ive got a few questions...
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at my local casino (called AVI) they have a single deck game and the rules are like spanish 21, but they dont take out the 10's. i was wondering what the chances are to make a deal with the house if i were to ever be spotted as a counter. would they let me gamble there still for fun and for practice, and keep what i lose and if i win they still keep the money? if i flat bet normally, would they think twice if i started to spread? and is it ok to make friends with the dealers or pit bosses? or would that just make me more well known? if i double down for someone on their hand, should i take the money i make, or should i be nice and let them have the profit? ok, heres the last question, how good would it be for me to practice drinking while counting and playing? i am a drinker, and i think with just a little bit of pratice i could do it easily. and i also think that it would be a decent cover too..... thanks everyone for reading this.
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You want to play where if you win, you give the money back. If you lose you lose?
How much blackjack have you played? I ask that because of the nature of variance within blackjack. If you are capable of making $100 per hour, it will often work this way: You play a session (2 hours) and lose $4,000 and then the next identical session you win $4,400. So for 4 hours you made $400 but if I understand you, you want to lose $4,000 in the first session and give the $4,400 back in the second?
ihate17 -
Wayne said:i think that was right, but now that its coming from someone elses mouth it sounds really stupid to do that.....
Wayne
If you can incorporate drinking into cover, it can be helpful. Let us say that they know you in this casino but have not singled you out as a winning counter. If they know you, they know you drink and if you can play perfectly with a little booze in you, it can create cover. What many players do is nurse their drinks, order every other drink as something that looks like alcohol but is not, or sometimes dump your drink on a bathroom break. In other words look like you are having 3 for every 1 you really have.
As far as making a special deal with the casino goes. You must answer two questions here to even begin to think about it.
1. What is the benifit to the casino?
2. What is the benifit to myself?
Many casinos do let counters play. They might not have figured things out. The counter may be a losing counter and the casino knows it. The counter plays at a low level that the casino really does not care. Depends on the casino, the profieciency of their game protection people, and the sweat level of their management.
If I knew more about the things that add up to play or backoff, I might be able to give you a feeling.
Your bet level, how good you actually are, the typical bet levels in this casino, do they sweat the money, are their pit and eye folks any good at their job, and a bunch of other factors.
Using Vegas as an example:
A guy spreading $10-$100 most likely could play forever at the MGM and receive no heat, not be rated and get no comps.
A guy with the same spread, playing a game not as good, at Bill's (old Barbary Coast) will probably be backed off in less than an hour if he is winning.
ihate17 -
its a small casino and they do have some regular blackjack players. so im sure they would know i drink coronas. and i dont like mixed drinks, i would rather drink it straigh so buying drinks that look like alcohol is a no go for me. i dont chug my beers, but i dont nurse them either. the other night i was flat betting using BS, and i left with more than i came with. i was there for ( i say like 3 hours tops, but my cousin says 5 hours). i had about 6-8 beers while i was playing. so i would generally like to drink enough to make it look like im drinking to impair my judgement. i think the gains of the casino and making a deal would be them most always making profit from me. and the only thing i would gain is a hole in my pocket, a good time, and more practice. i dont think i would try to make a deal like that tho, now that ive thought about it. i think i would keep my bet spread at 1-5 or 1-6. i have seen people that dont flat bet and throw away like 100$ a hand, which is pretty amusing to me. the pit boss has been watching the table only once that i know of while i was playing, but there were some drunk assholes being ignorant at the table, and i was flat betting, so i dont think it was me. i appreciate the input. and if you have any more specific questions, i would be glad to try to answer them. thanks again.
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Wayne
You have already figured out that many people who do not count, raise and lower their bets all the time for no practical reason. Though you will be doing this along with the count, it only sticks out in the mind of the pit if they happen to be counting along with you. Many small casinos do not have an expert "counter catcher" but many small casinos just sweat the money and try to make anyone who is winning really nervous. The interesting thing about this is that the guy who is just lucky and has never read a book that mentions anything about pit heat, will not even notice this often, while it will make a new counter really nervous because he just read about it. Do not let them know they are sweating but probably shortly anyway.
