Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Hello, I am going to las vegas this summer either may june july or august. I am taking $5000 with me and hitting up 100 casinos. Hopefully bringing home $1million in two weeks. My plan is to win $10,000 at every casino in order to stay under the radar and so I wont have to claim taxes. My question is do they still have $10,000 as tax limit? Also my other question is my plan feasible? I'll be counting cards all the time. I haven't played blackjack for a year but still remember how to count cards. Just like riding a bike. Has anybody have any reasonable suggestions for me? Also has anybody been to Vegas recent? My last trip was about 4 years ago in 2002. It might have changed a lot since then. Any tips and suggestions much greatly appreciated.
P.S I know all the odds are and my plan seems feasible.
NYB said:If you start with a $5 bet,and martingale your winnings,this can be done quite easily. All you need do is win less than 25 hands in a row somewhere along the way.
Don't let the bastards get you down.Go with Guts.
stainless steel rat said:The casinos have a "martingale buster" already in place. It is called "table maximum". :)
NYB said:But as you people love to point out,your whole life is just one long session,so as he bumps into the max in one place,he jumps to the next.
Renzey said:Joe - In 1975, after returning from my first vacation to Vegas, I read "Beat the Dealer" and decided I was going to save up a bankroll and be a card counter. I practiced playing at home using Hi/Lo for 100,000 hands - single deck, two deck and four deck. In my practice playing, I used a 1-to-3 spread in single deck, 1-to-5 in double deck and 1-to-8 in four deck play. I knew 80 index numbers and could count in my sleep. I knew what the various rules were worth and was familiar with current penetration practices. On my chart, I was way ahead.
I scraped together a $1500 bankroll and in '76 went out there alone for nine days. Back then, there were still $2 tables. Starting with $10 base units and descending to $2 base units as the losses mounted, I lost 375 base units in 65 hours and got off the plane back home with $6 in my pocket.
Although I was "green" in some practical areas, I still played a solid enough technical game to win -- yet lost my butt. Over the past 30 years, I've had a few additional negative streaks of similar magnitude -- one even a lot worse. But one thing I've never come close to doing in all those years is win 10,000 top bets -- which is basically what your asking to do.
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:I am no normal card counter. I have been tested for Eidetic, I went to a doctor who specialized in it and says I have no normal memory but 150% memory and better.. Just up until last summer thats when I figured out I had it when I was sitting at a 4deck table, and I noticed the count automatically. So it is quite easy.. But it is really weird when I first started practicing 3 years ago when I first place I didn't even knew I had the ability. I got discouraged once, because I lost $400 on 3 hands. But the count was right and everything was right but shit just happens.. it was on a double down to. I split two aces and doubled down and the dealer made his hand. the count was like -3. muhuh but what can you do just go back and get the bastards.
stainless steel rat said:How is that a martingale? If you lose that 10K max, there's no place to go to place a 20K bet.
NYB said:If you read my post,I said martingale your winnings. If you lose your 10K bet,you start over at $5.
Sonny said:What do you do when you run out of winnings (or never see any)? Flat bet?
-Sonny-
ihate17 said:Mighty Joe
Some of us here, without fantastic memory, can sit at the table, glance quickly at all the cards and adjust our count without counting each card. For me it just came years ago after doing this for a long time.
You mentioned "shit happens" and it just about always does to some extent. Not long ago I was playing a double deck game with a huge advantage because I could see the dealers hole card just about every hand. Instead of the usual 1.5% edge I might get from counting, using hole card strategy designed not to be too obvious (you just can not hit 19 when you know the dealer has 20), I might have been playing at a 7% edge. Huge edge and they beat my butt, "shit happens". Hand after hand, even knowing what the dealer had, it seemed like I could just not win as the dealer had pat hands nearly everytime vs my stiffs and when it was reversed the dealer drew out.
Took a big loss but played the same dealer the next day and got it all back and then some but the point of this is that the variance of blackjack is tremendous. If you made a graph for each year I have played blackjack it would appear to be steadily going up with a few declines. It would look like a nice steady investment. But, if you graph it session by session it would look like a roller coaster ride, still overall heading up but with many a big dip mixed in.
ihate17
Ray said:ihate17- BJ is very much like the market. It was a slow move up from Jan until a few days back. I lost every dollar I made in Jan & Feb in one day.
