Question for Fred Renzey, re: KISS III indices
  • Hope this thread is ok here, being a direct question for Fred Renzey (or of course, anyone else who might have an answer).

    I'm trying to decide on exactly how far to go with my studying of different things with the KISS III count. I've got the counting downpat, and know a few of the important index numbers from the chart on page 155 of Bluebook II.

    My question is about the surrender indices on page 158. What kind of difference can I expect in my EV by memorizing and using those index numbers, compared with just surrendering those hands every time I see them, ala basic strategy?

    I'm not anywhere near a full time player, and just trying to decide how much to actually try and commit to memory. For example I am not memorizing all 21 advantage strategy index numbers, since 16 vs 10 and insurance make up for almost all (0.63% vs 0.70%) of the EV gain. I'm wondering how close the percentages are for using your surrender indices compared to just basic strategy surrender.

    Thanks in advance! :)
  • makes a difference. But not a big difference. Norm W. posted a chart over on AP.com that showed just how little the indices add once you get the I-18 indices plus the surrender (fab-4) indices into your game. Going to "full indices" doesn't add enough to spit on, and for many players they hurt if you use them incorrectly.

    By all means learn the basic surrender indices as they tend to reduce the variance of the game since you have a big bet out in a high-probability-losing situation, and you can cut your losses to 50% for that particular hand, which is a big deal with a big bet riding. Note that this is just the so-called "fab-4" surrender index set, not all the possible surrender indices one could dream up.

    14 vs T
    15 vs 9
    15 vs 10
    15 vs A
  • Barrels -- Learning all the surrender indices on page 158 of Bluebook II can boost your EV about 0.22% over no surrender at all in a shoe game with a 1-to-10 spread. I have not run any sims for learning just some of them, but as SSR pointed out and is noted in Schlesinger's "Blackjack Attack", the four most important indices are 14 vs. 10, 15 vs. 9, 15 vs. 10 and 15 vs. A -- with 14 vs. 10 being worth more than the other three combined.

    As for 16 vs. 9, 10 or A, you could just surrender them all the time to keep things simple.
  • Barrels -- When I get a chance, I'll run sims using basic strategy surrender with KISS III and a 1-to-10 spread, then no surrender. That could then be compared to the +0.22% EV for full index surrender.
  • That would be great, thanks!

    Man, how cool is it to be able to ask Fred friggin' Renzey a question and have him go run some sims for you. Unbelievable.

    :)
  • Hi Fred, I have one more question for you. I'll post it here instead of starting a new thread.

    I was reading about the Lucky Ladies sidebet, and how it's recommended to play it when the TC >= +7 in Hi-Lo. What count would this be equivalent to using the KISS III count? Is there a chart that shows what approximate TC number we would be at when at certain KISS III numbers?

    Thanks!
  • Barrels -- Page 174 of Bluebook's 2006 edition shows a table of true count equivalents for running counts at various shoe depths. The table only runs up thru an R/C of "29", which in general, is less than +7 true (usually around +5 T/C). A +7 true count will only arise in the later part of the shoe and will normally be equal to a running count of about "31".

    BTW, I'm still running those surrender index sims.
  • Renzey said:
    Barrels -- Page 174 of Bluebook's 2006 edition shows a table of true count equivalents for running counts at various shoe depths. The table only runs up thru an R/C of "29", which in general, is less than +7 true (usually around +5 T/C). A +7 true count will only arise in the later part of the shoe and will normally be equal to a running count of about "31".

    BTW, I'm still running those surrender index sims.


    Some see that lucky ladies approach and think "wow, money in the bank." Only problem is they might make the bet once a week. :) +7's are not very common unless you drop into DD/SD games and get away from shoes...
  • Both_Barrels said:


    I'm trying to decide on exactly how far to go with my studying of different things with the KISS III count. I'm wondering how close the percentages are for using all KISS surrender indices compared to just basic strategy surrender.


    Barrels -- I ran a bunch of 1 billion hand sims and without all the fanfare, here's what it came down to. With a 1-to-10 spread in an S17 six deck game, having surrender and using the eight indices from page 158 increased the EV by 0.20% over no surrender. Just surrendering the four basic strategy hands all the time and no others still netted a 0.18% gain in EV over no surrender. I was surprised.
  • Fred, Does the spread of 10 to 1 have a major impact on the gain in EV?
    In the same game with same rules if the spread was cut in half to 1 to 5, what would the EV gain be? 10 to 1 spread is a little rich for me!!
  • sage01 said:
    In the same game with same rules if the spread was cut in half to 1 to 5, what would the EV gain be?


    Sage -- Without running more sims, I'll just say that with flat bets, basic strategy surrender is worth 0.07% rather than 0.18%.
  • Thank you very much, Fred. I really appreciate you taking the time to run those for me.

    I'm a bit surprised too! :)
  • Both_Barrels said:
    Thank you very much, Fred. I really appreciate you taking the time to run those for me. I'm a bit surprised too! :)


    Sometimes questions on these forums lead me to find out things I didn't know.

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