place to go to place a 20K bet.
If you read my post,I said martingale your winnings. If you lose your 10K bet,you start over at $5. -
NYB said:If you read my post,I said martingale your winnings. If you lose your 10K bet,you start over at $5.
What do you do when you run out of winnings (or never see any)? Flat bet?
-Sonny- -
Sonny said:What do you do when you run out of winnings (or never see any)? Flat bet?
-Sonny-
If you can come up with a better way of him turning $5,000 into $1,000,000 than letting his bets ride and hope he gets a monster winning streak before he goes broke,please post it.
If he can win 15 hands in a row,he can even put a reserve aside in case he loses his 16th. He'll have 1,000 shots at the million with his $5,000 BR.
Its certainly possible to do it. Unlikely as hell,but possible.I don't get tracks of my winning streaks but its certainly possible I've won that many hands in a row. -
ihate17 said:Mighty Joe
Some of us here, without fantastic memory, can sit at the table, glance quickly at all the cards and adjust our count without counting each card. For me it just came years ago after doing this for a long time.
You mentioned "shit happens" and it just about always does to some extent. Not long ago I was playing a double deck game with a huge advantage because I could see the dealers hole card just about every hand. Instead of the usual 1.5% edge I might get from counting, using hole card strategy designed not to be too obvious (you just can not hit 19 when you know the dealer has 20), I might have been playing at a 7% edge. Huge edge and they beat my butt, "shit happens". Hand after hand, even knowing what the dealer had, it seemed like I could just not win as the dealer had pat hands nearly everytime vs my stiffs and when it was reversed the dealer drew out.
Took a big loss but played the same dealer the next day and got it all back and then some but the point of this is that the variance of blackjack is tremendous. If you made a graph for each year I have played blackjack it would appear to be steadily going up with a few declines. It would look like a nice steady investment. But, if you graph it session by session it would look like a roller coaster ride, still overall heading up but with many a big dip mixed in.
ihate17
Eliot [the mayor] used to have a graph of his BJ bankroll on his web site before it went away. It was a pretty vivid image of what BJ play looks like. If you integrate over time, the slope was certainly positive. But it looked like a moonscape of mountains and valleys over any short-term interval you'd look at. Kind of like the stock market. Overall up, but there are horrible years... -
ihate17- BJ is very much like the market. It was a slow move up from Jan until a few days back. I lost every dollar I made in Jan & Feb in one day.
As for Mighty Joe, I suggest that he buy a round-trip plane ticket...... -
Ray said:ihate17- BJ is very much like the market. It was a slow move up from Jan until a few days back. I lost every dollar I made in Jan & Feb in one day.
As for Mighty Joe, I suggest that he buy a round-trip plane ticket......
But he is mighty Joe! My guess is if he can turn $5,000 into a million in his short time period, he has absolutely no need for a plane ticket.
Look up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's Mighty Joe Blackjack!
Actually if he goes to the roullette table and puts the $5,000 on a number and it hits and then finds one other bet that pays 6 to 1 and wins with the balance. He will save himself a lot of time and have more than his million.
ihate17 -
I don't know about the rest of you,but I certainly had delusions when I started out.I remember the day I "invented" the double up after every loss" theory.After a few hours of trying it out in the Ascot hotel,I proceeded to play it for real at Caesars AC and made $250 in less than two hours.Over dinner,I was imaging the type of house I would be buying.I'm fairly sure that had I been working,I'd have quit.Then reality set in. Hard.
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Could you figure out how long it would take to win $200,000 with a bankroll of $5k
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All I am worried about is the taxes, The reason why I had $10k per casino in mind is because I'm not sure what the limit is when they tax out for taxes or how much in the las vegas area. If anybody can answer please do thanks.
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Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Could you figure out how long it would take to win $200,000 with a bankroll of $5k
But I though you “knew all the odds are and my plan seems feasible.” :)
With a $5k bankroll your max bet will be about $30-$40 and you will expect to win about $12 per hour. That means it will take you about 16,667 hours to win $200,000. That’s almost 2 years of constant 24-hour play (assuming you never resize your bets). More realistically, that's 7.6 years of full-time play (6 hours each day without any days off). Your average hourly swings will be within +/-$300 and you should expect to play for at least 400 hours before you have a reasonable chance of being close to your EV.