As for Mighty Joe, I suggest that he buy a round-trip plane ticket......
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Could you figure out how long it would take to win $200,000 with a bankroll of $5k
NYB said:If you read my post,I said martingale your winnings. If you lose your 10K bet,you start over at $5.
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Could you figure out how long it would take to win $200,000 with a bankroll of $5k
stainless steel rat said:BTW, Sonny: would he not be resizing as his bankroll climbs?
Sonny said:Hopefully he would, so your estimates are probably more realistic than mine. Then again, he's going to make $1,000,000 in two weeks so who knows what his plan is. I wouldn't want to make too many assumptions.
-Sonny-
stainless steel rat said:Fine. But martingale says double on every loss until you win, then you start over. Anything else is not "martingale". This way you always win one unit per "streak". Unless the table max gets you, which it will. I don't see how "martingale your winnings" is going to guarantee anything except a certain RoR.
Appetite said:That is absolutely correct Bojack. But Mighty Joe Young has already declared himself a counter and a system player, definitely not a newbie. He is getting opinions whether his goal is feasible. I am just pointing out his chances when luck goes along in his favor. Statistically, in normal playing circumstances, MJY's goal is quite a far shot. Control is vital in every counter's game. With control, the goal of winning a million in two weeks is almost nearly impossible. But with skill and luck, it can be done. Just remember MJY, luck runs out but skill does not. It is still best to heed the advice of the many members here to keep your goals realistic and your play conservative. Only then will you leave Vegas with a win.
Mighty Joe Black Jack said:Hello, I am going to las vegas this summer either may june july or august. I am taking $5000 with me and hitting up 100 casinos. Hopefully bringing home $1million in two weeks. My plan is to win $10,000 at every casino in order to stay under the radar and so I wont have to claim taxes.
AlexD30 said:You have no plan!
You cant win a million playing blackjack the way you dream. If you bet strictly by the count you definitely cannot win 1M in two weeks trip. You have to have a real plan how to handle your bankroll. What I mean is that you need about 300 units of bank. Say, you have $7,500 that gives you 300 green chips. You bet by the true count. When you double your bankroll, that is when you have in hand $15,000, your unit becomes $50 and continue playing at that level. You try to double 300 units every time. Now, when your bank becomes $30K your unit becomes $100 , etc
As a general rule, a winning player can double his 300 unit bank in about one month of full time play. It depends how big is your average bet and what game you play.
Lets see:
month #1, bankroll = 7.5K, unit = $25
month #2, bankroll = 15K, unit = $50
month #3, bankroll = 30K, unit = $100
month #4, bankroll = 60K, unit = $200
month #5, bankroll = 120K, unit = $400
month #6, bankroll = 240K, unit = $800
month #7, bankroll = 480K, unit = $1600
month #8, bankroll = 960K, unit = $3200 (at the end of the 8th month you will have over 1M)
As you can see from the table above you will not be able to play over $800 unit because you have to spread at least 5:1 without reaching the table max. Here you have to be ready and emotionally prepared to bet $4000 when the count tells you to bet 5 units. And, more, you have to double down with another $4000 or get insurance for $2000 when the ration of non-tens/tens is bellow 2:1 .. etc. When your bankroll is 120K and your unit is $400 dont think like you have $120,000 cash and be afraid to bet $400 in negative and go all the way up to $2000. Think you are risking $7,500 cash to reach 240K next month.
The best one can expect is 200-240K in 6 months starting from $25. This is only possible if you double the unit while doubling your bankroll along the way. Every month you try to double 300 units. Of course, you can increase the unit while maintaining the same ratio of bank/unit = 300 even before the month is over. Your risk is always the same regardless what unit you play. You have to be prepared losing $7,500 in order to have a shot of making quarter million in six month time. If you cannot double 300 units in 160 hours of play you are not ready for this.
