Statistics question, blackjack probilities.
  • If you have a 100 times volitility and have a 1% advantage how often will you be ahead after playing 1 hour or 60 hands of blackjack. If you play with a bet spread from 2-1-4 units? How do you caculate your chance of walking away a loser vs your chance of walking away a winner?
  • learningtocount said:
    If you have a 100 times volitility and have a 1% advantage how often will you be ahead after playing 1 hour or 60 hands of blackjack. If you play with a bet spread from 2-1-4 units? How do you caculate your chance of walking away a loser vs your chance of walking away a winner?


    The results of 60 hands of blackjack are impossible to differentiate from luck. Even if you play with 1% edge, your $$ result is just “noise” mangled with luck. You don’t know if you won or lost because your skill of because luck was involved.
  • Luck in gambling is only "satisitical varience"
    I worked at a casino who lost money around new year's when it was packed in there. If the Casino had a 2% average advantage and there 8,000 bets made from $20-$500 on the blackjack tables how likely is it that the casino would lose money in that day?
    I was just asking how caculate your chances of winning and losing. If you have a 1% advantage and play 60 hands at an average of $20 a hand you should average $12 an hour in profit. You will not achieve that you could win a $100 in that hour or lose a $100 in that same hour. How likely will you lose a $100?
  • learningtocount said:
    If you have a 100 times volitility and have a 1% advantage how often will you be ahead after playing 1 hour or 60 hands of blackjack.


    I don't understand the question. You have an advantage of 1% and the variance is 100 units? Or is that the SD? One SD for BJ is usually around 25-35 units, so the answer will depend greatly on what that 100 represents.

    -Sonny-

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