KO questions for Mr. Renzey
  • In the KO book, it says to surrender hard 14 vs 10 and A at the pivot point (RC = +4). Does that mean you should surrender when your hard 14 consists of 7,7 or is it better to hit?

    Also, the book provides wong out points for the 6 and 8 deck game. For the 6 deck game, the wong out points are given when 1, 2, and 3 decks have been dealt out (-22, -17, and -8 respectively). Do you know what the wong out point is for when 4 and 5 decks have been dealt? Thanks.

    MJ
  • MJ -- The KO matrix strives to simplify and round its indices for simplicity sake. But more accurately, 14 vs. 10 would be surrendered at a true count (excess count per remaining deck) of +3; and 14 vs. Ace at +5 true. So if I were using KO, I'd surrender 14 vs. 10 at a +1 running count and vs. the Ace at +6 R/C. And yes, you should surrender 7/7 vs. 10 and Ace in the same way.

    On the second matter, the KO authors have you wonging out of a six deck shoe at a true count of around -1.25. One, two and three decks in respectively, that will equal a running count of -22, -17 and -12 as their chart states. Beyond three decks in, there's not much point in wonging out since there's little shoe left. But if you're in an exceptionally deeply cut game, a running count of -7 at the four dealt deck mark would give you a -1.5 true count.
  • Renzey said:
    MJ -- The KO matrix strives to simplify and round its indices for simplicity sake. But more accurately, 14 vs. 10 would be surrendered at a true count (excess count per remaining deck) of +3; and 14 vs. Ace at +5 true. So if I were using KO, I'd surrender 14 vs. 10 at a +1 running count and vs. the Ace at +6 R/C. And yes, you should surrender 7/7 vs. 10 and Ace in the same way.


    Thanks for the reply. The reason I ask is b/c the KO book does not specifically state to surrender 7,7 vs A and 10. It just says surrender Hard 14 vs A and 10 at RC = +4 (pivot). If I run a simulation surrendering the pair of 7s and the other without surrendering the 7s, then are you saying I will win more when I surrender the pair of 7s? If I don't surrender on either of these 2 plays, then will standing or hitting win more money?

    Renzey said:
    On the second matter, the KO authors have you wonging out of a six deck shoe at a true count of around -1.25. One, two and three decks in respectively, that will equal a running count of -22, -17 and -12 as their chart states. Beyond three decks in, there's not much point in wonging out since there's little shoe left. But if you're in an exceptionally deeply cut game, a running count of -7 at the four dealt deck mark would give you a -1.5 true count.


    Interesting and insightful. It would appear as though you are true counting KO. But why are we wonging out at a TC of -1.25 and -1.5? For Hi-Lo, the wong out point is TC = -1. What is the TKO equivalent of a Hi-Lo TC of -1?
    Remember, the tag values for each system are not all the same, so I would not expect the wong out points to be exactly identical.

    MJ
  • MJ -- Actually, I do not use KO. Understand however, that in multi-deck play, 7/7 vs. 10 or Ace is very much like any other 14. If surrender is allowed, surrender at the appropriate positive count. If you can't surrender, hit it.

    On wongouts; wongout points are arbitrary. Personally, and largely as a practical matter, I don't wong out until the count reaches -2 true, but play all the -1 true indices in the interim. If you'd like to wong out sooner - or later, you can determine the KO equivalent R/C just by adding 4 positive points to your IRC for each deck played, then subtracting 1 point from that for each deck that remains.
  • Renzey said:
    MJ -- Actually, I do not use KO. Understand however, that in multi-deck play, 7/7 vs. 10 or Ace is very much like any other 14. If surrender is allowed, surrender at the appropriate positive count. If you can't surrender, hit it.


    Got it.

    Renzey said:
    On wongouts; wongout points are arbitrary. Personally, and largely as a practical matter, I don't wong out until the count reaches -2 true, but play all the -1 true indices in the interim. If you'd like to wong out sooner - or later, you can determine the KO equivalent R/C just by adding 4 positive points to your IRC for each deck played, then subtracting 1 point from that for each deck that remains.


    I see what your doing. Very clever! :) For example, after playing through one deck with an IRC of -20, we add +4 to the IRC which equals -16. I then subtract 5, which puts the RC at -21. The excess is -5 with 5 decks remaining, hence the wong out point is an RC of -21 after 1 deck has been played. Do you by any chance know the EV for TKO values of -1? Thanks for all your help!

    MJ
  • MJ -- a TKO of -1 should be an EV of right around -0.95% in a typical shoe game.

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