If you can play on a table with at least one non counter who is betting more than you, that person will get more attention off the top than you. Also, remember someone betting and losing $100 is no big deal in the world of casino betting and in fact means probably nothing. While $100 might seem like a lot of money to you, you do not know the circumstances of the person losing that bet. He may very well have so much money that $100 to him is far less than $5 to you. I sat at a blackjack table once with a very famous basketball player who was betting at least $10,000 per hand and losing big. This guy made over 10 million a year playing ball and perhaps another 10 million in endorsements, so to him perhaps anything less was not worth it.
ihate17 -
ihate17 said:Wayne
The interesting thing about this is that the guy who is just lucky and has never read a book that mentions anything about pit heat, will not even notice this often, while it will make a new counter really nervous because he just read about it. Do not let them know they are sweating but probably shortly anyway.
ihate17
i dont understand the last sentcance in that quote. to me, it means dont let them know that they are making me nervous. thats all i really understand. but probably shortly anyway is confusing to me. im guessing you left out a word. would that word be leave?
other than that, i think i understand everything you said. last night my cousin and i were playing 21, and i was dealing while he was practicing bs. we kept the count (with chips to make sure it was right). and every deck we played (single deck), he made money and never lost money. if im right, i thought that counting doesnt always result in gaining units, i thought you could just as easily lose them too. is it possible the reason why he kept winning is because the count was always positive? or was it just luck? after i let him play for a while, we would take turns dealing and the other would count. the count almost always came out right, and still we were always winning units at the end of the deck. i dont mean we won every hand, but we just came out with more units at the end of each deck. should i try to teach my cousin how to become an AP? he is only 17 now, and he is really interested in it, and he can keep track of the count really well. i know im not too knowledgeable about counting and AP, but i think i have the princibles down. is the true count always higher than the running count in a single deck? i read that somewhere but in not positive. i dont mean its always plus, but i mean if its -2, it would really be more like -3 or -4 maybe? im sorry i write so much at a time and it takes forever to read my posts, but if you have to learn, you must ask what you dont know. and once more, thanks a lot Ih17. -
winning every session is just pure luck. It _will_ run out. But the long-run is your friend as it will bring things back to expectation.
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Wayne said:i dont understand the last sentcance in that quote. to me, it means dont let them know that they are making me nervous. thats all i really understand. but probably shortly anyway is confusing to me. im guessing you left out a word. would that word be leave?
other than that, i think i understand everything you said. last night my cousin and i were playing 21, and i was dealing while he was practicing bs. we kept the count (with chips to make sure it was right). and every deck we played (single deck), he made money and never lost money. if im right, i thought that counting doesnt always result in gaining units, i thought you could just as easily lose them too. is it possible the reason why he kept winning is because the count was always positive? or was it just luck? after i let him play for a while, we would take turns dealing and the other would count. the count almost always came out right, and still we were always winning units at the end of the deck. i dont mean we won every hand, but we just came out with more units at the end of each deck. should i try to teach my cousin how to become an AP? he is only 17 now, and he is really interested in it, and he can keep track of the count really well. i know im not too knowledgeable about counting and AP, but i think i have the princibles down. is the true count always higher than the running count in a single deck? i read that somewhere but in not positive. i dont mean its always plus, but i mean if its -2, it would really be more like -3 or -4 maybe? im sorry i write so much at a time and it takes forever to read my posts, but if you have to learn, you must ask what you dont know. and once more, thanks a lot Ih17.
OK, I responded to your follow-up, but since you referenced your other questions, I'll take a stab at them here...
1. No, the TC is not always larger than the running count in SD. For the first 13 cards dealt, the TC and RC are the same. Actually depends on how you estimate/round/truncate/floor, but you get the drift. Once 1/4 deck has been played, the TC will be bigger or smaller than the RC, depending on whether it is positive or negative. RC=+3 gives a TC of +4 with 3/4 deck left to deal. A RC of -3 gives a TC of -4 at the same point.
2. Ihate17 was trying to tell you that part of the "heat" equation is based on the player. If you appear to get more nervous as they watch your play, then they will watch your play even more. If you appear to not give a rip, chances are they won't either as they have better things to do unless you have played enough to give away your "secret". But they certainly know that new counters react negatively to attention and they use that as a "tell" regularly. -
Wayne said:i dont understand the last sentcance in that quote. to me, it means dont let them know that they are making me nervous. thats all i really understand. but probably shortly anyway is confusing to me. im guessing you left out a word. would that word be leave?
other than that, i think i understand everything you said. last night my cousin and i were playing 21, and i was dealing while he was practicing bs. we kept the count (with chips to make sure it was right). and every deck we played (single deck), he made money and never lost money. if im right, i thought that counting doesnt always result in gaining units, i thought you could just as easily lose them too. is it possible the reason why he kept winning is because the count was always positive? or was it just luck? after i let him play for a while, we would take turns dealing and the other would count. the count almost always came out right, and still we were always winning units at the end of the deck. i dont mean we won every hand, but we just came out with more units at the end of each deck. should i try to teach my cousin how to become an AP? he is only 17 now, and he is really interested in it, and he can keep track of the count really well. i know im not too knowledgeable about counting and AP, but i think i have the princibles down. is the true count always higher than the running count in a single deck? i read that somewhere but in not positive. i dont mean its always plus, but i mean if its -2, it would really be more like -3 or -4 maybe? im sorry i write so much at a time and it takes forever to read my posts, but if you have to learn, you must ask what you dont know. and once more, thanks a lot Ih17.