If making a million dollars by counting cards with a small bankroll was that easy we would all me millionaires! Alas, most of us a still poor. In order to make that kind of money playing blackjack you will need a huge bankroll, a great act, lots of frequent flyer miles, and probably a few advanced techniques (and a team would be a huge help too).
-Sonny- -
NYB said:If you read my post,I said martingale your winnings. If you lose your 10K bet,you start over at $5.
Fine. But martingale says double on every loss until you win, then you start over. Anything else is not "martingale". This way you always win one unit per "streak". Unless the table max gets you, which it will. I don't see how "martingale your winnings" is going to guarantee anything except a certain RoR. -
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Could you figure out how long it would take to win $200,000 with a bankroll of $5k
Sure. Depending on the game, betting Kelly, you can double your bankroll at 20-40K hands. You want to double your bankroll just over 5 times. So a wild guess is around 200-220K hands total. At 100 hands per hour, 2,000 hours or so. But there is standard deviation at work here and it _could_ take far longer or far less time. Note that the above calculation, while "in the ballpark" is not a mathematically rigorous proof of what it will take...
BTW, Sonny: would he not be resizing as his bankroll climbs? When he gets to $100K for example, he wouldn't still be betting 30-40 max, for example. -
stainless steel rat said:BTW, Sonny: would he not be resizing as his bankroll climbs?
Hopefully he would, so your estimates are probably more realistic than mine. Then again, he's going to make $1,000,000 in two weeks so who knows what his plan is. I wouldn't want to make too many assumptions.
-Sonny- -
Sonny said:Hopefully he would, so your estimates are probably more realistic than mine. Then again, he's going to make $1,000,000 in two weeks so who knows what his plan is. I wouldn't want to make too many assumptions.
-Sonny-
Good point. :) -
stainless steel rat said:Fine. But martingale says double on every loss until you win, then you start over. Anything else is not "martingale". This way you always win one unit per "streak". Unless the table max gets you, which it will. I don't see how "martingale your winnings" is going to guarantee anything except a certain RoR.
Doubling after each win is called a reverse martingale.You double after each win,drop back when you lose.
Say you have a $500 BR,and wish to win $500. You bet $5 and double up.
1w-$5
2w-$10
3w-$20
4w-$40
5w-$80
6w-$160
7w-$320.
The chances of you doubling your BR using this in the short-run are better than flat betting.But,the odds of losing everything are much higher as well,so its all a matter of how much risk you are willing to take.MJY seems like a real gambling man,so he just might let it rip. -
Well, if MJY is really up to real gambling and pushing his luck in making a million (or more), then playing some keno or progressive slots on the side may give that. MJY, your $200,000 goal is more feasible for the 2 week playing spree. If you will have a continuous winning streak, it may even be achieved overnight. In my days as a dealer, year 1996 in Naga Resorts and Casino in Phnom Penh Cambodia specifically, there was this guy who used to come to our casino in a limousine and escorted by eight armed men in four motorcycles. He is one of our V.V.I.P.'s. He is so much of a gambler (he plays baccarat, btw, but am just setting him as an example regarding unbelievable luck) that he lost an estimate worth of US$15 million in 5-6 months. After he lost his last big money, he came in everyday still to our casino riding public transport, unescorted, with just $500-1,000 in hand to play. He still lost everyday for about 3 months or so until this particular day came. He started off early at 1pm with the usual $1k, betting flat at $25 per game. The losing streak continued till he was to his last $25 in less than an hour. He was kind of sweating profusely despite the fact that our airconditioning was in full blast as it was mid-afternoon. He changed tables and went to bet his last dough. From then on, he kept winning, doubling up his money every round. It didn't matter where he put his bet, player or banker, but he just kept winning until such time that he was already betting a flat bet of the table maximum every round. No round lost, I tell you, the Pit Bosses were having quite a stir as the guy was having his best day no matter what action they take. He hopped from table to table every shoe end going to bigger maximum limits and betting max. By 5pm he was up again to our VIP room with US$120k in hand. He played a $100k table max there and bet his $100k on player. It won! he flat betted the maximum for the whole shoe, losing only not less than 5 rounds. He was up to US$4 million by the time the shoe ended after just 6 hours of play. He then requested for a US$200k max limit. Naturally the Pit Bosses obliged. It was time they get back at the lucky bastard, they must've thought. To their surprise, the streak kept on till he called it a day around 2am. He took home US$17,600,000 overnight. Next day, the limousine was back and so are his armed escorts. He never lost that much again but didn't win much either after that. Great true story of luck I personally encountered. So MJY, with skill you got the edge yes. But nothing beats luck. You won't know that if you don't risk. I say you go for it. Quoting from the movie "The Pursuit of Happyness": "Don't let anyone tell you what you can't do."