So, what you need is to have all your expenses covered for the next 6 months and have 2 or 3 banks of 300 unit each. If you lose the first one from the get go try the second one. Once you double couple times you will never look back again. But you have to be willing to risk losing $7,500 in order to be in this type of play. If you can pull this thru one time you can take a long vacation and reflect how you did it. The next time will be obvious.
However, you can start with 400 unit bank. In this case you will need 10K cash seed bank. It will take you longer to double and reach the next betting level. Probably over 200 hours of play just to double once 400 units. Do the math and find out.
card counting + doubling the unit after doubling the bank = recipe for big scores. There is no other way.
Bojack1 said:This is absolute nonsense. If this was true there would be a lot of muti millionare blackjack players out there, and casinos would be either going out of business or not offering blackjack anymore. Betting in this manner will definitely bankrupt you before you reach that ridiculous unit size of $3200, which by the way if you even tried to use in a real casino would get you booted in minutes. Its just not feasible in many ways to use a system like this with any degree of success, so please for any that don't know Alex please disregard his foolish rants. It won't be more than just a few weeks from now when he will have another brilliant method on how to win at blackjack. He is entertaining, but at the same time dangerous to any that take his advice serious. Anytime you feel that he may be giving a save all to winning at blackjack just check the history of his past posts and see how many different winning methods he's had. Something must be wrong because he hasn't ever stayed with anything very long even though it was making him a fortune. He's good for stirring up conversation, but as far as blackjack goes, I'm not even sure if he's actually ever played. Romantic notions on how to play blackjack are best left to those who choose to write more than they play.
jimpenn said:Since I joined this forum, this has to be worst thread I have followed. No wonder the game is going down the drain. Can anyone actually say they learned anything from this?
AlexD30 said:Well, how much you suggest to bet at a 300-400 unit bank. Is that 5:1 appropriate?
So, for 10K bank , a $25 unit is just right. Now, how much one should bet when he doubles his bankroll? He’s got now 20K bank after two months. Is $50 unit correct?
Keep going and tell me if a player who doubles his bank five times and each time doubles his unit, doesn’t reach 250K. The example from your post with $3200 is nonsense. What I wrote in my original post is that a player can realistically play with a $800 unit. But the way most people and you play, will never make 250K or more. If one starts from 10,000 bank and bets in green for a full year of play will never make any serious money. There is only one way! – You double the unit when you double the bank! You either have the stomach to put at risk your original seed bank or never make it. If you don’t double the unit after doubling the bank and if you still f*** around with $25 unit even after doubling your bank you will windup making probably 50K per yaer. But no more!
Let’s say you reached 200K and $500 unit. At this point you still have at risk only your original 10K seed money. You cannot lose when you rich the $500 unit level. Even if lose half of your 200K bank you cut the unit to $250 and still play at a 400 unit bank and still have the same ROR like when you start. For myself, I can tell you that I will risk 10K to have the possibility to make 250K in six month time. I do it all the time.
Well, belive it or not even in today’s environment there are posibilities to make huge scores in BJ. I know for sure that is possible to win big, to win HUGE $$ in this game.
You have no arguments
Andee said:Hey Alex I have a question for you. Why if you know so much, and make so much playing blackjack, have you had to change the way you play so many different times? There was a time just a few months ago that you said with your system you could win thousands without ever having a top bet over $55. Everytime you come up with a different system it usually totally contradicts your previous one. Hell, not too long ago you even were totally against counting.But before that you were supposedly a big player on a team. Dude you just make it hard on yourself by being such a clown. If you could though please answer why all your can't miss systems keep changing.
AlexD30 said:Probably 55 units not $55 unless ones playing with $1 unit .., (lol)
Andee said:Not quite dude. Check out your famous no lose system in your thread "23 Hours Trip" from a couple of years ago. That tells it all. You are so ridiculous. All your stupid systems are documented since you started posting. Its like reading a con mans file with all his different personas listed. I suggest reading some of your previous posts to jog your memory on how you have claimed many different winning ways. There are even some comical posts of when you were a progression player. Go ahead read your past, and then I'd like to hear an explanation as to why all of your sure fire systems needed to be changed so many times.
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