Wayne
Yes, the word was leave. SSR explained what I was trying to say about heat and their watching your reactions, perfectly. Then leaving under these circumstances is a good idea but not too quickly where they think they made you feel guilty (a real bad choice of words) and ran off. Their attention drops and they are not watching you, leave you now may be being evaluated from the eye, you lose a few in a row and the count is poor, leave the so call Flow has changed, get a cell phone call make like you are speaking to someone and tell them you will be there shortly. Loads of reasons to leave.
If you can come up with the ability to scan a table in a second and adjust the count while keeping up a running conversation, it comes in handy at these times. Recently, I was having a good session at this casino and put a near table max bet on the table which brought a floorman to right behind my left shoulder. As the cards are being dealt, I am asking him about other games and then which restaurant he thinks is the best they have. I get a pair 9's and the dealer is showing an 8, so I ask the pit what the right play is and surprise surprise (now I know this guy at least knows BS) he tells me split is the right play. While all this goes on I have adjusted the count. As any regular player would, I tell him that I thought so but putting out so much money is really nerve racking and what if each 9 gets a 7?. He lies and says he will root for me. I did split, got two winners. He congratulates me and volunteers a nice comp meal and leaves me alone. I played another half hour or so, and then left.
Thing is a decent pit can catch a new counter. They do not expect that you can count and hold down a conversation and will often start a conversation because of that (I start them for them). They also do not expect you to ask for advice if you are a counter. Of course some pits might give you terrible advice. In that case I generally will lie, tell them I know they are correct but I am going with my gut, and make the correct play.
ihate17 -
stainless steel rat said:
1. No, the TC is not always larger than the running count in SD. For the first 13 cards dealt, the TC and RC are the same. Actually depends on how you estimate/round/truncate/floor, but you get the drift. Once 1/4 deck has been played, the TC will be bigger or smaller than the RC, depending on whether it is positive or negative. RC=+3 gives a TC of +4 with 3/4 deck left to deal. A RC of -3 gives a TC of -4 at the same point.
what do you mean by truncate and floor? and also, you said, "For the first 13 cards dealt, the TC and RC are the same.", then you went on to say, "Once 1/4 deck has been played, the TC will be bigger or smaller than the RC, depending on whether it is positive or negative.". 13 cards is 1/4 of the deck. so did you mean after 1/4 or more has been dealt the TC will change, and the first 1/4 of the deck the RC and TC is pretty much the same?
again, thanks to both of you for helping out. -
Wayne said:what do you mean by truncate and floor? and also, you said, "For the first 13 cards dealt, the TC and RC are the same.", then you went on to say, "Once 1/4 deck has been played, the TC will be bigger or smaller than the RC, depending on whether it is positive or negative.". 13 cards is 1/4 of the deck. so did you mean after 1/4 or more has been dealt the TC will change, and the first 1/4 of the deck the RC and TC is pretty much the same?
again, thanks to both of you for helping out.
round, floor and truncate are math terms. Round I assume you understand. 3/4 = 1. 2/4 = 1. Everything is rounded to the next largest whole number.
truncate just drops the fractional part. 1.25 = 1, 1.99 = 1, -3.5 = -3, etc...
floor is the same as truncate for positive numbers, but for negative numbers it becomes -1.25 = -2, -1.88 = -2, etc. The reason for flooring is what happens around a TC = 0?
If you truncate (the most common approach), everything from -.99 to +.99 becomes zero, you have a single true-count value (0) that really covers 2x the range of any other true count value. For example, TC= +1 covers the range of 1.00 - 1.99..
Flooring solves that. Any fractional number floors _down_ to the next smallest whole number...