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That is an interesting story. Unfortunately its the kind of story that creates problem gamblers. The mind of a gambler is that of only needing one sufficient win to get hooked. If they never ever won it would be much easier to never want to gamble again. But the feeling of that lucky big win is enough to fuel a lifetime of chasing the elusive big score again. The mindset being if it happened once it can happen again, which in theory is true. But in fact the gambler is set up for more misery and financial pain than anything. I'm not talking about counters and other AP's, just straight hoping for luck gamblers. There is a big difference. Most AP's remember their losses because there is so much calculating that goes into their play, its more of a real picture of whats occuring. Gamblers usually only choose to remember big wins because thats what fuels their fire. I couldn't imagine going the route of the gambler, but I will not lecture on those that do. Just be aware, for every big winner out there there are thousands more losers. Pure luck I believe is a curse, it can put you in a wonderful place, and then disappear never to be seen again. You cannot depend on it, nor can you predict it. As an AP you will still need some luck, but you are more in control of when you may get it. And if you don't you are still able to know the difference and that is the key to keeping yourself sane. Good Luck to those trying to win millions or even thousands on based on just luck, although it would be cheaper to play the lottery.
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Bojack1 said:Most AP's remember their losses because there is so much calculating that goes into their play, its more of a real picture of whats occuring.
Thats true. APs also keep detailed records of their play and are able to track their progress and see the big picture. Gamblers will often say I dont know exactly how much Ive won, but I think Im ahead. Unfortunately theyre usually wrong. They tend to forget or underestimate their losing sessions and focus on their wins. Most of the time their luck isnt nearly as good as they think it is.
-Sonny- -
Luck- The "fickle finger of fate" is a feel good trap. Rather like a jumble of meaningless numbers we call a positive progression. Regardless of age those childhood fantasies of hero are still there. The only thing missing is the towel for a cape. Responsibility tends to educate most, but some find the trap has no bottom..
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That is absolutely correct Bojack. But Mighty Joe Young has already declared himself a counter and a system player, definitely not a newbie. He is getting opinions whether his goal is feasible. I am just pointing out his chances when luck goes along in his favor. Statistically, in normal playing circumstances, MJY's goal is quite a far shot. Control is vital in every counter's game. With control, the goal of winning a million in two weeks is almost nearly impossible. But with skill and luck, it can be done. Just remember MJY, luck runs out but skill does not. It is still best to heed the advice of the many members here to keep your goals realistic and your play conservative. Only then will you leave Vegas with a win.
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Appetite said:That is absolutely correct Bojack. But Mighty Joe Young has already declared himself a counter and a system player, definitely not a newbie. He is getting opinions whether his goal is feasible. I am just pointing out his chances when luck goes along in his favor. Statistically, in normal playing circumstances, MJY's goal is quite a far shot. Control is vital in every counter's game. With control, the goal of winning a million in two weeks is almost nearly impossible. But with skill and luck, it can be done. Just remember MJY, luck runs out but skill does not. It is still best to heed the advice of the many members here to keep your goals realistic and your play conservative. Only then will you leave Vegas with a win.
The problem with Mighty Joe's goal is there is simply not enough time, and given his bankroll, will not get enough money on the table to reach his goals. Only if he were to play constantly and severely overbet his bankroll would he have a slim chance to reach his "conservative" goal of $200,000. To be honest thats not even close to a realistic goal for any AP given the circumstances of bankroll and time. With skill and luck you can win, you might even double your bankroll if your lucky, but that doesn't even fall into probable if you are betting in proportion to your bankroll and your advantage. With his bankroll I wouldn't have anymore than a $10 unit, and doing well he may be able to win 1 to 2 units per hour on average. Not quite what he had in mind but realistic with luck. Small money AP's are better off making short term goals based on accuracy of play, and making all money goals long term. Its just not a healthy way to go having money goals such short term given that much money. I wish him luck, but with his mindset right now his ROR is 100%. -
I spent about an hour practicing, about 98% I got 100% The other ones I got were 97% because basically I'm used to having the dealers tell you what your value of the cards are. and with those soft hands with Aces it makes it a harder but did very very well in the bonus rounds and also yes because of the mouse ...It was at difficult level, anybody have the same problems?
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Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Hello, I am going to las vegas this summer either may june july or august. I am taking $5000 with me and hitting up 100 casinos. Hopefully bringing home $1million in two weeks. My plan is to win $10,000 at every casino in order to stay under the radar and so I wont have to claim taxes.
You have no plan!
You can’t win a million playing blackjack the way you dream. If you bet strictly by the count you definitely cannot win 1M in two weeks trip. You have to have a real plan how to handle your bankroll. What I mean is that you need about 300 units of bank. Say, you have $7,500 that gives you 300 green chips. You bet by the true count. When you double your bankroll, that is when you have in hand $15,000, your unit becomes $50 and continue playing at that level. You try to double 300 units every time. Now, when your bank becomes $30K your unit becomes $100 …, etc
As a general rule, a winning player can double his 300 unit bank in about one month of full time play. It depends how big is your average bet and what game you play.
Let’s see:
month #1, bankroll = 7.5K, unit = $25
month #2, bankroll = 15K, unit = $50
month #3, bankroll = 30K, unit = $100
month #4, bankroll = 60K, unit = $200
month #5, bankroll = 120K, unit = $400
month #6, bankroll = 240K, unit = $800
month #7, bankroll = 480K, unit = $1600
month #8, bankroll = 960K, unit = $3200 (at the end of the 8th month you will have over 1M)
As you can see from the table above you will not be able to play over $800 unit because you have to spread at least 5:1 without reaching the table max. Here you have to be ready and emotionally prepared to bet $4000 when the count tells you to bet 5 units. And, more, you have to double down with another $4000 or get insurance for $2000 when the ration of non-tens/tens is bellow 2:1 .. etc. When your bankroll is 120K and your unit is $400 don’t think like you have $120,000 cash and be afraid to bet $400 in negative and go all the way up to $2000. Think you are risking $7,500 cash to reach 240K next month.
The best one can expect is 200-240K in 6 months starting from $25. This is only possible if you double the unit while doubling your bankroll along the way. Every month you try to double 300 units. Of course, you can increase the unit while maintaining the same ratio of bank/unit = 300 even before the month is over. Your risk is always the same regardless what unit you play. You have to be prepared losing $7,500 in order to have a shot of making quarter million in six month time. If you cannot double 300 units in 160 hours of play you are not ready for this.
So, what you need is to have all your expenses covered for the next 6 months and have 2 or 3 banks of 300 unit each. If you lose the first one from the get go try the second one. Once you double couple times you will never look back again. But you have to be willing to risk losing $7,500 in order to be in this type of play. If you can pull this thru one time you can take a long vacation and reflect how you did it. The next time will be obvious.
However, you can start with 400 unit bank. In this case you will need 10K cash seed bank. It will take you longer to double and reach the next betting level. Probably over 200 hours of play just to double once 400 units. Do the math and find out.
card counting + doubling the unit after doubling the bank = recipe for big scores. There is no other way. -
AlexD30 said:You have no plan!