I do 1/4 deck resolution in a single-deck game. I know some that do 1/8 but I simply stick with quarter-decks. And that gives me 52 possible remaining deck fractions:
52/52, 51/52, ..., 1/52
I use 52/52 ... to 40/52 as being the same as one deck left. When I get to 39/52 it becomes 3/4 decks left. 27/52 is also 3/4 left. 26/52 becomes 1/2 deck left, etc. I chose _this method (as did many others) to be conservative. Once you get to 3/4 deck, the running count produces a true count that is bigger than the RC. This approach is more conservative as for the first 13 cards dealt, I treat it like a full deck is left which is more conservative when doing the TC conversion, so that I am not as likely to make a big bet until I really have an advantage. So your understanding of what I was saying was correct...
The most important thing is to use playing indices that match your remaining deck estimation approach. There are floored, truncated and rounded indices. You should use the ones that match your approach. Most do not do rounding, as that is harder mentally. Truncating is more natural, and flooring is only important in negative counts anywhere, where you ought to have a minimal bet out anyway. -
NYB said:Wayne,
Are you referring to Avi,outside of Bullhead City? If so,I believe you can find better games in Laughlin,which is what,ten miles away?
yeah, thats the avi im talking about. yeah laughlin is real close, but my mom goes to the avi often. and i usually flat bet at their fun 21 game. what is your guys opinions of the fun 21 games? i read something about them yesterday on another forum, and i think it said they arent that good actually. so you live around that area NYB? what casinos should i try in laughlin? -
Wayne said:thanks, my friends all go to the riverside quite a bit so i was thinking about playing there pretty often when i learn to count really well. do they deal any SD tables there? and i appreciate the advice about SF21, but i think i will give it a try, and see how bad it is.
I haven't been to Laughlin in about 2 years, but I found SD games scattered around, also some good DD games. I think the Belle had one that was dealt Ro6 but the dealer actually dealt Ro7 when I played heads up...
Main thing is to take some time and scout first, as conditions change fairly frequently and you might miss a really good game just because they had really crappy games the last time you looked.
Tunica games change about as often as the weather, for example. What was good in January is lousy in April and vice-versa. -
Wayne said:what does Ro6 and Ro7 mean? i dont think ive ever heard that term before.
most single-deck games use a fixed number of rounds per shuffle. Ro6 = rule of 6. Number of players + number of rounds = 6. 1 player gets dealt 5 rounds before a shuffle, 2 get dealt 4 rounds, etc. Ro7 is better as you get another round dealt, which is deeper penetration favoring a card counter. But Ro6 is good enough to beat if you don't play at a full table. 5 players gets one round and then a shuffle which give you no opportunity to vary your bet... -
thanks for varifying. now i need to know about true count. if i were to play SD, how would i round the deck if there was more than 1/2 left, but not quite 3/4 left? would i round the deck estimation up or down? i think i would round it up, and that would make the running count lower. if that doesnt make sense, ill try to repeat what i mean.
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Wayne said:thanks for varifying. now i need to know about true count. if i were to play SD, how would i round the deck if there was more than 1/2 left, but not quite 3/4 left? would i round the deck estimation up or down? i think i would round it up, and that would make the running count lower. if that doesnt make sense, ill try to repeat what i mean.
The answer depends on the system you are using and how the indices were computed. But the idea I use is conservative. In a SD game, until 13 cards are dealt, I call the "remaining decks" 1.0. Once the 13th card falls, I call the remaining decks 3/4 or .75. And I stick here until another 13 are dealt. And now I am at 1/2 (.5) decks left. You don't get much below this point (in an optimal Ro6 game, you playing heads up but playing two spots on the table, you will get 4 rounds dealt (4 rounds + 2 spots = 6). 4 rounds of 3 hands per round (counting the dealer) with an average of 2.7 cards per hand gives 12 * 2.7 cards dealt, or 32 cards dealt. Which has not gotten us down to 13 cards left which would be 1/4 deck remaining...
If you choose to truncate, after 1 card is dealt you would call that 3/4 decks left, which would over-estimate the true-count and your advantage, increasing your risk of ruin somewhat. If you round, which is perfectly OK, you say 1 deck remains until the 7th card is dealt, then you round to 3/4 deck for the next 13 cards. I find this harder, and you are slightly over-estimating your advantage after 7 cards have been dealt, and you are under-estimating your advantage slightly as 20 cards have been dealt.
Main thing is to find a deck estimation approach you can live with and do accurately and without any mental effort.
1/8 deck resolution is marginally better than 1/4 deck, but it is significantly harder when you deal with fractions like 5/8 and so forth. Exact resolution is even better but 41/52 is beyond most of us and you will end up losing the count while doing the math gyrations necessary to compute the true count.
1/4 will work just fine.
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