You cant win a million playing blackjack the way you dream. If you bet strictly by the count you definitely cannot win 1M in two weeks trip. You have to have a real plan how to handle your bankroll. What I mean is that you need about 300 units of bank. Say, you have $7,500 that gives you 300 green chips. You bet by the true count. When you double your bankroll, that is when you have in hand $15,000, your unit becomes $50 and continue playing at that level. You try to double 300 units every time. Now, when your bank becomes $30K your unit becomes $100 , etc
As a general rule, a winning player can double his 300 unit bank in about one month of full time play. It depends how big is your average bet and what game you play.
Lets see:
month #1, bankroll = 7.5K, unit = $25
month #2, bankroll = 15K, unit = $50
month #3, bankroll = 30K, unit = $100
month #4, bankroll = 60K, unit = $200
month #5, bankroll = 120K, unit = $400
month #6, bankroll = 240K, unit = $800
month #7, bankroll = 480K, unit = $1600
month #8, bankroll = 960K, unit = $3200 (at the end of the 8th month you will have over 1M)
As you can see from the table above you will not be able to play over $800 unit because you have to spread at least 5:1 without reaching the table max. Here you have to be ready and emotionally prepared to bet $4000 when the count tells you to bet 5 units. And, more, you have to double down with another $4000 or get insurance for $2000 when the ration of non-tens/tens is bellow 2:1 .. etc. When your bankroll is 120K and your unit is $400 dont think like you have $120,000 cash and be afraid to bet $400 in negative and go all the way up to $2000. Think you are risking $7,500 cash to reach 240K next month.
The best one can expect is 200-240K in 6 months starting from $25. This is only possible if you double the unit while doubling your bankroll along the way. Every month you try to double 300 units. Of course, you can increase the unit while maintaining the same ratio of bank/unit = 300 even before the month is over. Your risk is always the same regardless what unit you play. You have to be prepared losing $7,500 in order to have a shot of making quarter million in six month time. If you cannot double 300 units in 160 hours of play you are not ready for this.
So, what you need is to have all your expenses covered for the next 6 months and have 2 or 3 banks of 300 unit each. If you lose the first one from the get go try the second one. Once you double couple times you will never look back again. But you have to be willing to risk losing $7,500 in order to be in this type of play. If you can pull this thru one time you can take a long vacation and reflect how you did it. The next time will be obvious.
However, you can start with 400 unit bank. In this case you will need 10K cash seed bank. It will take you longer to double and reach the next betting level. Probably over 200 hours of play just to double once 400 units. Do the math and find out.
card counting + doubling the unit after doubling the bank = recipe for big scores. There is no other way.
This is absolute nonsense. If this was true there would be a lot of muti millionare blackjack players out there, and casinos would be either going out of business or not offering blackjack anymore. Betting in this manner will definitely bankrupt you before you reach that ridiculous unit size of $3200, which by the way if you even tried to use in a real casino would get you booted in minutes. Its just not feasible in many ways to use a system like this with any degree of success, so please for any that don't know Alex please disregard his foolish rants. It won't be more than just a few weeks from now when he will have another brilliant method on how to win at blackjack. He is entertaining, but at the same time dangerous to any that take his advice serious. Anytime you feel that he may be giving a save all to winning at blackjack just check the history of his past posts and see how many different winning methods he's had. Something must be wrong because he hasn't ever stayed with anything very long even though it was making him a fortune. He's good for stirring up conversation, but as far as blackjack goes, I'm not even sure if he's actually ever played. Romantic notions on how to play blackjack are best left to those who choose to write more than they play. -
Bojack1 said:This is absolute nonsense. If this was true there would be a lot of muti millionare blackjack players out there, and casinos would be either going out of business or not offering blackjack anymore. Betting in this manner will definitely bankrupt you before you reach that ridiculous unit size of $3200, which by the way if you even tried to use in a real casino would get you booted in minutes. Its just not feasible in many ways to use a system like this with any degree of success, so please for any that don't know Alex please disregard his foolish rants. It won't be more than just a few weeks from now when he will have another brilliant method on how to win at blackjack. He is entertaining, but at the same time dangerous to any that take his advice serious. Anytime you feel that he may be giving a save all to winning at blackjack just check the history of his past posts and see how many different winning methods he's had. Something must be wrong because he hasn't ever stayed with anything very long even though it was making him a fortune. He's good for stirring up conversation, but as far as blackjack goes, I'm not even sure if he's actually ever played. Romantic notions on how to play blackjack are best left to those who choose to write more than they play.
Well, how much you suggest to bet at a 300-400 unit bank. Is that 5:1 appropriate?
So, for 10K bank , a $25 unit is just right. Now, how much one should bet when he doubles his bankroll? He’s got now 20K bank after two months. Is $50 unit correct?
Keep going and tell me if a player who doubles his bank five times and each time doubles his unit, doesn’t reach 250K. The example from your post with $3200 is nonsense. What I wrote in my original post is that a player can realistically play with a $800 unit. But the way most people and you play, will never make 250K or more. If one starts from 10,000 bank and bets in green for a full year of play will never make any serious money. There is only one way! – You double the unit when you double the bank! You either have the stomach to put at risk your original seed bank or never make it. If you don’t double the unit after doubling the bank and if you still f*** around with $25 unit even after doubling your bank you will windup making probably 50K per yaer. But no more!
Let’s say you reached 200K and $500 unit. At this point you still have at risk only your original 10K seed money. You cannot lose when you rich the $500 unit level. Even if lose half of your 200K bank you cut the unit to $250 and still play at a 400 unit bank and still have the same ROR like when you start. For myself, I can tell you that I will risk 10K to have the possibility to make 250K in six month time. I do it all the time.
Well, belive it or not even in today’s environment there are posibilities to make huge scores in BJ. I know for sure that is possible to win big, to win HUGE $$ in this game.
You have no arguments -
Alex,
Its good to see you posting again.Did they finally get your meds right? -
Since I joined this forum, this has to be worst thread I have followed. No wonder the game is going down the drain. Can anyone actually say they learned anything from this?
-
Jimpenn -
On the contrary. I think this is a great thread. I have learned that the game we have come to know and love is alive and well and should stay that way for the foreseeable future. As long as there are players like MJBJ who are willing to throw their money at the casino, advantaged players have nothing to fear. :)
As most of us know, if the house is losing on any game, it will be eliminated. -
jimpenn said:Since I joined this forum, this has to be worst thread I have followed. No wonder the game is going down the drain. Can anyone actually say they learned anything from this?
Not trying to be a brown-nose,but I pretty much learn something from every post Bojack makes. -
Hey Alex I have a question for you. Why if you know so much, and make so much playing blackjack, have you had to change the way you play so many different times? There was a time just a few months ago that you said with your system you could win thousands without ever having a top bet over $55. Everytime you come up with a different system it usually totally contradicts your previous one. Hell, not too long ago you even were totally against counting.But before that you were supposedly a big player on a team. Dude you just make it hard on yourself by being such a clown. If you could though please answer why all your can't miss systems keep changing.
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AlexD30 said:Well, how much you suggest to bet at a 300-400 unit bank. Is that 5:1 appropriate?
So, for 10K bank , a $25 unit is just right. Now, how much one should bet when he doubles his bankroll? He’s got now 20K bank after two months. Is $50 unit correct?
Keep going and tell me if a player who doubles his bank five times and each time doubles his unit, doesn’t reach 250K. The example from your post with $3200 is nonsense. What I wrote in my original post is that a player can realistically play with a $800 unit. But the way most people and you play, will never make 250K or more. If one starts from 10,000 bank and bets in green for a full year of play will never make any serious money. There is only one way! – You double the unit when you double the bank! You either have the stomach to put at risk your original seed bank or never make it. If you don’t double the unit after doubling the bank and if you still f*** around with $25 unit even after doubling your bank you will windup making probably 50K per yaer. But no more!
Let’s say you reached 200K and $500 unit. At this point you still have at risk only your original 10K seed money. You cannot lose when you rich the $500 unit level. Even if lose half of your 200K bank you cut the unit to $250 and still play at a 400 unit bank and still have the same ROR like when you start. For myself, I can tell you that I will risk 10K to have the possibility to make 250K in six month time. I do it all the time.
Well, belive it or not even in today’s environment there are posibilities to make huge scores in BJ. I know for sure that is possible to win big, to win HUGE $$ in this game.
You have no arguments
Been doing this stuff a long time. More than ten years ago I reached a point where my bank had hit a point where I could easily afford to up my unit size but decided not to. My reasoning went that I had hit a point of diminishing returns if I upped my bank because it would limit the number of stores I could play in, I would be watched perhaps closer where I could play, and I really do enjoy playing.
Using the example used here, way before one would get to that 3,200 unit size, they would find themselves limited where they could play and severely limited in how many hours they could get in unless they wish to be a worldwide travelor.
Perhaps I am not clear here but an individual counter will just run into more heat and less games as his unit size increases. Eventually, a point will be reached where a smaller unit size will offer more opportunity than a larger one because of games available and hours you can get in.
At this point the only options really left (besides constant hit and run travel) is team play. He can back a team or be part of a team if he plans to keep upping his blackjack profits. He can put out those big bets using different people constantly to do it for him or spread that big bet over several teammates.
The other option (what I did) was maintain my present unit size and invest blackjack income in other investments while maintaining a near constant bankroll.
It is easy to just think about constantly doubling your bank and increasing your bet and what you will do about it, till you actually get there.
ihate17 -
Andee said:Hey Alex I have a question for you. Why if you know so much, and make so much playing blackjack, have you had to change the way you play so many different times? There was a time just a few months ago that you said with your system you could win thousands without ever having a top bet over $55. Everytime you come up with a different system it usually totally contradicts your previous one. Hell, not too long ago you even were totally against counting.But before that you were supposedly a big player on a team. Dude you just make it hard on yourself by being such a clown. If you could though please answer why all your can't miss systems keep changing.
Probably 55 units not $55 unless ones playing with $1 unit .., (lol) -
AlexD30 said:Probably 55 units not $55 unless ones playing with $1 unit .., (lol)
Not quite dude. Check out your famous no lose system in your thread "23 Hours Trip" from a couple of years ago. That tells it all. You are so ridiculous. All your stupid systems are documented since you started posting. Its like reading a con mans file with all his different personas listed. I suggest reading some of your previous posts to jog your memory on how you have claimed many different winning ways. There are even some comical posts of when you were a progression player. Go ahead read your past, and then I'd like to hear an explanation as to why all of your sure fire systems needed to be changed so many times. -
Andee said:Not quite dude. Check out your famous no lose system in your thread "23 Hours Trip" from a couple of years ago. That tells it all. You are so ridiculous. All your stupid systems are documented since you started posting. Its like reading a con mans file with all his different personas listed. I suggest reading some of your previous posts to jog your memory on how you have claimed many different winning ways. There are even some comical posts of when you were a progression player. Go ahead read your past, and then I'd like to hear an explanation as to why all of your sure fire systems needed to be changed so many times.
No point in digging up old garbage. He was once a pure progression player. He was taken to task so many times that he disappeared for a while, then returned as an experienced card counter. But you have done your homework to notice the old progression posts. If you read carefully, _all_ were of the form, given the following win/lose/push scenario, here's how my progression will win. Any idiot can produce a winning progression once you know the order and number of wins and losses. The problem is that we have to play without knowing the future, and progressions simply won't work. Neither will this hunch crap AlexD30 proposes. You don't bet with your "gut". You bet according to the true count factoring in your carefully calculated betting ramp which maximizes your bankroll growth and minimizes RoR to something acceptable. There's no room for hunches, over-betting, "playing with the house's money", money management schemes (progressions), stop-loss points (except to end a session to avoid running out of money if you have a limited budget and are on a "playing vacation" and don't want to go bust before the trip ends) and other such garbage, if you want to have a chance of winning at 21. It's not too hard to figure out who you should listen to here. Bojack and Ihate17 know their stuff. Sonny's above reproach. Ray also. But when you get a slight whiff of "voodoo" just beware and read with a great deal of skepticism.
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